Orioles are one of the teams that the Twins have contacted in regards to Justin Morneau

[weams]

Somehow, I see this being spoken by HAL! Reply...Retweet...Favorite...BEEP...twitter is good...BEEP.

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I'm sorry Dave.

[luismatos4prez]

wOBA (adjusted for park/league effects) is the basis for the offensive component of WAR.

Exactly.

((wOBA - league wOBA) / wOBA scale) x PA

That's the hitting component of WAR. "The exact wOBA scale value varies on a year-to-year basis in order to set wOBA on the same scale as league-average OBP." Fangraphs.

[spneca]

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I'm sorry Dave.

Love the avatar today, Weams!

[TheBee]

What's the latest on Hosmer's shoulder tear?

[OrioleMagic79]

WAR makes park adjustments to compensate for Park Factors. You can certainly debate the effectivenss and accuracy of those adjustments.

That's what I have been doing...for this entire thread...you cannot put a number or a value on how much easier it is to hit a HR in Colorado than it is in Baltimore or Texas. That value depends on the ever changing physics of the environment that do not remain the same for even a split second. But you can look at the numbers and call it a hitter's park.

Can you imagine every time someone calls Camden Yards a hitter's park if the analysts broke down exactly how much of a hitter's park it was by comparing statistics and talking about physical environments and average weather forecasts? That's what trying to calculate ballparks means...

Maybe an average of 100 more HRs are hit at Coors field every single year...doesn't that also depend on which pitchers (home and away) pitch in that park in a given year? How about which hitters hit there?

Trying to claim that you can accurately calculate how a ballpark affects how a player will perform is like saying something like this:

If you took every team in a hitter's park in the league and forced them to trade stadiums for a season with all the teams in pitcher's parks, then all the teams moving to the hitter's parks would see an increase in their offensive production but a decrease in their pitching production with 100% certainty, and the opposite would happen for the teams going in the other direction...

That statement can simply not be said, there are too many factors to consider...therefore the ballpark comparisons cannot be quantified accurately. In my opinion it is ridiculous to think otherwise...

One of the points of statistics is that large enough samples compensate for "random" events.

How does this not apply to Batting Average and OBP? This statement is true for all statistics, that was my point. The way some people appear to value WAR would totally contradict this, and WAR itself as a stat and what it is intended to accomplish contradicts this...saying that other stats are too susceptible to randomness and outside factors to be valuable on their own...well if this basic principle is true, then all stats are useful in comparison to one another assuming they are assembled the same way for each player. The value of a stat when comparing players is a subjective thing, and research that compares one stat's value to another is also susceptible to the effects of circumstance. Maybe in 1996 using the batting average of every single free agent was a 100% accurate way to determine each player's value, but in 1997 it was an awful predictor...maybe in all of the 1980's it was accurate but all of the 1990's it was awful...which 10 years if correct?

The point is that statistics will always require human interpretation, because nothing outside of the laws of physics performs exactly the same way every single time. A player could be working really hard in the offseason and go from a career .198 hitter against lefties to a .390 hitter vs. lefties the next season and never look back...that is something that WAR cannot predict or account for...and the fact that WAR changes with every single at bat (like many other stats) is what makes trying to predict how many wins a player is worth above his replacement (who is an unnamed individual btw) a ridiculous goal...especially when "what it takes to win" changes every single day, even every single second...

Maybe so, but it's a far more accurate tool than your assumptions of value.

Is it? A trained professional cannot possible look at a bunch of statistics and put them all together to make logical and accurate conclusions but a statistic can? When stats are NEVER wrong in being accurate predictors of success, then you can make this statement. Until then, stats can be just as misleading as human analysis that is done by a trained professional.

Overhwelming research and analysis shows that BA is inferior to woba (weighted on base average) in judging offensive player performance. An opinion contrary to that point would considred asinine by any reputable analyst in the business.

Just to be clear my BA comment was not in support of BA at all, it was a point that I was trying to make as to how asinine it is to try and use one stat to compare players, no matter what the stat...

[DrungoHazewood]

That's what I have been doing...for this entire thread...you cannot put a number or a value on how much easier it is to hit a HR in Colorado than it is in Baltimore or Texas. That value depends on the ever changing physics of the environment that do not remain the same for even a split second. But you can look at the numbers and call it a hitter's park.

