Run Differential / Pythag Discussion

[Malike]

It seems so simple to me. We've managed to buck the pythag for the first 110 games. We've been quite lucky. The differential over the course of the next 52 games is what matters, now. I'm sure we won't continue to win enough to stay in the race if the differential doesn't improve. If we score more runs then our opponents over the course of the next 52 games, we'll be in good shape. The run differential is something like -55 now? I remember checking not so long ago, and it was a staggering -84, I believe. First 110 games are gone, our record is what it is. The next 52 it has to get better, or we'll likely be out of it by the end of the month.

[Dark Helmet]

I was just using it as an opportunity to use "They're" in this thread.

I just wanted to use john kruk and Harold Reynolds in the same thread that included analyst

[El Gordo]

Suppose you have a SP who over the course of 10 GS had 8 starts where he went 6 IP and gave up 2 R in each, for an ERA of 3.00, But in the other two starts he had melt downs pitching a combined 3 IP and giving up 18 R. That would give him an ERA of 6.00 for the 10 GS. But would you consider him a true 6.00 ERA SP and send him down because of 2 bad starts out of 10? By my count the O's have 15 GS where the RD was -5 R or more for a total of -127. In their other 95 the RD was -4 R or less for a total of +73. I seems to me the people using the pythag are using the aggregate total to project the course of the next 52 games when it isn't an accurate reprentation of the teams play IMO, anymore than the 6.00 ERA accurately reflects the SP likely production going forward.

[Loophole]

Suppose you have a SP who over the course of 10 GS had 8 starts where he went 6 IP and gave up 2 R in each, for an ERA of 3.00, But in the other two starts he had melt downs pitching a combined 3 IP and giving up 18 R. That would give him an ERA of 6.00 for the 10 GS. But would you consider him a true 6. ERA SP and send him down because of 2 bad starts out of 10? By my count the O's have 15 GS where the RD was -5 R or more for a total of -127. In their other 95 the RD was 4 R or less for a total of +73. I seems to me the people using the pythag are using the aggregate total to project the course of the next 52 games when it isn't an accurate reprentation of the teams play IMO.

As it's been said to all the other let's-throw-the-stats-through-a-million-hoops-to-make-the-O's-look-better arguments, you can do this to every team and they'd all look a lot better.

[Can_of_corn]

As it's been said to all the other let's-throw-the-stats-through-a-million-hoops-to-make-the-O's-look-better arguments, you can do this to every team and they'd all look a lot better.

Cept the Astros, they suck.

[bluedog]

The smaller the number of games, the less statistically significant a deviation from the Pythag will be, I think. Any team can have a little streak of winning close games. Winning 22 of 28 one-run games is extraordinarily rare.

Is it historically rare? Does anyone know the best records in 1 run games in MLB history over a full season?

[Can_of_corn]

Is it historically rare? Does anyone know the best records in 1 run games in MLB history over a full season?

If they can continue the pace it will be a new record. The actual stats are floating around in the various RD/Pythag threads.

[GoldGlove21]

So I spent the afternoon looking at the Orioles negative run differential in hopes of trying to justify my opinion with ignorning the numbers. There are a few things that really jumped out to me and I wanted to touch on them.

1.) The Orioles are 33-18 in games decided by 2 or fewer runs.

2.) The Orioles are 39-26 in games decided by 3 or fewer runs.

3.) The Orioles are 15-26 in games where the run differential was 4 runs or greater.

4.) I took the Orioles 12 biggest blowout wins and compared them to the Orioles 12 biggest blowout losses. I found that the Orioles 12 worst losses totalled 136-28 or a run diff of -108. The Orioles 12 greatest wins totalled 102-31 or a run diff of +71. That is a run differential of -37 over the course of our 12 best and worst losses in terms of run diff. The teams current negative run differential is just -47 right now.

5.) The Angels and Rangers are 10-3 against us this season while outscoring us 91-38 to the tune of a -53 run differential which happens to be 6 more runs than our current -47 run differential.

These numbers really jumped out to me because it seems to me that a great portion of our negative run differential comes from a few very bad stretches of baseball against quality teams and our inability to blow teams out by a greater margin in order to pad the run differential.

There are numbers that do bother me, but they are not directly tied to run differential. Here are just a few examples.

1.) The starters ERA sits at 4.67 which is 9th in the AL.

2.) The starters are not good a Camden Yard and post a 4.37 ERA at home.

3.) Listed below is the breakdown of the starters ERA against hitters batting in each spot of the opponents lineup.

#1- 3.85

#2- 4.48

#3- 4.00

#4- 3.85

#5- 4.78

#6- 3.18

#7- 4.22

#8- 4.13

#9- 3.99

The numbers above show the Orioles to do a very good job with the #3 and #4 hitters in an opponents lineup and you can argue that better offensive clubs will put up quality numbers from the #3 and #4 spots moving forward.

4.) The Orioles defense is the worst in baseball in terms of errors. We have 87 errors thus far which is 37 more than the Yankees thus far.

