O's Willing to Trade Wieters Via Ken Rosenthal

[Tryptamine]

No, he didn't. His walk rate was 12.1% in the 2nd half, up from 9.7% in the first half, up from 6.6% in 2012.

That much is true, however his babip was an unsustainable .355 in the 1st half and became a much more realistic .309 in the second half. On top of that his HR/FB ratio started to come back to the mean which led to a pretty noticeable reduction in SLG. Long story short he's not the 1.109 OPS monster he was in the first half. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two halves around a .900 OPS.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Just two more threads to start, and you'll have all the possibilities covered.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Rosenthal's tweet says that he hears the Orioles are willing to trade Wieters. All it says about Davis is that he, like Wieters, is 2 years away from free agency. He doesn't say that the Orioles are willing to trade Davis. Am I missing something?

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/400672985524502528

Yeah, it seems clear that Rosenthal's point was that the O's might need to trade Wieters so they could afford Davis.

[sportsfan8703]

Neither team accepts those trades. The Dodgers like Ellis and have no need of Wieters. The Cardinals aren't trading Martinez for Hardy.

I'm sure they like Ellis kind of like the way we like Steve Johnson. Maybe it's Hardy+ for Martinez. The Dodgers are in win now mode and Catcher is about the only position they can upgrade. They have Puig, Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford in the OF. They would have to dump two contracts to play Pederson. Pederson is definitely trade bait. Maybe we don't get Lee. But Pederson, Magill and Van Slyke would still be a good haul.

[luismatos4prez]

That much is true, however his babip was an unsustainable .355 in the 1st half and became a much more realistic .309 in the second half. On top of that his HR/FB ratio started to come back to the mean which led to a pretty noticeable reduction in SLG. Long story short he's not the 1.109 OPS monster he was in the first half. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two halves around a .900 OPS.

Overall, Davis' BABIP for 2013 was 1 point higher than it was in 2012. His OPS was still almost 200 points higher.

His HR rate might come down a bit. But his fly balls leave parks at higher rates because he has the most raw power in baseball. That's not a fluke. I'd expect 45 HRs and a mid .900s OPS next year for him.

[Babypowder]

I'm sure they like Ellis kind of like the way we like Steve Johnson. Maybe it's Hardy+ for Martinez. The Dodgers are in win now mode and Catcher is about the only position they can upgrade. They have Puig, Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford in the OF. They would have to dump two contracts to play Pederson. Pederson is definitely trade bait. Maybe we don't get Lee. But Pederson, Magill and Van Slyke would still be a good haul.

Fangraphs is more optimistic about Wieters value than BR is. Fangraphs had Ellis as about equal to Wieters in value in 33 less games. If Wieters is an upgrade at all, it's not by much.

In 2012, Ellis was at 3.7 WAR to Wieters 3.9 in 11 less games.

[stomperspc]

That much is true, however his babip was an unsustainable .355 in the 1st half and became a much more realistic .309 in the second half. On top of that his HR/FB ratio started to come back to the mean which led to a pretty noticeable reduction in SLG. Long story short he's not the 1.109 OPS monster he was in the first half. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two halves around a .900 OPS.

Davis has a career BABIP of .335. .355 is above his career rate but not ridiculously so. His relatively high BABIPis likely the result of his better-than-average line drive rate (23% career, 24% in 2013). His 2012 BABIP was .335, which was basically the same as his .336 rate in 2013. You can't compare BABIP to any league wide norm, it has to be compared to the player's career averages. Fast players or line drive hitters tend to have higher a BABIP and they aren't just suddenly going to regress to the league average (unless they lose those skills allowing them to have a higher than average BABIP).

I'd expect Davis' BABIP next season to be right around .335 (just like it was last year) since that is what it has been for his career. Nobody expects Davis to be as good as he was in the 1st half but he is still likely a .270 hitter with a .230 or so ISO. The big change from last season was the walk rate. If pitchers continue working him carefully and he continues to walk at a 10% clip, he is going to have an OPS in the high .800's, low .900's. That is a very valuable player (coupled with his solid 1B defense) and I wouldn't trade him unless I got an absolute killing in return.

[SticksandStones]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Per club source, rumors that Hardy & Wieters are available just part of initial dialogue w/ teams. They aren't on "block" or being shopped.</p>— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) <a href="

">November 13, 2013</a></blockquote>

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[oriole]

I really don't think DD is in the game of trading players just to trade them. He is stuck with Wieters, the good parts and the bad. If a team overwhelms with a nice return then go for it, I just don't see that happening.

[MachoMachadoMan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Per club source, rumors that Hardy & Wieters are available just part of initial dialogue w/ teams. They aren't on "block" or being shopped.</p>— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) <a href="

">November 13, 2013</a></blockquote>

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This is the critical part. I don't believe Duq is shopping them, but he clearly has eyes on improving specific parts of the team (pitching, pitching and more pitching) and he knows that to get something, you've gotta give something. Of the O's "core," Hardy and Wieters are most expendable, yet remain a hot commodity because of their positional value.

We don't want them to mortgage the farm (trade Bundy, Gaus, Schoop or ERod) and we know we won't be bidding high for expensive free agents. This is the remaining option.

[Mayor McCheese]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Per club source, rumors that Hardy & Wieters are available just part of initial dialogue w/ teams. They aren't on "block" or being shopped.</p>— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) <a href="

">November 13, 2013</a></blockquote>

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Thats like asking a woman out to dinner and saying its not a date but its really a date.

Well done.

[SticksandStones]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>I'll repeat <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23orioles&src=hash">#orioles</a> aren't actively shopping Hardy and Wieters. Willing to listen on anyone, but not looking to move unless overwhelmed</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">November 13, 2013</a></blockquote>

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[Redskins Rick]

The silliness of the off-season.

SMH

[sportsfan8703]

Fangraphs is more optimistic about Wieters value than BR is. Fangraphs had Ellis as about equal to Wieters in value in 33 less games. If Wieters is an upgrade at all, it's not by much.

In 2012, Ellis was at 3.7 WAR to Wieters 3.9 in 11 less games.

Exactly why I wouldn't mind trading him. Get a team to buy into his HR's and GG's. But defensive metrics for catchers are mostly not reliable yet.

[wildcard]

To me it a shot over Boras bow. A way of changing the general thinking about what can happen.

Up till now its seemed that the O's would sign Wieters to a one year deal if they couldn't come to a long term deal this winter. But this really says to other GMs 'if we can't sign Wieters long term we will be willing to trade him'.

I think it will open up more discussions with GMs in the future and puts Wieters and Boras on notice that though the O's don't want to trade Wieters, they will rather than watch his value drop over the next two year as free agency nears.