As JJ Hardy Struggles at ST Will Orioles Reconsider A Trade?

[Il BuonO]

Oh Please, I am sending all my negative mojo toward Roberts, Flaherty and Steve Johnson. I don't have enough hate left for Hardy till one of those guys is off the 25 man.

Lol....must spread rep

[markakis8]

What does that have to do with anything? He still had an OPS+ of 75. Did we set a minimum at bat requirement earlier in the discussion that I was unaware of?

No but it doesn't take a genius to realize that playing less than 1/4 of the season really isn't a way to gauge an offensive performance, especially when it's not on par with their normal full-season performance. No one would be using 2006 FOR their argument if he hit .375 with 10 HR in those 35 games. Just like the smart ones that didn't pencil in Kevin Maas, Shane Spencer, and Brett Lawrie as future perennial All-Stars based off their performances in 1/4 of the year.

Anyway, Hardy will not be traded. You don't trade a GG SS that will hit 20-30 HR for you. You put him down in the bottom of the order (a luxury we couldn't afford last year) and let him do his thing while he continues to save runs for you defensively. He will be an Oriole for the next 2 years I guarantee it. And, I'd be willing to bet that Manny Machado never plays a full season at SS, even after Hardy is gone.

[markakis8]

So you want to take Hardy's second best season, which isn't even his most recent season, and extrapolate off of that?

It's no different than you extrapolating off of his 2006 season where he played 35 games to make a case for your argument.

[Can_of_corn]

No but it doesn't take a genius to realize that playing less than 1/4 of the season really isn't a way to gauge an offensive performance, especially when it's not on par with their normal full-season performance. No one would be using 2006 FOR their argument if he hit .375 with 10 HR in those 35 games. Just like the smart ones that didn't pencil in Kevin Maas, Shane Spencer, and Brett Lawrie as future perennial All-Stars based off their performances in 1/4 of the year.

And if the numbers he accrued that year were out of line with his historic numbers I would discount them. However the numbers are not out of line with some of his other down years.

[Can_of_corn]

It's no different than you extrapolating off of his 2006 season where he played 35 games to make a case for your argument.

Yes it is, I used the 2006 season in conjunction with other seasons, and have been consistently citing career stats. He cherry picked the 2011 season then compared that number to the production of third basemen in 2012.

[OFFNY]

No but it doesn't take a genius to realize that playing less than 1/4 of the season really isn't a way to gauge an offensive performance, especially when it's not on par with their normal full-season performance. No one would be using 2006 FOR their argument if he hit .375 with 10 HR in those 35 games. Just like the smart ones that didn't pencil in Kevin Maas, Shane Spencer, and Brett Lawrie as future perennial All-Stars based off their performances in 1/4 of the year.

Anyway, Hardy will not be traded. You don't trade a GG SS that will hit 20-30 HR for you. You put him down in the bottom of the order (a luxury we couldn't afford last year) and let him do his thing while he continues to save runs for you defensively. He will be an Oriole for the next 2 years I guarantee it. And, I'd be willing to bet that Manny Machado never plays a full season at SS, even after Hardy is gone.

That's correct ...... for me it is, anyway.

If I were citing Hardy's best offensive seasons, and he had batted .375 in 35 games one year, I wouldn't use it, for the same reason that I didn't use it when I cited Hardy's worst offensive seasons, which were 2012 and 2009.

[Mayor McCheese]

I was nice to see Hardy really get the bat out in front and make solid contact... I was just reading a few quotes from this article and found it a little interesting that it almost seems that he is not at all confident/comfortable with his swing... he says hes not panicing yet because the season is still a few weeks away....but still Hardy... get yo s*** together man the season will be here before you know it!

“It was definitely nice to put a barrel to a ball. I wasn’t really worried. We still have a few weeks left; I’ll get a few more at-bats,” Hardy said. “I wasn’t too worried about the first 25 [at-bats] or so, but that definitely felt good.”