5.) The Orioles .710 team OPS is 10th in the AL and is .19 points below last years .729 OPS.

But there are some really good things about this club.

1.) The is 32-25 away from Camden Yards where the starters have an ERA of 3.80 which is good for 3rd in the AL.

2.) The Orioles pen has been fantastic thus far as we all know. They are second in the AL at an ERA of 3.08 and they are behind only Oakland at 2.89.

3.) The team just seems to keep games close, battle back and win games late.

4.) The team ERA in July was 4.61, but the month of August has shown the pitching to stabilize a bit and they have pitched to a 2.95 ERA in the month of August (2nd in AL behind the Rays 1.37 mark).

5.) The longer the Orioles stay in contention the more like it is that we get Hammel back in time to further help the rotation. The return of Hammel could have the Orioles in a good spot moving through the month of September and possibly the playoffs!

6.) Manny Machado's call up should help the team defensively at third while providing a marginal or better offensive upgrade from our third baseman IMO.

7.) The Orioles are in a good position to make things interesting in the AL East if they can take 3/4 from the Royals. The Orioles will play the Yankees 7 more times prior to the end of the season and those games might end up being the type of baseball that we have all dreamed about for the last decade and a half or so.

So what is my point? My point is that run differential is just one data point used to analyze a club and that the Orioles are one of the few teams that buch a system that seems to have some validity. The Orioles seem to have more holes than than swiss cheese and yet here we are.

The baseball season is not a sprint, but we are getting to the point where it is getting to that point and we are at the blocks. I think that this team is special and might "Buck" the odds. We haven't seen the Orioles go on one of those rusn where they win 10 more than they lose over a 25 or 30 game period, but I really do think that we might be getting to that point.

I hope that you get something from the numbers I put together. I thought they painted more of a picture of what this team was all about. You can't throw out the Orioles close wins anymore than you can throw out the blowouts. If you want to say that the Orioles close game wins are luck than couldn't you also say that the Orioles blowouts (and lack of blowouts in the O's favor) could be bad luck? I would like to hear some opinions on some of these numbers.

[SteveA]

3.) Listed below is the breakdown of the starters ERA against hitters batting in each spot of the opponents lineup.

#1- 3.85

#2- 4.48

#3- 4.00

#4- 3.85

#5- 4.78

#6- 3.18

#7- 4.22

#8- 4.13

#9- 3.99

The numbers above show the Orioles to do a very good job with the #3 and #4 hitters in an opponents lineup and you can argue that better offensive clubs will put up quality numbers from the #3 and #4 spots moving forward.

Sorry to bump this thread, but I was out of town earlier in the week and am doing some catching up tonight.

Could you tell me what in the world it means to have an "ERA" against a spot in the batting order???? How in the world is that

computed? For example, how do you determine what a pitcher's ERA against #4 hitters is? Do you take every at bat by a #4 hitter and sequence them, reconstructing the games and stopping each inning after three outs? How do you know if a runner would have scored from second on a single if the single really occurred with no one on?

I'm jsut curious as to how such a bizarre stat such as "ERA against a spot in the batting order" could possibly be derived!

[Jonesy10]

On June 17 the O's were 39-27 with a +15 run differential.

On July 17, 46-44 with a -57 run differential, thanks to a 7-17 stretch in which the team had a -72 run differential.

Now, on August 16, the O's are 64-53, with a -41 run differential (18-9 with a +16 run differential since July 17)

Take out that horrid 1 month stretch of play, and the O's have played to a record of 57-36 with a +31 run differential.

[PapaRick]

I was at OPACY for two of those games during the 7-17 stretch. Josh Hamilton's 4 homer night, we lost 11-2 I believe and the night that Trout robbed Hardy of a first inning homer and we lost 13-1 I think. Those two games represent over half of the season's run deficit.

[Pickles]

That time frame also pretty much coincides w Markakis being out, and Arrieta and Matusz bottoming out. We're not that team anymore.

[howboutthoseos]

Really great data - thanks

[Pickles]

On June 17 the O's were 39-27 with a +15 run differential.

On July 17, 46-44 with a -57 run differential, thanks to a 7-17 stretch in which the team had a -72 run differential.

Now, on August 16, the O's are 64-53, with a -41 run differential (18-9 with a +16 run differential since July 17)

Take out that horrid 1 month stretch of play, and the O's have played to a record of 57-36 with a +31 run differential.

I think it needs pointing out, that even after removing that bad month, they're still wildly overperforming their pythag.

[Mondo Trasho]

I was at OPACY for two of those games during the 7-17 stretch. Josh Hamilton's 4 homer night, we lost 11-2 I believe and the night that Trout robbed Hardy of a first inning homer and we lost 13-1 I think. Those two games represent over half of the season's run deficit.

The game before Hamilton's 4 HR game we lost to them 14-3. Going into the 9th it was only 7-3 but with a taxed bullpen (39 innings against the Red Sox over the weekend) we put Jason Berken in to, as Palmer put it "take one for the team". And he gave up 7 runs before the inning was over. Without a taxed bullpen maybe we only lose 8-3.