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How to spend 10.8 million dollars on your bullpen


centralpaosfan

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They didn't sign him to close. They found themselves in a bind, and they got lucky. They didn't plan for that. You can't plan for that. Even at that, with that luck, that would still be $6.9 in salary savings. Please understand that I totally agree that $10.8 is too much. It seems ridibulous to me that that would be a reasonable salary determined through arbitration. It is, however, apparently the way it is. The entire amount, however, is clearly not all overpayment. There is a fair market value there, and it is not zero.

For the most part, closers are fungible. Check the number of closers on April 1 that were still closers at the end of the year. I believe only 2 or three closers entering 2014 will have been the closer on their team for 3 years or more.

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They didn't sign him to close. They found themselves in a bind, and they got lucky. They didn't plan for that. You can't plan for that.

You can plan to sign and keep/pay good pitchers with good peripherals. Good relief pitchers with good peripherals can likely close. Luck had little to do with it.

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For the most part, closers are fungible. Check the number of closers on April 1 that were still closers at the end of the year. I believe only 2 or three closers entering 2014 will have been the closer on their team for 3 years or more.

And how many have never been closers at all?

Whether you and I agree with it or not, MLB teams have repeatedly shown that they want to go with experienced closers. They are often forced in-season to go with guys without that experience due to performance breakdown or injury, but they do not seek to enter the season with an unknown quantity closing games for them. They just don't. Colorado just signed LaTroy Hawkins to close, for crying out loud, despite the fact that Rex Brothers performed well when forced to step into the role for the second half of 2013. I don't get that one at all, but there it is. They wanted more experience in the role than Brothers offered. I think it will probably bite them in the butt early on and by mid-season we sill see Brothers back closing, but Hawkins is there for now.

In any case, my point remains that whatever JJ ends up getting paid, it is not anywhere close to being 100% overpayment.

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And how many have never been closers at all?

Whether you and I agree with it or not, MLB teams have repeatedly shown that they want to go with experienced closers. They are often forced in-season to go with guys without that experience due to performance breakdown or injury, but they do not seek to enter the season with an unknown quantity closing games for them. They just don't. Colorado just signed LaTroy Hawkins to close, for crying out loud, despite the fact that Rex Brothers performed well when forced to step into the role for the second half of 2013. I don't get that one at all, but there it is. They wanted more experience in the role than Brothers offered. I think it will probably bite them in the butt early on and by mid-season we sill see Brothers back closing, but Hawkins is there for now.

In any case, my point remains that whatever JJ ends up getting paid, it is not anywhere close to being 100% overpayment.

I don't necessarily disagree in that there is some value we can assign to Johnson's production. But ideally you promote your internal candidate and slide someone from your system into the pen as needed. In that circumstance, you can save pretty much Johnson's full salary.

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I don't necessarily disagree in that there is some value we can assign to Johnson's production. But ideally you promote your internal candidate and slide someone from your system into the pen as needed. In that circumstance, you can save pretty much Johnson's full salary.

What do you think about making Gaussman the closer in 2014? It wasn't to popular on here when I proposed it before. IMO we have a 2 year window where we can be competitive and I'd be willing to sacrafice some of Gaussman's 2014 development (who I don't think is ready to start next year, but looks like he could be be a lights out closer).

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What do you think about making Gaussman the closer in 2014? It wasn't to popular on here when I proposed it before. IMO we have a 2 year window where we can be competitive and I'd be willing to sacrafice some of Gaussman's 2014 development (who I don't think is ready to start next year, but looks like he could be be a lights out closer).

My concern there is that there's very little pitching depth in the system, and he's arguably your best bullet. If the current rotation were a little sturdier, and I thought the team was capable of seriously competing, I'd be more into that option. I'd hate to have him miss a year of development serving as closer on an 84 win team.

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You know, for more than a year now, maybe two, the idea of a Porcello-for-JJ trade has been floated here and on multiple sites in Detroit and nationally. I've alway thought that was a great fit, but I've never seen what the Tigers and Orioles thought of it. Has it been discussed? If so, which team drives the discussion and which team isn't really keen on the idea. What else would need to be included from either team to make it work?

It has seemed like a fit, but right now it seems there are unfortunately other closer options available, with not so much competition in the marketplace for the Tigers. Last I saw, they were looking hard at signing Wilson. Clearly, however, if there are any serious discussions on this, or discussions with any other team involving JJ, the Orioles can't say that they plan to non-tender JJ.

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Yeah, look at Grilli. The Cardinals crap a new closer every couple years. Usually for peanuts.

Here's the thing I haven't read yet on this thread: the Orioles can play the next-man-up game for sure, but can they consistently develop a closer? Saint Louis and their remarkable pitching development staff can do that. Do we have that kind of confidence in our R&D staff yet? Look at Koji Uehara. He's been a fantastic reliever since he came to to the majors... but he was just a part time closer in Baltimore and then he was traded (albeit with trade return that made it worth doing). Now somebody finally had the bright idea of installing him as full time closer and lo, he recorded the final out of the season.

Tommy Hunter seems like the natural choice to step in for JJ if the event arises. Darren O'Day is an unconventional possibility. Yet from the organization (aka Buck), we hear that neither can carry the load as closer quite like JJ can. What does that really mean?

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22312

Nate explains why measuring pitchers' strikeout and walk rates using outs as a denominator--i.e., rates per nine innings--is less useful than measuring rates per batter faced. This is fairly common practice now, but a) not the most common practice, and b) he takes it a step further to show how K/9 creates a notion of linearity that is actually not consistent with real life
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Here's the thing I haven't read yet on this thread: the Orioles can play the next-man-up game for sure, but can they consistently develop a closer? Saint Louis and their remarkable pitching development staff can do that. Do we have that kind of confidence in our R&D staff yet? Look at Koji Uehara. He's been a fantastic reliever since he came to to the majors... but he was just a part time closer in Baltimore and then he was traded (albeit with trade return that made it worth doing). Now somebody finally had the bright idea of installing him as full time closer and lo, he recorded the final out of the season.

Tommy Hunter seems like the natural choice to step in for JJ if the event arises. Darren O'Day is an unconventional possibility. Yet from the organization (aka Buck), we hear that neither can carry the load as closer quite like JJ can. What does that really mean?

Well, in Buck's defense, JJ is very durable and doesn't the issue with platoon splits that Hunter and DoD had last year.

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Well, in Buck's defense, JJ is very durable and doesn't the issue with platoon splits that Hunter and DoD had last year.

Exactly. Meaning their role as closer over a full season would come with question marks. So would we throw out say Josh Stinson and expect him to perform well? That would be the equivalent of Saint Louis rifling through their closers. Saint Louis can do it, but do we have enough confidence in our pitching coaches to be able to throw Stinson to the wolves?

Point being, JJ is an established, proven veteran who we know can close. Had a down year last year in terms of blown saves. If the Orioles can't develop another young closer, they'd have to purchase a replacement for JJ through free agency. And there aren't many names on his level out there. Kimbrel, Holland etc. are not for sale.

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Yeah, there is an issue with strikeout rate being measured as strikeouts per 9 innings instead of batters faced, because it punishes groundball pitchers who coax more double plays than the average pitcher.

Leave it to Nate Silver to have discovered that in 2003!

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Leave it to Nate Silver to have discovered that in 2003!

In the end, the peripheral stats account for it. You put more balls in play, you yield more hits, more men on base ... and more runs. With some exceptions, GB's and FB's equal out in terms of runs.

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