Can you imagine every time someone calls Camden Yards a hitter's park if the analysts broke down exactly how much of a hitter's park it was by comparing statistics and talking about physical environments and average weather forecasts? That's what trying to calculate ballparks means...

Maybe an average of 100 more HRs are hit at Coors field every single year...doesn't that also depend on which pitchers (home and away) pitch in that park in a given year? How about which hitters hit there?

Trying to claim that you can accurately calculate how a ballpark affects how a player will perform is like saying something like this:

If you took every team in a hitter's park in the league and forced them to trade stadiums for a season with all the teams in pitcher's parks, then all the teams moving to the hitter's parks would see an increase in their offensive production but a decrease in their pitching production with 100% certainty, and the opposite would happen for the teams going in the other direction...

That statement can simply not be said, there are too many factors to consider...therefore the ballpark comparisons cannot be quantified accurately. In my opinion it is ridiculous to think otherwise...

How does this not apply to Batting Average and OBP? This statement is true for all statistics, that was my point. The way some people appear to value WAR would totally contradict this, and WAR itself as a stat and what it is intended to accomplish contradicts this...saying that other stats are too susceptible to randomness and outside factors to be valuable on their own...well if this basic principle is true, then all stats are useful in comparison to one another assuming they are assembled the same way for each player. The value of a stat when comparing players is a subjective thing, and research that compares one stat's value to another is also susceptible to the effects of circumstance. Maybe in 1996 using the batting average of every single free agent was a 100% accurate way to determine each player's value, but in 1997 it was an awful predictor...maybe in all of the 1980's it was accurate but all of the 1990's it was awful...which 10 years if correct?

The point is that statistics will always require human interpretation, because nothing outside of the laws of physics performs exactly the same way every single time. A player could be working really hard in the offseason and go from a career .198 hitter against lefties to a .390 hitter vs. lefties the next season and never look back...that is something that WAR cannot predict or account for...and the fact that WAR changes with every single at bat (like many other stats) is what makes trying to predict how many wins a player is worth above his replacement (who is an unnamed individual btw) a ridiculous goal...especially when "what it takes to win" changes every single day, even every single second...

Is it? A trained professional cannot possible look at a bunch of statistics and put them all together to make logical and accurate conclusions but a statistic can? When stats are NEVER wrong in being accurate predictors of success, then you can make this statement. Until then, stats can be just as misleading as human analysis that is done by a trained professional.

Just to be clear my BA comment was not in support of BA at all, it was a point that I was trying to make as to how asinine it is to try and use one stat to compare players, no matter what the stat...

This has got to be one of the more bizarre and convoluted converstations in the history of the Hangout. It's like Old#5Fan has come back after attending a graduate-level class on fillibustering.

[OrioleMagic79]

wOBA (adjusted for park/league effects) is the basis for the offensive component of WAR.

and that is exactly what makes WAR not valuable in my point of view. you cannot place a numerical value on either ballpark effects or league effects...the best you can do with either is get an idea about which might have what effect...

Everyone for many years insists that the AL is better in almost all ways than the NL...but the NL has won quite a few WS titles and quite a few All-Star games for that to really be true...and there is no way to assign a numerical value to these kinds of things...they are mostly intangible...

anyway, like I said, we are close enough in our comments that I'm ready to call it a day and agree to disagree...there's no way you will convince me that WAR is a valuable stat, and it seems as though you aren't leaning toward accepting my views either...and that's OK.

But now that we have had this debate in a public forum like this, the next time someone says to me I don't want Morneau because he has a worse WAR than MR, I am going to just say "That means nothing to me, WAR is a ridiculous stat." Anyone that has a problem with that can just come back and read this thread to save the rest of us time...

[Dark Helmet]

Terry Ryan basically indicated that Morneau and Mauer aren't going anywhere, atleast this winner. Said they've traded away enough of their MLB guys, now it's time to add some pitching that can help them compete. Said "They got two former MVP's that don't want to talk future, they want to talk now". Looks like Willingham is staying too for the time being.

