Jump to content

PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 115
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
I think talent wise, this team wins 86-90 games. Add in the intangibles and this team does better. I'm predicting 97 but would settle for 93

I think the improvements made by Toronto and Boston make this a tall order. The O's went 24-12 against those two teams last year and I think that will be very hard to duplicate. My guess is that it will be hard for any AL East team to win significantly more than 90 games this year. I think 91-92 will win the division this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
I think the improvements made by Toronto and Boston make this a tall order. The O's went 24-12 against those two teams last year and I think that will be very hard to duplicate. My guess is that it will be hard for any AL East team to win significantly more than 90 games this year. I think 91-92 will win the division this year.

I think Boston is actually worse on paper. I can see the Bronx being a Zoo. Toronto certainly spent money like the Marlins did last year. I do think the Rays will be batter, even without Shields.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
I think Boston is actually worse on paper. I can see the Bronx being a Zoo. Toronto certainly spent money like the Marlins did last year. I do think the Rays will be batter, even without Shields.

The Rays traded Shields and a depth guy. If this is the year a couple of their starters miss significant time they are in trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NCRaven Hangout Grand Counsel

NCRaven

Posted
Posted
I think Boston is actually worse on paper. I can see the Bronx being a Zoo. Toronto certainly spent money like the Marlins did last year. I do think the Rays will be batter, even without Shields.

I think many of the moves by both Boston and Toronto resulted in overpayments in both prospects (Toronto) and dollars (Boston) when compared to the final results. Granted we won't know those results until after the season, but I have questions about many of those players and doubt that they meet up to their teams' expectations. Like Weams, I think the Yankees could (again, "could") be a real disaster. And, Tampa will continue to have excellent pitching and an empty lineup aside from Longoria. The Orioles have as much potential for a division title as any of these other teams. Now, will it take 90 or 95 wins to get there? I like our chances a lot more if that magic number is 90, of course. But, I think we have a better chance of 89 wins (81+9) than we do 74 (81-9), as PECOTA predicts and I'd be very surprised if we end up with a losing record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
slakattack Hangout Veteran Council

slakattack

Posted
Posted
Luck is a hard word for me to accept. I think the "luck" you refer to favors hard work and determination. Its not like the O's rolled a pair of die to win those close ball-games. They had the intestinal fortitude and where-with-all to get it done when it counted most.

A lot of the saber guys on here look at baseball as more of a (somewhat random) dispersion of statistics. I've noticed that its hard for many to see that things like these are less about luck, and more about determination and will to win. Look at the Ravens... sure they had some things go their way (every champion does). But what really brought them through all those tough situations (4th quarter in Denver, the goal-line stand in the SB) was the sheer will to win. They wanted it more, just like this Orioles team did last season.

I don't think you see hard-core "reversions to the mean" because this team isn't to be measured against the statistical "norm." They are by-far no normal team. They have a synergy that Buck has helped create and hone.

That's how I see it anyhow.

Blashemy!! Thou shall not acknowledge any human emotion in baseball that cannot be reduced to a numeric ratio with a childish acronym. ....amen brother, the gamers gonna game again

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
I think many of the moves by both Boston and Toronto resulted in overpayments in both prospects (Toronto) and dollars (Boston) when compared to the final results. Granted we won't know those results until after the season, but I have questions about many of those players and doubt that they meet up to their teams' expectations. Like Weams, I think the Yankees could (again, "could") be a real disaster. And, Tampa will continue to have excellent pitching and an empty lineup aside from Longoria. The Orioles have as much potential for a division title as any of these other teams. Now, will it take 90 or 95 wins to get there? I like our chances a lot more if that magic number is 90, of course. But, I think we have a better chance of 89 wins (81+9) than we do 74 (81-9), as PECOTA predicts and I'd be very surprised if we end up with a losing record.

Whether or not Boston and Toronto overpaid for the players they acquired, they should be improved on the field for 2013, not just because of who they acquired, but because they figure to be healthier. I do expect the Yankees to be down from 2012, and personally, I think Tampa will be down, too. Everyone talks about Shields, but losing Upton and Keppinger also hurts.

I think it all adds up to a delicious dogfight in 2013, with all five teams possibly in the 80-92 win range. I still think Boston is the worst team in the division, but a .500ish record from them wouldn't surprise me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
Whether or not Boston and Toronto overpaid for the players they acquired, they should be improved on the field for 2013, not just because of who they acquired, but because they figure to be healthier.

Yes, there's a big difference between "they overpaid by $10M for Mike Napoli" or whatever, and saying that they're going to not be any better than their crater of a season last year. Even if they'd not done anything you could expect bouncebacks from Ellsbury, Lester, Bard, full seasons out of Middlebrooks, Tazawa, etc. I'd think they were close to .500 before doing anything. Heck, the way folks talked about Valentine last year you'd expect them to get 10 wins just from firing him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking anywhere from 78-84 wins. This division is too good with the Blue Jays essentially becoming the Toronto Blue Marlin Jays. I think the Yankees offense takes a step back due to losing Swisher, Ibanez, ARod, and Chavez. But their pitching is still very good. Boston will improve over last year now that they're healthy again and they just dumped a lot of cash. Tampa is a wild card. They lost Shields and Upton, but they have a ton of pitching talent.

I can see the following happening:

New York

Blue Jays

Orioles

Rays

Red Sox

....with the Orioles, Rays, and Red Sox all within a few games of one another.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...