How to spend 10.8 million dollars on your bullpen

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>.<a href="https://twitter.com/Rangers">@Rangers</a> Jon Daniels on 9th inning: "We're not going to bring in anybody that's 'the closer' in name." <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SXMSports&src=hash">#SXMSports</a></p>— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) <a href="

">November 26, 2013</a></blockquote>

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Texas does not want a closer.

[NJ BIRD FAN]

Cost isn't the crux of my argument, the rhetoric is. Johnson has helped this team win, and can help this team win, no matter the cost. Like I said, I don't advocate giving any reliever $10 million a year, but to say Johnson can't help this team win is ridiculous. The underlying crux of the argument is people are still pissed of about last season and the playoffs and are all of a sudden on the anyone but Johnson train. Lets face it, if Jim Johnson doesn't blow as many saves this past season, this convertsation isn't as black and white as it is, and a certain contingency of people would be less inclined to see him gone.

But he did. No one would be complaining about the 10 million if he was Mariano Rivera. He isn't and does not deserve anywhere near 10 million. That is the point.

[NJ BIRD FAN]

I believe with all my heart that if Bud Norris was thrown out there in the ninth inning, he would do what J.J. does.

I believe with all my heart that if Steve Johnson were thrown out there in the ninth inning he would be close to as good as Jim was last year.

The year before was just amazing for Jim Johnson. I think a lot of good fortune was involved.

This. Any number of pitchers could do what JJ did the last two years. Many of then on the Orioles.

[skanar]

Jim Johnson is projected to make 10.8 million dollars next year. Here is a bullpen that could be put together for roughly the same price:

This is the silliest Jim Johnson post yet. Most of these guys are in arb or on some sort of 2 or 3 year deal, so I could go into detail about how the fact that JJ's arb deal will be only one year limits the inherent risk of signing relievers. But your math is so bad I'm just going to focus on that.

Drew Storen

In his 2nd year of arb. Projected to make $3.6M per MLBTR.

Jason Grilli

On a 2 yr $6.75M deal. With the uneven split, he's making $4.25M in 2014. Spreading the cost evenly, $3.375M.

Joakim Soria

Signed for 2/$8M. With the uneven split, it's $5.5M in 2014. Spread evenly, $4M.

Aroldis Chapman

Due to the signing bonus and player option, he has a contract that works out to $5M per season.

Brian Wilson

Coming off surgery, he's expected to sign with Detroit. I'll assume he'll make $2M in 2014 just to be nice to you - but he's going to make more than $2M. MLBTR is projecting a 1/$8.5M deal.

Greg Holland

MLBTR is projecting a $4.9M salary in year 1 of arb. That sounds pretty high, so let's drop it to $4M.

Craig Kimbrell

Kimbrel will be in his first year of arb as well. MLBTR is projecting $7.25M.

I'm going to assume you weren't trying to make a point as puerile as "pre-arb players don't cost much" and instead suggest you can't add. Here's the math:

3.6 + 3.375 + 4 + 5 + 2 (probably actually 8.5) + 4 + 7.25 = $29.225 million for this set of mostly early-arb players next season.

I respectfully suggest the mods retitle the thread with the more realistic number.

[oriole]

Texas does not want a closer.

Texas is smart to not pay for a dumb stat. Too bad the Orioles won't take notice.

[waroriole]

This is the silliest Jim Johnson post yet. Most of these guys are in arb or on some sort of 2 or 3 year deal, so I could go into detail about how the fact that JJ's arb deal will be only one year limits the inherent risk of signing relievers. But your math is so bad I'm just going to focus on that.

In his 2nd year of arb. Projected to make $3.6M per MLBTR.

On a 2 yr $6.75M deal. With the uneven split, he's making $4.25M in 2014. Spreading the cost evenly, $3.375M.

Signed for 2/$8M. With the uneven split, it's $5.5M in 2014. Spread evenly, $4M.

Due to the signing bonus and player option, he has a contract that works out to $5M per season.

Coming off surgery, he's expected to sign with Detroit. I'll assume he'll make $2M in 2014 just to be nice to you - but he's going to make more than $2M. MLBTR is projecting a 1/$8.5M deal.