[OrioleMagic79]

This has got to be one of the more bizarre and convoluted converstations in the history of the Hangout. It's like Old#5Fan has come back after attending a graduate-level class on fillibustering.

Is that your way of insulting me or calling me an idiot? Yeah thanks, I got that. By the way, care to contribute to the debate, or are you going to allow CA-Oriole to do that and you can just comment on how my posts are bizarre and convoluted? Your input in this thread has less value than a WAR stat...

[OrioleMagic79]

Terry Ryan basically indicated that Morneau and Mauer aren't going anywhere, atleast this winner. Said they've traded away enough of their MLB guys, now it's time to add some pitching that can help them compete. Said "They got two former MVP's that don't want to talk future, they want to talk now". Looks like Willingham is staying too for the time being.

That's disappointing...but if I'm the Twins, it makes total sense.

[Babypowder]

and that is exactly what makes WAR not valuable in my point of view. you cannot place a numerical value on either ballpark effects or league effects...the best you can do with either is get an idea about which might have what effect...

Everyone for many years insists that the AL is better in almost all ways than the NL...but the NL has won quite a few WS titles and quite a few All-Star games for that to really be true...and there is no way to assign a numerical value to these kinds of things...they are mostly intangible...

anyway, like I said, we are close enough in our comments that I'm ready to call it a day and agree to disagree...there's no way you will convince me that WAR is a valuable stat, and it seems as though you aren't leaning toward accepting my views either...and that's OK.

But now that we have had this debate in a public forum like this, the next time someone says to me I don't want Morneau because he has a worse WAR than MR, I am going to just say "That means nothing to me, WAR is a ridiculous stat." Anyone that has a problem with that can just come back and read this thread to save the rest of us time...

The American League has beat the National League in interleague play every year since 2004. It's quite tangible.

[luismatos4prez]

and that is exactly what makes WAR not valuable in my point of view. you cannot place a numerical value on either ballpark effects or league effects...the best you can do with either is get an idea about which might have what effect...

Everyone for many years insists that the AL is better in almost all ways than the NL...but the NL has won quite a few WS titles and quite a few All-Star games for that to really be true...and there is no way to assign a numerical value to these kinds of things...they are mostly intangible...

anyway, like I said, we are close enough in our comments that I'm ready to call it a day and agree to disagree...there's no way you will convince me that WAR is a valuable stat, and it seems as though you aren't leaning toward accepting my views either...and that's OK.

But now that we have had this debate in a public forum like this, the next time someone says to me I don't want Morneau because he has a worse WAR than MR, I am going to just say "That means nothing to me, WAR is a ridiculous stat." Anyone that has a problem with that can just come back and read this thread to save the rest of us time...

Have you mathematically determined that these park adjustments are invalid, or are you just guessing because it sounds like a difficult task?

Your counterpoints aren't valid because you're just saying things that you think, but have no evidence to support. People have done tons of research on this subject, but you're apparently not willing to even read about what they've done. There is plenty of evidence that you can quantify those factors.

Read up on what you're arguing against. Your perspective will change.

[OrioleMagic79]

Have you mathematically determined that these park adjustments are invalid, or are you just guessing because it sounds like a difficult task?

Your counterpoints aren't valid because you're just saying things that you think, but have no evidence to support. People have done tons of research on this subject, but you're apparently not willing to even read about what they've done. There is plenty of evidence that you can quantify those factors.

Read up on what you're arguing against. Your perspective will change.

I'll let you continue to think this...it's not even worth it.

[Dark Helmet]

Have you mathematically determined that these park adjustments are invalid, or are you just guessing because it sounds like a difficult task?

Your counterpoints aren't valid because you're just saying things that you think, but have no evidence to support. People have done tons of research on this subject, but you're apparently not willing to even read about what they've done. There is plenty of evidence that you can quantify those factors.

Read up on what you're arguing against. Your perspective will change.

You accuse me of starting arguement's in thread's. Yet, I alway's see you talking down to other poster's that don't agree with you, and basically alway's trying to fuel the fires. Before you make suggestion's to other's about what they should do, maybe you should start taking some of your own advice.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Is this thread about Justin Morneau or is it an attempt by many to give OrioleMagic79 carpal tunnel?