“As long as I feel comfortable in the last week before the season starts, I’ll be fine. And the season’s not starting right now,” Hardy said. “In years past, I might have been pressing, but this year I realize the season starts April 2. I’ll be ready by then and anything before then is just working up to it.”

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-baltimore-orioles-jj-hardy-on-homering-for-second-spring-hit-20130317,0,1871325.story

[Frobby]

Here are some OPS projections for Hardy:

Bill James .728

CAIRO .715

Rotochamp .745

Steamer .721

Oliver .702

ZiPS .727

PECOTA .725

I'd say if Hardy falls anywhere in that range, I'll probably be very satisfied and he'll be a 3+ win shortstop overall. Even at last year's numbers, he was worth 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 rWAR, so while I'd be mildly disappointed if he replicated last year's offensive numbers, he'd still be well above average. If Hardy fell to a .210 BA as in Can of Corn's hypothetical, I'd be very disappointed, but he still might be around a 2-win player even if he did that. I'm really not expecting his BA to go that low, and neither are any of the above projection sources, though obviously, they aren't always right. PECOTA thinks Hardy has a 64% chance of improving from 2012, and only a 1% chance of a collapse (Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a position player's true runs produced per PA will decline by at least 25 percent relative to his baseline performance over his past three seasons).

[Can_of_corn]

Here are some OPS projections for Hardy:

I'd say if Hardy falls anywhere in that range, I'll probably be very satisfied and he'll be a 3+ win shortstop overall. Even at last year's numbers, he was worth 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 rWAR, so while I'd be mildly disappointed if he replicated last year's offensive numbers, he'd still be well above average. If Hardy fell to a .210 BA as in Can of Corn's hypothetical, I'd be very disappointed, but he still might be around a 2-win player even if he did that. I'm really not expecting his BA to go that low, and neither are any of the above projection sources, though obviously, they aren't always right. PECOTA thinks Hardy has a 64% chance of improving from 2012, and only a 1% chance of a collapse (Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a position player's true runs produced per PA will decline by at least 25 percent relative to his baseline performance over his past three seasons).

Hardy brings a lot to the team defensively. He could be hitting .210 in June and that will not be a problem if the team is winning.

For the record WC is the one that tossed out a 210 BA. I stated that I think he will rebound slightly from his 2012 season.

[Frobby]

For the record WC is the one that tossed out a 210 BA. I stated that I think he will rebound slightly from his 2012 season.

Oops, sorry about that. I agree I expect a slight rebounnd, as do the various projection systems. And wildcard clearly was not saying he expected .210 from Hardy, he was merely saying that if Hardy was hitting .210 and the Orioles were winning, he'd be happy with that. I guess I'd say I'd be unhappy because it would hurt Hardy's trade value a lot. as I've said, I'm in no hurry to trade Hardy, though.

[hoosiers]

Here are some OPS projections for Hardy:

Bill James .728

CAIRO .715

Rotochamp .745

Steamer .721

Oliver .702

ZiPS .727

PECOTA .725

I'd say if Hardy falls anywhere in that range, I'll probably be very satisfied and he'll be a 3+ win shortstop overall. Even at last year's numbers, he was worth 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 rWAR, so while I'd be mildly disappointed if he replicated last year's offensive numbers, he'd still be well above average. If Hardy fell to a .210 BA as in Can of Corn's hypothetical, I'd be very disappointed, but he still might be around a 2-win player even if he did that. I'm really not expecting his BA to go that low, and neither are any of the above projection sources, though obviously, they aren't always right. PECOTA thinks Hardy has a 64% chance of improving from 2012, and only a 1% chance of a collapse (Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a position player's true runs produced per PA will decline by at least 25 percent relative to his baseline performance over his past three seasons).

Those look like decent numbers to me. JJ has real value as a player and there is value in his contract.

I've just advocated this offseason moving JJ because we have Manny and also because I'd rather move JJ too soon than too late - especially while there is interest from other teams - particularly one that has overpaid in the past like Detroit - and especially while JJ provides substantive value. IMO, folks focus too much on JJ's value and seem to forget that we should get equal or better value in a trade.

