Preaching patience with Chris Davis...

[El Gordo]

It would be silly to give up on Chris Davis. He's been exposed to the challenges of playing full-time and he hasn't embarrassed himself. He has plenty of potential.

And there is no evidence that players need to "learn how to hit" at different positions. In fact, there's evidence that that concept doesn't exist (except for DH). And, intuitively, it makes no sense anyway. A standard case of trying too hard to find explanations for what is almost always just random variation around a player's true talent. I'm sure you could find a couple dozen players in the MLB whose OPS varies convincingly with the phase of the moon, just because that's how normal distributions work. And that's why correlation doesn't equal causation, and why it requires a little advanced statistical analysis to determine whether or not a correlation is strong or weak.

If you want to find the reason for his slump, you need to look at how pitchers pitched to him when he was hitting, and how they have adjusted since then. That will be 90 % of the explanation IMO. That and the fact that Chris switched from Jockies to Boxers on the day he first started in RF and hasn't changed that since.

[OFFNY]

Why didn't you bold the first part Tony's sentence? He sees that the slump corresponds to the move to the offense. Though he may not accept it as THE REASON. He doesn't reject it as a factor. Instead he notes it.

Because he noted it, and then he immediately gave numbers from a similar slump earlier in the season to show that it was not necessarily the reason ...... in fact, he said that he didn't think that it was the reason. You, on the other hand, were telling Hazewood that he was ignoring your small sample size reference about Davis' numbers as though he were being obstinate. He wasn't. He was pointing out that little if anything can be drawn from it, which right now, is correct. He wasn't "twisting" any data.

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[CA-ORIOLE]

If you want to find the reason for his slump, you need to look at how pitchers pitched to him when he was hitting, and how they have adjusted since then. That will be 90 % of the explanation IMO. That and the fact that Chris switched from Jockies to Boxers on the day he first started in RF and hasn't changed that since.

Have any Jockies to Boxers data to support that?

[wildcard]

Simple question. Reynolds played attrocious 3B last year. Clearly it troubled him. But it didn't effect his offense last season. He had a fairly typical season with the bat. Why wouldn't this disprove your theiory using your correlation logic. Also Reynolds appears to be much more comfortable at 1B this year, and yet he is having a poor year with the bat. I might buy into your notion about Davis, if he appeared to be struggling in the OF, but he actually looks more comfortable to me.

I agree with Buck. These guys are not robots. Clearly Reynolds was comfortable at 3B. He hit well there. Now you move him to a new position he may or may not adapt well. So far he has not adapted at the plate well. Does that mean he will not start hitting at 1B? No. Just like it does not mean that tonight Davis may start a hitting streak while playing the OF. But when a manager changes a player's position you have wait to see the results. Some adapt right away. Some adjust in time. Some never do. Each player is different.

[SurhoffRules]

If you want to find the reason for his slump, you need to look at how pitchers pitched to him when he was hitting, and how they have adjusted since then. That will be 90 % of the explanation IMO. That and the fact that Chris switched from Jockies to Boxers on the day he first started in RF and hasn't changed that since.

I did this earlier in the thread. I didn't see a substantial change in pitch type month over month but there is a pretty notable drop in his ability to hit the fastball. Admittedly, this says nothing about pitch location.

[wildcard]

Because he noted it, and then he immediately gave evidence that it is not necessarily the reason, in fact, he said that he didn't think that it was the reason. You, on the other hand, were telling Hazewood that he was ignoring your small sample size reference about Davis' numbers as though he were being obstinate. He wasn't. He was pointing out that little if anything can be drawn from it, which right now, is correct. He wasn't "twisting" any data.

He said that Davis played the OF for a week and a half when its been 5 weeks. That is twisting.

[El Gordo]

Have any Jockies to Boxers data to support that?

I do, but that might compromise my source.

