Run Differential / Pythag Discussion

[hoosiers]

This is downright laughable. The O's "simply have a lower margin of victory than is normal." Lower than what? Every other team in the history of the game. LOL.

There's no shame in admitting they've outperformed their pythag record. Really, there isn't. I don't understand the objection to it.

Well, there should be some shame in failing to understand the statistics you quote.

[Pickles]

Well, there should be some shame in failing to understand the statistics you quote.

C'mon, man, you're really taking this, like, personal.

I really don't understand it.

There's such a thing called pythag theorem, that predicts how many games a team "should" have won, based on the amount of runs they have scored and allowed. It's very accurate, although there are some outliers, but even the outliers aren't too extreme. This is w 1000s and 1000s of data points.

The 2012 Orioles are an outlier from the pythag theorem.

What is the shame in admitting that? And why the hostility?

[DrungoHazewood]

Whatever. You want to pull some RS and RA and divide by number of games and call it quality sabermetrics, kudos to you.

I don't know what you're getting all upset about. There's a rule of thumb, I remark that the O's aren't just violating it, but violating it by just about the most in recorded history. That's true. It's everyone else who's trying to drill down far enough into the noise to tease out meaning and causal relationships where there probably aren't any.

Ha ha. You are funny. Statistics don't follow your models and its all luck.

The 2012 Orioles certainly follow the models. The models don't say if you're outscored you'll lose all your games. They say a team that scores X and allows Y will have a probability of winning Z% of their games. The Orioles are on the very far tail of the distribution curve, they didn't jump over to some other distribution curve in another dimension.

[El Gordo]

By my count which is probably off by one or two, we have won 14 G by 1 R. We have lost 15 G by 5 R or more, for a total -127 RD.

[Lucky Jim]

Pythag 2, Electric Bugaloo

Pythag 3, Bride of Pythag

Pythag 4, Pythag Lives

Pythag 5, Pythag in Manhattan

Sequels suck.

[SilentJames]

Pythag 2, Electric Bugaloo

Pythag 3, Bride of Pythag

Pythag 4, Pythag Lives

Pythag 5, Pythag in Manhattan

Sequels suck.

Pythag 6: The Pythagening, this time its pythageral

[whynot38]

Only one differential that matters to me and we're +11 in that category this year. All the rest is BS

[Lucky Jim]

Pythag 6: The Pythagening, this time its pythageral

Exactly. With Pythag in Dolby audio and ultracrisp Pythag-o-vision.

[SilentJames]

Exactly. With Pythag in Dolby audio and ultracrisp Pythag-o-vision.

For the complete pythag experience

[Lucky Jim]

For the complete pythag experience

In honor of the great Monty Pythag:

Those who criticize pythag.

[video=youtube;zKhEw7nD9C4]

Those who defend it.

[video=youtube;cV0tCphFMr8]

[SilentJames]

<object width="420" height="315"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfduUFF_i1A?version=3&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfduUFF_i1A?version=3&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="420" height="315" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object>

What sports is like to some.

[Lucky Jim]

<object width="420" height="315"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfduUFF_i1A?version=3&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfduUFF_i1A?version=3&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="420" height="315" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object>

What sports is like to some.

Yeah. That's pretty much me, to a T.

[SilentJames]

Yeah. That's pretty much me, to a T.

bearded and robed, with pretty decent footwork?

[Lucky Jim]

bearded and robed, with pretty decent footwork?

Oh, I meant the announcer. What, you don't read my posts in the voice of Michael Palin? Trust me, it helps them go down.*

*Out-of-context-thread.

[LibertyTerp]

Only one differential that matters to me and we're +11 in that category this year. All the rest is BS

Don't you hate people who use math and science? What BS!

You may not personally be interested in the hard statistical evidence that the best way to predict future results is based on run differential and not W/L percentage but that doesn't make it BS. It's a mathematically proven fact. I'm actually really intrigued by why people love to dismiss facts like this. I think in this case it's that people think ignoring new fangled statistics demonstrates that they are a true fan of traditional baseball, with all the emotional good stuff that comes with. But you can realize that Wins are what really matters while also recognizing that run differential is a far better predictor of future performance.

Although with the addition of Gonzalez and Tillman, both pitching incredible, and Reynolds finally starting to hit I think we are very likely to perform better than would be expected based on our pythagorean expectations.