Article that explains the off season (problems)

[El Gordo]

Me too. Or one that has Matusz in it. Or Britton.

It's quite possible one or both of Bundy and Gausman, plus progress from one of Arrieta, Matusz, or Britton, could make Tillman the future trade piece, assuming he continues to improve.

[Bradysburns]

Thanks for the reply. I will look for other simialr acounts from the area then. These are all the same address. I will have to look for your other ones.

Weams, I have mad respect for you dude. But the idea of publicly airing MSK's apparent aliases, or whatever, seems prurient and unnecessary. I have always appreciated the relative civility of the OH. I think such a public "domestic surveillance" report would be unnecessary. From where I stand, it would make sense to address any concerns on that front with MSK himself. Just my two cents. (Also, how bizarre to have 25 aliases? Like... huh?)

[Crazysilver03]

You'd have to double that or more for Stanton. Even Bundy and Schoop would get you hung up on real fast.

If Bundy busts on the scene next year as a stud, he will most likely have 3 years of cost control attached with him, while Stanton will be entering arbitration, or one year away, from getting at least a $7M payday his first time through. I figure he will cost at least $35m through his three years of arbitration.

[SrMeowMeow]

Or he's more expensive with less years under control.

Too many variables. But if Stanton puts up a year of 900 OPS and 40 homers, he won't go for even the #1 prospect in baseball and a top 100 guy. Even if he's making, what, like 4M?

[SrMeowMeow]

If Bundy busts on the scene next year as a stud, he will most likely have 3 years of cost control attached with him, while Stanton will be entering arbitration, or one year away, from getting at least a $7M payday his first time through. I figure he will cost at least $35m through his three years of arbitration.

This is what I mean, way too many variables to guess if Stanton in 1.5 year will be worth Bundy and Schoop in 1.5 years. I guess it's possible, but I can't see it happening. Even if Bundy breaks out. I think both players would fall into the "too valuable to ever actually get traded" group.

[Stotle]

If Stotle's assesment of Bundy and Gausman are on, I would rather deal Tillman. Hopefully Tillman carries over 2012 into 2013. I like Tillman a lot, but i'd be hesitant to trade Bundy or Gausman. However, if Tillman is succesful in the majors, i'd be hesitant to trade a proven guy over a prospect. Can we have our cake and eat it too?

Optimal outcome is probably Tampa's w/Garza and now Shields. Keep the pipeline of mid-rotation or better arms coming and pick one as your staple. Baltimore needs Tillman/Britton/Arrieta/Matusz to click. Chen/Gonzalez/Hammel are good gets, have value, but aren't going to land you significant trade packages in the future. Draft aggressively, sign internationally aggressively (and young!) and stop committing significant draft investments to reliever or workhorse/back-end profiles with #3 absolute ceilings. Twins tried this and found it doesn't work.

[Bradysburns]

Except 54 games isn't really a SSS.

I dunno, Silver. I mean... if 54 games were solidly indicative of future performance, I shudder to think of the people who would have received big contracts. Ryan Kohlmeier comes to mind. Bergeson, too. Jerry Hairston. Et al.

I do put stock in the strong second half performances of Gonzo, Saunders, etc. But I do consider 54 games a SSS - not insignificant. But statistically speaking (not that I am a statistician) I would have roughly a 50% confidence level that they could sustain that performance over a full season and beyond.

[Stotle]

This is what I mean, way too many variables to guess if Stanton in 1.5 year will be worth Bundy and Schoop in 1.5 years. I guess it's possible, but I can't see it happening. Even if Bundy breaks out. I think both players would fall into the "too valuable to ever actually get traded" group.

Maybe. In any event, Miami doesn't have a track record that would indicate they'd accept below-market value for stars...

