Will you be disappointed if the 2013 roster is virtually the same as the 2012 roster?

[Trackmaster]

A lot of people seem to forget the pins and needles middle portion of the season where it looked like we could only get wins with Hammel and Chen on the mound. If we had Gonzo, Tillman, and Saunders in the rotation from day 1, we would have won 100 games, easy. That gives me hope that next year we could make some noise if we keep this line-up intact. Maybe Bundy is ready for a mid-season callup, and we solidify the rotation some more, and kickout the oddman out, or replace an injury.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

A lot of people seem to forget the pins and needles middle portion of the season where it looked like we could only get wins with Hammel and Chen on the mound. If we had Gonzo, Tillman, and Saunders in the rotation from day 1, we would have won 100 games, easy. That gives me hope that next year we could make some noise if we keep this line-up intact. Maybe Bundy is ready for a mid-season callup, and we solidify the rotation some more, and kickout the oddman out, or replace an injury.

Pretty bold statement. You might be right, but that also takes into account our insane 1 run and extra innings record. If you assume regression back to the mean for 2013 it's unlikely that 162 games with that rotation will equal 100 wins. Also, you can't take what Joe Saunders did for a little over a month and apply it over a full season. His long career suggest that isn't the pitcher you can expect for 162 games.

So, maybe improve the #5 pitcher (Saunders), improve that bat at either 2b of LF, and pray for good health, then maybe you can get a little closer to 100 wins than 90 wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

A lot of people seem to forget the pins and needles middle portion of the season where it looked like we could only get wins with Hammel and Chen on the mound. If we had Gonzo, Tillman, and Saunders in the rotation from day 1, we would have won 100 games, easy. That gives me hope that next year we could make some noise if we keep this line-up intact. Maybe Bundy is ready for a mid-season callup, and we solidify the rotation some more, and kickout the oddman out, or replace an injury.

I suppose that's possible. But then again, if Gonzo throws 150+ innings maybe he breaks down or loses effectiveness. Tillman never gets the chance to work with Peterson and fix what was wrong with him, and might still be in the Arrieta/Hunter/Matusz continuum. Who knows what Saunders would have done over a full season - in Arizona he was a 99 ERA+ guy, and only once has he ever pitched like he did for the O's over a full season.

You can't assume this team is going to get the same results in '13 that they did in '12. Too many unlikely events coming together in historically unique ways.

[Mondo Trasho]

About the 1-run record: good teams don't win close games, good teams don't play games.

Honestly, I wouldn't be too beat up about it if we stayed with more or less this roster for next season. Despite winning 93 games we really don't know what kind of team we have. Our "core" of Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Hardy and Machado are pretty good, but beyond that we don't know much. Was Chris Davis' season an outlier or what he really is? What about Mark Reynolds? Does Flaherty have any upside or is he just a fastball hitter who gets lucky every now and then? Is Jim Johnson a guy who can close for a few years, or is that sinker gonna stop sinking? Which Zach Britton was the real one? Is Gonzo gonna break down?

All of these questions and more can only be answered by playing another 162. Maybe this team is on the verge of something special, or maybe we should just tread water until Manny matures, and Bundy and Gausman come riding in. One things for sure, I trust Buck and DD to make the right call on this.

[gtown]

Two guys on the FA market might be good pickups on the cheap. Kelly Johnson is 30 and had an off year in Toronto, but even that off year is better than Andino/Flaherty. He could have a slight bounce back as well.

Scott Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery and the Twins are unlikely to pick up his option. He will be 30 next season and had some decent years in Minnesota.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I think this was an 82-85 win team based on talent that had some breaks fall it's way and they ended up with 93 wins.

I think there will be more regression then progression with this group going forward.

The team needs more talent to become perennial contenders.

What he said, although I don't think the regression will be too outrageous.

2012 was a major down year in the AL East and the Orioles cashed in on that. The Jays and Rays both under-performed and the Red Sox straight up imploded. The going will more than likely be much tougher in 2013.