[El Gordo]

I agree with Buck. These guys are not robots. Clearly Reynolds was comfortable at 3B. He hit well there. Now you move him to a new position he may or may not adapt well. So far he has not adapted at the plate well. Does that mean he will not start hitting at 1B? No. Just like it does not mean that tonight Davis may start a hitting streak while playing the OF. But when a manager changes a player's position you have wait to see the results. Some adapt right away. Some adjust in time. Some never do. Each player is different.

This is just wacky. In what way was Reynolds comfortable at 3B? You think he wasn't troubled with making 28 E's there. If he was comfortable there, why did he lose all that weight over the winter? Also if you look at the SSS numbers you seem to love you'll see that he has hit better over his carrer as a 1B than a 3B. None of this means anything statistically.

[OFFNY]

He said that Davis played the OF for a week and a half when its been 5 weeks. That is twisting.

OK, my bad on that. But his (and several others') overall point is correct though about it being a small sample size, plus slumps earlier in the season when he wasn't playing the outfield, hence little (if anything) can be drawn from it.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, I am not trying to say that there are not other factors involved with Davis slump. And no one can prove anything here. But it is worth noting that when Davis started playing the OF his slump started. Everyone can draw their own conclusion.

I hear what you are saying, but unless I hear from Davis say playing the outfield has affected his hitting, I'm going to say it's more of a coincidence. I do think being comfortable in the field helps hitting, but its not like Davis is playing shortstop and committing a bunch of errors and taking that to the plate. Davis has been solid for the most part in left field. I'm not sure why his slump is anything more than a coincidence under these circumstances.

BTW, speaking of this slump, I didn't go past last year, but this is Davis' worse slump in the last two years when it comes longevity. Maybe a day or two off with some extra BP and cage work might be in order to clear the head a bit.

[wompfump]

Jon, you are really better than this. There is no reason to twist data like this. I am going to start thinking that you are running for office with this kind of fault statement.

Davis played his first game in RF on June 15th. That is 5 weeks ago. He was hitting .306 at the time. He is now at .261.

The OH always tries to keep data accurate if we can. Lets hold to that practice.

Oh come on, Drungo's right. You need to understand how sample sizes work. Chris Davis' sample size is so small, and inconsistent in terms of when he got those ABs, that at this point they're irrelevant?

You do realize that a full season's worth of data isn't even enough of a sample size, right? There are plenty of fluke seasons.

The fact that YOU'RE trying to twist data when Davis' numbers are HIGHER than his career norms, is pretty ridiculous.

[wildcard]

Oh come on, Drungo's right. You need to understand how sample sizes work. Chris Davis' sample size is so small, and inconsistent in terms of when he got those ABs, that at this point they're irrelevant?

You do realize that a full season's worth of data isn't even enough of a sample size, right? There are plenty of fluke seasons.

The fact that YOU'RE trying to twist data when Davis' numbers are HIGHER than his career norms, is pretty ridiculous.

I agree that from a ideal statistic standpoint you are right. However, from a baseball standpoint that is not how it works. Managers do not have a 1000 at bats to draw on the make many of their decision on who plays and when. It is often done with much, much less data. The manager make his decision with what he has.

[wildcard]

This is just wacky. In what way was Reynolds comfortable at 3B? You think he wasn't troubled with making 28 E's there. If he was comfortable there, why did he lose all that weight over the winter? Also if you look at the SSS numbers you seem to love you'll see that he has hit better over his carrer as a 1B than a 3B. None of this means anything statistically.

Why would errors at 3B make Reynolds uncomfortable? He has been making 20-30 a year for 4 years. That was normal for him. And prior to mid year last year Reynolds had no history of playing at 1B in the majors.

[Babypowder]

Why would errors at 3B make Reynolds uncomfortable? He has been making 20-30 a year for 4 years. That was normal for him. And prior to mid year last year Reynolds had no history of playing at 1B in the majors.

Reynolds played 229 innings of 1B in Arizona.

[SrMeowMeow]

I mean, this whole correlation thing is like logical fallacy number one. If there was an America's Most Wanted for logical fallacies, correlation-vs.-causation would be on it every day. The bounty would be high.