Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[webbrick2010]

I don't think Johnson alone gets you Porcello. It certainly doesn't get you anywhere near Castellanos, let alone Castellanos plus some more.

Totally agree... and that's what makes this thread so funny. People vehemently arguing that Porcello is not good enough for Johnson, when I suspect the Tigers and 90% of baseball GM's would think the reverse. Johnson and ?? for Porcello.

[Number5]

Totally agree... and that's what makes this thread so funny. People vehemently arguing that Porcello is not good enough for Johnson, when I suspect the Tigers and 90% of baseball GM's would think the reverse. Johnson and ?? for Porcello.

Fortunately, DD is in the top 10%.

[wildbillhiccup]

Totally agree... and that's what makes this thread so funny. People vehemently arguing that Porcello is not good enough for Johnson, when I suspect the Tigers and 90% of baseball GM's would think the reverse. Johnson and ?? for Porcello.

Nope. Pretty sure you're both the ones who are in the minority. It's easy to toss out a ridiculous statement like the above, but it's hard to argue with the cold hard facts. Porcello's numbers aren't that good and his lack of strikeouts, for such a yong pitcher is alarming. Any pitcher that gets hit that often is eventually going to get hit hard. The ONLY thing he has going for him is his age. But why should believe he's going to improve at the major league level, when he really hasn't over the last few years? You can go on and on about the poor defense behind him (which I would argue would be offset by the fact that Camden Yards is more of a hitter's park), but the reality is he doesn't miss bats. It's much easier for a reliever to get away with that approach for 1 or 2 innings per game than it is for a starter to get away with it for 6+ innings.

And if I see one more thread on Rick Porcello, I'm going to have "Say No to Porcello" t-shirts printed.

[mcgraw238]

I don't think Johnson alone gets you Porcello. It certainly doesn't get you anywhere near Castellanos, let alone Castellanos plus some more.

That probably comes as a reality check for some. Or, perhaps, they comfort themselves by saying you don't know what your talking about...which is an even crazier angle.

[Stotle]

JJ may not get you Porcello if you're the Tigers. But if you're the Orioles, Porcello's not nearly enough for JJ.

Hence, this deal will never happen.

I think if you are an independent third party, Porcello > JJ.

[brianod]

I really get tired of people constantly quoting advanced metrics and refusing to use their eyes and brains sometimes.

Pretty much every metric there is would have said our season was absolutely impossible last year, but there we were, playing the Yankees in the ALDS, a few bad breaks away from the ALCS.

Johnson was a huge part of us making it that far and guys want to ship him off in his prime for a younger, mediocre starting pitcher because some metric says that he might do a little better in Camden yards than comerica (which I don't believe for a second, but hey).

Closers with a short memory and solid long term track record are not as easy to find as some of you act like they are. Kevin Gregg should be setting off alarm bells in this discussion. He was a solid pitcher in Toronto who fell completely apart in Camden yards every time the pressure was on the line.

Jim Johnson was the polar opposite of that last year and played a huge role in us making the playoffs for the first time in over a decade and a half. And some of you want to ship him off in his prime for an unproven, questionable starting pitcher because some hypothetical metric says he might get marginally better in Baltimore.

Thank god some of you aren't running this team.

Advanced metrics are a nice aid but far from a end all and be all. You can't measure everything in baseball and those that play and coach the game aren't widgets that react predictably in every situation.

[brianod]

I think if you are an independent third party, Porcello > JJ.

Ya, what we need is another young pitcher who shows some promise but hasn't put it all together yet. Great idea to trade our lights out closer for something we already have an excess of.

[Number5]

That probably comes as a reality check for some. Or, perhaps, they comfort themselves by saying you don't know what your talking about...which is an even crazier angle.

I happen to think it is possible to disagree with someone's opinion on on particular issue and not have the opinion that that person doesn't know what he is talking about.

I gave the highest regard for Stotle's knowledge. I simply disagree with him as to Porcello/Johnson. I see what Soriano just signed for and that gives me a bit of a handle on the value of back-end RPs in MLB. I see Porcello's numbers. I see that Porcello is, at best #5 in Detroit right now, and they are looking for a closer. I actually believe that Porcello is #6, behind Smyly, since Smyly is their only LHSP, but I realize that not everyone will share that view. The fact that they do appear to be shopping Porcello does tend to support my view on that, though.

[Can_of_corn]

I think if you are an independent third party, Porcello > JJ.

I certainly agree with that assessment, it is why I would make the trade. However since Detroit is in a heightened win-now mode I could see them trading someone who essentially depth for a piece where their team has an acknowledged weakness.

[Os84]

I happen to think it is possible to disagree with someone's opinion on on particular issue and not have the opinion that that person doesn't know what he is talking about.

I gave the highest regard for Stotle's knowledge. I simply disagree with him as to Porcello/Johnson. I see what Soriano just signed for and that gives me a bit of a handle on the value of back-end RPs in MLB. I see Porcello's numbers. I see that Porcello is, at best #5 in Detroit right now, and they are looking for a closer. I actually believe that Porcello is #6, behind Smyly, since Smyly is their only LHSP, but I realize that not everyone will share that view. The fact that they do appear to be shopping Porcello does tend to support my view on that, though.

Agreed.

[Stotle]

I certainly agree with that assessment, it is why I would make the trade. However since Detroit is in a heightened win-now mode I could see them trading someone who essentially depth for a piece where their team has an acknowledged weakness.

Sure. Teams trade "value" for need all the time -- especially playoff teams.

[Stotle]

Ya, what we need is another young pitcher who shows some promise but hasn't put it all together yet. Great idea to trade our lights out closer for something we already have an excess of.

Can you link my post where I said this is a trade that should be made? I can't seem to find it.

[brianod]

I happen to think it is possible to disagree with someone's opinion on on particular issue and not have the opinion that that person doesn't know what he is talking about.

I gave the highest regard for Stotle's knowledge. I simply disagree with him as to Porcello/Johnson. I see what Soriano just signed for and that gives me a bit of a handle on the value of back-end RPs in MLB. I see Porcello's numbers. I see that Porcello is, at best #5 in Detroit right now, and they are looking for a closer. I actually believe that Porcello is #6, behind Smyly, since Smyly is their only LHSP, but I realize that not everyone will share that view. The fact that they do appear to be shopping Porcello does tend to support my view on that, though.

Well said. Daniel Cabrera was young with a lot of promise once too. So was Sydney Ponson. We have our own projects, we don't need to take on someone elses.

[Stotle]

Something to consider: Everyone talks about how great Porcello would be with the Orioles infield defense, but how would JJ's sinker play in Detroit? I assume just about as poorly as Porcello's.

I don't disagree with that. Plus, Leyland likes strikeouts and track record with his closers, right?

[Stotle]

Well said. Daniel Cabrera was young with a lot of promise once too. So was Sydney Ponson. We have our own projects, we don't need to take on someone elses.

Just to clarify, you are comping Cabrera and Ponson to Porcello, right?