[Ampontan]

Is Jim Johnson a guy who can close for a few years, or is that sinker gonna stop sinking?

If Jim Johnson's sinker was going to inexplicably stop sinking, it would have stopped already. His performance at the ML has depended on his health. I see no reason for either of those two to change in the foreseeable future.

[RHall31]

Assume DD isn't completely sitting on his laurels and does add some depth to the MiL with more Gonzo/McLouth types. Assume he locks up Peterson... But all he really does with the ML roster was bring back Reynolds, McLouth, and Saunders (the only 3 players of significance we stand to lose), would you be satisfied?

I'd be OK with just keeping Saunders. I think that pitching staff could be as successful or better than last year's staff.

I think DD would have to do more from a hitting perspective for the O's to approach the same kind of season.

Pitching-satisfied

Hitting- dissapointed

[primetime]

I suppose that's possible. But then again, if Gonzo throws 150+ innings maybe he breaks down or loses effectiveness. Tillman never gets the chance to work with Peterson and fix what was wrong with him, and might still be in the Arrieta/Hunter/Matusz continuum. Who knows what Saunders would have done over a full season - in Arizona he was a 99 ERA+ guy, and only once has he ever pitched like he did for the O's over a full season.

You can't assume this team is going to get the same results in '13 that they did in '12. Too many unlikely events coming together in historically unique ways.

The real and tough question for DD and Buck is this, what from 2012 is realistically sustainable going forward?

Of course we're not going to go 16-2 in extra inning games but on the flip side, we probably won't play that many extra inning games.

Also, with regard to the 1 run games, if the rotation and offense are a bit more consistent, there's a good chance we won't be in so many close games.

Don't get me wrong, I want to improve and bring in talent wherever we can but the problem is this mythical ace, #1 starter and this cleanup hitter with a low K rate, high BB rate and 40 HR power just aren't out there. So I think the best way for us to improve or at least sustain a 93 win, highly competitive team is to look for quality depth by bolstering the bench and continue to find guys to stash at Norfolk to help keep the ship afloat when injuries hit.

[Drifter]

For the most part, no.. however:

For pitching: I still can't get over how well the problems worked out from our starting pitchers (some of them becoming pretty good relievers). If we don't lose a lot to FA or other reasons.. I see plenty of flexibility in our pitching corps.

For position players: About 3/4 through the year, I started to believe the O's had a very good chance to either win the division, or make the playoff's. One of the things that had me shaking my head throughout the season was the amount of K's that we had with runners on. Way too many times the chances to move the runners up a base, or give themselves up to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd by hitting to the right side. Is it the difference between padding your stats, or being a team player? Maybe not (I do know Buck likes the HR). I know our BP was outstanding this year, but lightning in a bottle rarely strikes twice.. so lets pad our lead, and save BP as much as we can in 2013?

I did see a lot of bad swings throughout the year (esp with 2 strikes), and Reynolds 'seemed' to f(l)ail quite a bit in that situation (I couldn't find any stats on that). The following players had over 300 AB's and over 100 SO's:

------------K------AB-----OBP-----SLG

Davis------169----515----.326-----.501

Reynolds---159----457----.335-----.429

Jones------126----648----.334-----.505

Wieters----112----526----.329-----.435

Hardy------106----663----.282-----.389

Betemit----103----341----.322-----.422

Andino-----100----384----.283-----.305

I don't know about BR playing much anymore.. his health sure has become a major issue to say the least. I'm of the mindset to part ways with Andino, and give Flaherty 1st crack in the spring, with Quintanilla as b/u. The O's must have seen something Flaherty to keep him all year and not let him go after being a rule 5 pickup. I'm not sure who we have in the minors, but ...

Reynolds.. hmm, we have option year negotiations, but I doubt they would spend a ton of money on him (and they shouldn't). At the plate he had a 3 week stretch where he hit the ball with power and really looked great, but the rest of the year, was not good. In the field, he was terrific at 1st, which may be his redeeming factor for remaining on the team.