[Dark Helmet]

Yeah, I don't see the anology. The Reynolds thing has been debated over and over. We've looked at all aspects: money/budget restrictions, platooning, Cost/value, defense, replacements (Davis at 1b), future trade possibilites etc. etc. If the choice was having Reynolds over a Betemit/RHP platoon, I'd probably prefer Reynolds as well. The scope of the argument was well beyond that and certainly beyond the "if you don't agree with me about spending more money then you're a PA apolgist" angle that MSK plays so well.

I brought up Reynold's to try and get off the MSK discussion. I was giving my opinion on the one move DD has made this offseason, that I wish he hadn't. Wasn't meant as an anology in regards to MSK. I was just trying to get back on topic.

[tilgaham]

If Stotle's assesment of Bundy and Gausman are on, I would rather deal Tillman. Hopefully Tillman carries over 2012 into 2013. I like Tillman a lot, but i'd be hesitant to trade Bundy or Gausman. However, if Tillman is succesful in the majors, i'd be hesitant to trade a proven guy over a prospect. Can we have our cake and eat it too?

Not necessarily 1 to 1.5 years from now.

That was my thought process. No way Miami extends the guy, and if they can get him for a fringe #1 (going with your best case) in Gausman, as well as a fringe AS/solid regular in Schoop (fingers crossed on his AAA performance), then I bet they'd seriously consider it.

Edit: I shudder to think what a contract extension for Giancarlo Stanton would even start with. To buy out 2.5-3 years of arbitration and a potential age 27 free agency, methinks you'd have to make your starting offer something like 7/135. Market would likely give something like 7/175 if not higher, assuming his performance holds up through arb.

[SrMeowMeow]

That was my thought process. No way Miami extends the guy, and if they can get him for a fringe #1 (going with your best case) in Gausman, as well as a fringe AS/solid regular in Schoop (fingers crossed on his AAA performance), then I bet they'd seriously consider it.

It's not unreasonable. But then you have to wonder, if Gausman is looking like a MLB-ready fringe #1 and Schoop a MLB-ready fringe All-Star in a year and a half, do we really trade like twelve years of that for three of Stanton?

[Stotle]

That was my thought process. No way Miami extends the guy, and if they can get him for a fringe #1 (going with your best case) in Gausman, as well as a fringe AS/solid regular in Schoop (fingers crossed on his AAA performance), then I bet they'd seriously consider it.

Of course they would. It's a fool's errand to try and guess with certainty, but that's the "type" of move Baltimore should be looking to make down the line. Not enough bullets in the trade warchest right now (which is disappointing), but it needs to be a targeted focus moving forward, I'd think, if you want to stick w/the rest of the division.

[Crazysilver03]

I dunno, Silver. I mean... if 54 games were solidly indicative of future performance, I shudder to think of the people who would have received big contracts. Ryan Kohlmeier comes to mind. Bergeson, too. Jerry Hairston. Et al.

I do put stock in the strong second half performances of Gonzo, Saunders, etc. But I do consider 54 games a SSS - not insignificant. But statistically speaking (not that I am a statistician) I would have roughly a 50% confidence level that they could sustain that performance over a full season and beyond.

Great points.

With the 54 games though, I wasn't necessarily singling out any one player but talking about the team in general. The Orioles were a good team. There wasn't luck involved like in the first 54 games.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I brought up Reynold's to try and get off the MSK discussion. I was giving my opinion on the one move DD has made this offseason, that I wish he hadn't. Wasn't meant as an anology in regards to MSK. I was just trying to get back on topic.

Ok, I took it as an analogy/rationalization. My apologies.

[Crazysilver03]

Of course they would. It's a fool's errand to try and guess with certainty, but that's the "type" of move Baltimore should be looking to make down the line. Not enough bullets in the trade warchest right now (which is disappointing), but it needs to be a targeted focus moving forward, I'd think, if you want to stick w/the rest of the division.

You are articulating this argument much better than I could. The people that are claiming we are okay with standing pat are missing the forest thru the trees. This team is not a contender unless Matusz/Britton/Tillman/Arrieta straighten out and gain value. 2013-2014 has been the targeted time for sustained contention because of the value players would/should have.