[isestrex]

Here are some OPS projections for Hardy:

Bill James .728

CAIRO .715

Rotochamp .745

Steamer .721

Oliver .702

ZiPS .727

PECOTA .725

I'd say if Hardy falls anywhere in that range, I'll probably be very satisfied and he'll be a 3+ win shortstop overall. Even at last year's numbers, he was worth 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 rWAR, so while I'd be mildly disappointed if he replicated last year's offensive numbers, he'd still be well above average. If Hardy fell to a .210 BA as in Can of Corn's hypothetical, I'd be very disappointed, but he still might be around a 2-win player even if he did that. I'm really not expecting his BA to go that low, and neither are any of the above projection sources, though obviously, they aren't always right. PECOTA thinks Hardy has a 64% chance of improving from 2012, and only a 1% chance of a collapse (Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a position player's true runs produced per PA will decline by at least 25 percent relative to his baseline performance over his past three seasons).

Would you be satisfied if he falls in that range if he were a 3B? In other words, would "his bat play at 3B"?

[BobDylanBundy]

Would you be satisfied if he falls in that range if he were a 3B? In other words, would "his bat play at 3B"?

IMO, it doesn't matter if his bat will play at 3B. I think we're likely to see significant decline in Hardy's bat fairly soon, but I'd actually expect him to be able to play quality defense at SS for several more seasons. He's had mediocre range during his time with the Orioles and his arm is probably slightly below average for a SS; his elite fielding game is almost entirely skill-based with very little reliance on tools. Would expect a player with this prototype would age much better (at least defensively) than the toolsy players who have a lot of value based on making exceptional plays. Cal Ripken, for example, managed to sustain well above average SS defense all the way through his age 34 season - for Hardy, that'd be 2017.

[El Gordo]

IMO, it doesn't matter if his bat will play at 3B. I think we're likely to see significant decline in Hardy's bat fairly soon, but I'd actually expect him to be able to play quality defense at SS for several more seasons. He's had mediocre range during his time with the Orioles and his arm is probably slightly below average for a SS; his elite fielding game is almost entirely skill-based with very little reliance on tools. Would expect a player with this prototype would age much better (at least defensively) than the toolsy players who have a lot of value based on making exceptional plays. Cal Ripken, for example, managed to sustain well above average SS defense all the way through his age 34 season - for Hardy, that'd be 2017.

Not sure what you mean by range. If it was mediocre, the 19 plays above average he made last season would have been all straight on and he would have been 0 to his right and 0 to his left. In fact he was +7 left +7 right and +3 straight on. Also I wouldn't describe his arm as below average for a SS. It's not Tejada's but it's a lot stronger than Flaherty's or Casilla's and I'd say stronger than average.

[BobDylanBundy]

Not sure what you mean by range. If it was mediocre, the 19 plays above average he made last season would have been all straight on and he would have been 0 to his right and 0 to his left. In fact he was +7 left +7 right and +3 straight on. Also I wouldn't describe his arm as below average for a SS. It's not Tejada's but it's a lot stronger than Flaherty's or Casilla's and I'd say stronger than average.

I guess I meant below average arm for a starting SS. There are indeed a ton of Casilla types with weak arms who will see scattered innings at SS.

Regarding his range, total plays isn't really indicative of range. Total plays will be heavily influenced by context, might even say that's more representative of context than the actual player's performance. WAR is the primary stat used to show Hardy's defense makes him valuable despite his offense, and the principal range-related feeder of WAR is Range Runs. Despite leading all MLB SS's in innings last season, Hardy only ranked 14th in range runs. In 2011, he was 15th in innings and 22nd in range runs.

With that said, despite the arm/range he's still an elite defensive SS mainly due to his ability to complete large quantities of plays with an extremely minimal number of errors. My point is that this strength is largely skill-based and less dependent on tools than arm/range. I haven't done any kind of analysis, but it stands to reason that a player with this balance of strengths/weaknesses is significantly less likely to be influenced (defensively) by physical decline than a player with an opposite balance.