I like Betemit, but at what cost. His being a switch hitter is a plus, but the stats from each side should come into play.

Chris Davis had a pretty solid year throughout (discounting his swinging issues vs NY in ALDS).. he could play 1st should we not keep Reynolds.

I thought towards the end of the year, Hardy looked like he had a bad back.. running and swinging at times he looked like he was tweaking something. Maybe it's my eyes going, not sure.

Send AJ to a hypnotist... get rid of his desire to swing at a pitch he KNOWS is going to end up 2 feet off the plate.

I like Lew Ford and/or Steve Pearce as a RH pinch hitter, or replacement now and again in the field. Ford has some running skills, and a little pop.. but these will be bench guys and should know it coming in.

Chavez.. no need to hold onto him. We can keep Quintanilla and depending on whats up with Thome's health (or a FA), have them be our LH batter off the bench.

In a perfect world, Riemold will come back healthy and in great shape to be the player we all thought he could.. but keeping McClouth certainly wouldn't be a bad move. He has a very good glove, great speed, and good overall makeup. The's O's might have to spend a little bit of money on him, but that shouldn't be a problem.. right?

For me, bottom line: too many .200 area hitters ... need more contact with runners on.

[NickM21]

Unfortunetly I don't really see any guys out there in FA that would be a dramatic upgrade over what we have, except Josh Hamilton who I doubt is on our radar. I also don't think we have enough depth to do a whole lot in trades. We are probably going to see more or less the same roster next year.

[mdbdotcom]

It was a great season, with an amazing "feel good" quality to this team. That said, DD proved that improving the team is an on-going process. He didn't turn the team over to Buck at the end of spring training and say, "Here's your team, make the best of it." He kept making it better. I don't see why he would stop now. By the time spring training begins, I expect some guys who played important roles on this team will be gone, and that new players will be there to take their places. I expect there to be even more depth, and more competition for jobs. And, in spite of everything DD has been saying publicly, there might even be a high-priced free agent in the fold.

The memory of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles should not be tainted by expecting them to have another magical season. They were an amazing event in a very specific sllice of time. But baseball teams improve or they fall behind. I think DD will keep the O's moving forward, and I will be very surprised (and a little disappointed) if he doesn't.

[mcinww0]

I'd look for DD to add and subtract depth players but not much else. He hasn't traded a single legit prospect since he got here despite obvious pressures at the deadline and I think he realizes the farm is low on talent. We don't really have any gaping holes on the roster- he has faith in Flaharty going forward as a second baseman and we have a ton of potentially solid felt fielders even if nothing is certain in that department. Pitching we have depth and it sounds like he thinks we already have out next ace, so to speak.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I'd look for DD to add and subtract depth players but not much else. He hasn't traded a single legit prospect since he got here despite obvious pressures at the deadline and I think he realizes the farm is low on talent. We don't really have any gaping holes on the roster- he has faith in Flaharty going forward as a second baseman and we have a ton of potentially solid felt fielders even if nothing is certain in that department. Pitching we have depth and it sounds like he thinks we already have out next ace, so to speak.

It still befuddles me that Flaherty didn't get more starts. No reason he couldn't have got ~250 ABs

[El Gordo]

I'd look for DD to add and subtract depth players but not much else. He hasn't traded a single legit prospect since he got here despite obvious pressures at the deadline and I think he realizes the farm is low on talent. We don't really have any gaping holes on the roster- he has faith in Flaharty going forward as a second baseman and we have a ton of potentially solid felt fielders even if nothing is certain in that department. Pitching we have depth and it sounds like he thinks we already have out next ace, so to speak.

Yeah, it's looking more and more like they will try and sign McLouth, and Saunders. They will go with McLouth, Reimold, Davis and Hoes as LF options, Extend Reynolds, and maybe move Arrietta and Andino for prospects to bolster the MiL. Sign someone like Izturis to go with Flaherty and Roberts at 2B/UTIF. Stick with a rotation of Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Gonzo, and Saunders, while we wait to see how Bundy, Gausman, and Britton develop.