Chris Tillman - O's Ace

[Frobby]

Here is Chris Tillman vs Top 10 in pitching WAR. Tillman is #88, Hammel is best on the O's this year at #87 (Gonz and Wei-Yin are hurt by injuries). Include 2012 and Chen is our best in WAR. Best pitcher on our staff right now? I can buy that. But it is by a matter of degrees, not tiers, and the MLB Top 10 blow him away.

W/L K/9 K/BB ERA WAR

1 Adam WainwrighCardinals

10-3 8.48 0.79 2.18 4.0

2 Matt Harvey Mets

5-1 9.46 1.86 2.04 3.3

3 Felix Hernandez Mariners

8-4 9.46 1.72 2.32 3.2

4 Anibal Sanchez Tigers

6-5 11.13 2.53 2.76 3.1

5 Cliff Lee Phillies

8-2 7.83 1.50 2.55 3.0

6 Justin Verlander Tigers

8-4 10.45 2.90 3.41 3.0

7 Yu Darvish Rangers

7-2 11.99 2.74 2.64 2.9

8 Max Scherzer Tigers

9-0 10.56 2.19 3.19 2.9

9 Clay Buchholz Red Sox

9-0 8.64 3.09 1.71 2.9

10 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers

5-4 8.72 2.60 1.84 2.8

88 Chris Tillman Orioles

7-2 7.43 3.17 3.61 0.3

I'm not that big a fan of WAR and other theoretical stats when it comes to pitchers. Too much hinges on the defensive component that in my mind is questionable. Any measure that says Hammel has been as good as Tillman is just fiction IMO.

[calmunderfire]

I'm not that big a fan of WAR and other theoretical stats when it comes to pitchers. Too much hinges on the defensive component that in my mind is questionable. Any measure that says Hammel has been as good as Tillman is just fiction IMO.

If that is fangraphs WAR stay far away from it because it's about process not results. Baseball reference is more about results than process.

[Frobby]

I probably should have made standards that used IP/GS rather than IP since health can play a real factor in that. Plus, there has to be some overlaps in the ERA's and IP to really make the list more accurate. For example, Hellickson had a 3.10 ERA but only 177 IP. So in the quick ratings I did, he doesn't show up in any of the categories.

These are really just a rough estimate of what I think each slot should give you if they make 32 starts. Even so, I probably put the IP slightly too high. I think the ERA's are fairly accurate, though it's difficult to really gauge that since only 36 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last year. If you divide them into 5 different groups, the ERA ranges you get would be:

#1: 2.56 - 3.29

#2: 3.32 - 3.74

#3: 3.81 - 4.23

#4: 4.29 - 4.82

#5: 4.85 - 5.77

So...obviously the further you get from your aces, the more my standards differ from reality, but that's kind of what you expect since #5's are rarely pitchers that should really be starting in the big leagues.

All in all, the standards I made are higher than reality, but they're not that far off. As I said, though, the real problem is that there are players that overlap different categories. The numbers could definitely be refined, but I was just making a quick rating system off the cuff, so I'm not overly upset with it.

I'd argue that these ranges are still too strict, because the pitchers who qualify in general are better pitchers than those who don't. Here's what I'd say: there were 65 AL pitchers who managed to throw at least 100 innings last year -- still a little less than five pitchers per team. I'd divide them like this:

1-14: 2.56 - 3.38

15-28: 3.43 - 3.88

29-42: 3.90 - 4.58

43-56: 4.67 - 5.23

57-65: 5.34 and above

It's actually pretty amazing how few good pitchers there are.

[weams]

To say "number one guy" is comparing him, in my book, to Verlander, Kershaw, Wainwright, Samardzija, Cueto, Price, Weaver etc....

Tillman isn't in that class, nor will he ever be. But that's ok... a #2 is a very fine ceiling for a pitcher.

Cueto can't stay healthy and pitching in the NL is different. Kershaw. Verlander. King Felix. David Price. Darvish. Wainwright.

[El Gordo]

FWIW I took the likely AL contenders(OAK,TEX, LAA, DET, TB, BAL, BOS, MFY) and averaged their ERA and IP/GS. Here's what I came up with:

ERA; IP/GS

#1) 3.10; 6.4

#2) 3.68; 6.1

#3) 3.91; 6.3

In some cases a @2 had better numbers than a #1, but CC, Velander, etc, are getting the ball over anyone else in their rotations.

[Frobby]

It's time to acknowledge what Chris Tillman has done over the last year.

On July 4th 2012, Tillman was recalled to make his first start of 2012. In the last year Chris has gone 16-5 with a 3.26 ERA over 29 starts. He still will probably make 3 more starts before the full year is up.

Gary Thorne pointed out that Tillman has the third most wins in that period in the AL behind Verlander and Scherzer of the Tigers.

Tillman has become the stabilizing force in the O's rotation and I think Ace status is appropriate at this point.

What do you think?

I think you can close the books on Tillman's "year" now. His first start last year came in Game 81, and today's start was in Game 78. So, that's a full year. In that span, he made 31 starts, with a record of 18-5 and an ERA of 3.34 in 180.1 IP.

For me, the only knock on Tilly is he's still short of 6 IP per start. You can't be an "ace" at 5.82 IP per game. Hopefully he can improve on that in the second half. Still, the bottom line is that the O's usually win when he pitches.

[Moose Milligan]

He's winning me over, I agree. Frustrating that he can't always go past 6 but he's our most dependable starter.

Tonight was ace-like though. Had a high pitch count in the first inning IIRC but found a way to get it together and get through 7 innings.

[Mizerooskie]

Hasn't Mark Buehrle spent basically his whole career with crap peripherals? Would anyone say he wasn't an ace?

One season where a pitcher is 'outperforming his peripherals', and okay, I can buy that there's a lot of luck involved. But if Tillman goes another full season doing it, I'll lean toward the argument that he's just one of those pitchers that gets batters out and prevents runs in an unconventional manner.

[Mayor McCheese]

In last nights post game presser with Buck, a lot of reporters asked Buck if Tillman is that "ace" type pitcher.

Buck was very clear that he does not think Tillman is our ace. He kind of put on the brakes saying that he's learning and that he's glad Tillman is our side but that he's not ready to put Tilly in that status yet.

[Tx Oriole]

In last nights post game presser with Buck, a lot of reporters asked Buck if Tillman is that "ace" type pitcher.

Buck was very clear that he does not think Tillman is our ace. He kind of put on the brakes saying that he's learning and that he's glad Tillman is our side but that he's not ready to put Tilly in that status yet.

Who then?

[Jagwar]

Suppose Tillman wins his next 2 starts. If he is 11-2, does he get selected for the AS Game?

[backwardsk]

Suppose Tillman wins his next 2 starts. If he is 11-2, does he get selected for the AS Game?

If we didn't have 4-6 other worthy guys, then yes. I don't expect Leyland to look his way.

Ace or not, I always have a good feeling we're going to win when he takes the ball. What a difference a year makes. Hopefully at least one of Matusz, Arrieta, or Britton can make the same leap.

[Mayor McCheese]

Who then?

Who?

We don't have a true ace. Never had. With Bundy going down it may be years before we finally do.

[Mayor McCheese]

Suppose Tillman wins his next 2 starts. If he is 11-2, does he get selected for the AS Game?

Scherzer

Colon

Moore

Buchholz*

Hernandez

Iwakuma

Darvish

Don't think Tillman will make the cut unless he can get his ERA closer to 3.

[NewMarketSean]

He's clearly our best SP.

Once Chen comes back we'll have ourselves a nice little top 4 in Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, and Hammel.