MLBTR is projecting a $4.9M salary in year 1 of arb. That sounds pretty high, so let's drop it to $4M.

Kimbrel will be in his first year of arb as well. MLBTR is projecting $7.25M.

I'm going to assume you weren't trying to make a point as puerile as "pre-arb players don't cost much" and instead suggest you can't add. Here's the math:

3.6 + 3.375 + 4 + 5 + 2 (probably actually 8.5) + 4 + 7.25 = $29.225 million for this set of mostly early-arb players next season.

I respectfully suggest the mods retitle the thread with the more realistic number.

Ha, you know he just went and pulled names out of a hat without even looking at their salary.

[stomperspc]

It makes my head hurt that they're willing to give Johnson this money, but not someone better/more reliable like Balfour.

Balfour has a 92.5% save rate over the past two seasons. Johnson has an 89.4% success rate over the same time period but has had 39 more opportunities. I don't think we can just assume that Balfour would keep up his save rate if he was being used in save situations as often as Johnson has. Johnson has the better SO/BB walk rate. Johnson has been worth exactly .1 rWAR more than Balfour in each the past two seasons (so virtually the same). I am not even necessarily arguing that Johnson is better than Balfour but to suggest that Balfour is clearly better is pushing it.

[Stotle]

Kimbrel will be in his first year of arb as well. MLBTR is projecting $7.25M.

I don't have my closers arb data here, but if that is indeed what Kimbrel gets then wow does the decision to give Johnson 1/6.5 last year look even worse. For the record, that number looks solid for Kimbrel based on experience and numbers, though I think he might have a strong argument for more. If memory serves, he'll be in very elite company.

EDIT -- found my BP writeup with partial data.

Looks like $7.5 puts him right between K-Rod and Brian Wilson, which fits given service time, service time as full time closer, and accumulated saves.

[centralpaosfan]

Ha, you know he just went and pulled names out of a hat without even looking at their salary.

What a maroon.

Being called a moron by someone who cannot spell it. That's rich right there.

[skanar]

I don't have my closers arb data here, but if that is indeed what Kimbrel gets then wow does the decision to give Johnson 1/6.5 last year look even worse. For the record, that number looks solid for Kimbrel based on experience and numbers, though I think he might have a strong argument for more. If memory serves, he'll be in very elite company.

EDIT -- found my BP writeup with partial data.

Looks like $7.5 puts him right between K-Rod and Brian Wilson, which fits given service time, service time as full time closer, and accumulated saves.

Why? This is Kimbrel's 1st arb year - last year was Johnson's second.

I think it makes a lot more sense to compare Johnson's deal to the 1-yr FA deals. If Brian Wilson indeed gets 1/$8M coming off surgery and 13 good innings, then Johnson's contract begins to seem a lot more reasonable.

[Stotle]

Why? This is Kimbrel's 1st arb year - last year was Johnson's second.

I think it makes a lot more sense to compare Johnson's deal to the 1-yr FA deals. If Brian Wilson indeed gets 1/$8M coming off surgery and 13 good innings, then Johnson's contract begins to seem a lot more reasonable.

No. You need to compare apples to apples. Kimbrel getting $7.5 puts him in line with historical compensation trends which hold that in order to get over $6MM in arg you need to 1) show sustained success in the role of closer (evidenced by multiple years of service in the role), and 2) accumulate over 100 saves as of the completion of your platform year.

Since 2007 (keeping trends recent and relevant) no reliever with service time comparable to Johnson's as of last offseason has ever been awarded a salary north of $6 MM without meeting that criteria, and no reliever that has met that criteria has made less than Lidge's adjusted salary of $6.25 MM (aside from Soria, who was under a multi-year deal and negotiated long term security over annual realization).

Baltimore's proposed $5.7 million was perfectly in line with historical trends (I'm adding Kimbrel and Johnson in bold, as well, with projected 2014 salaries - rounding down to $10 MM for Johnson):

Player / Years as Closer / Career Saves / Salary / Adjusted Salary

Johnson (2013) / 2+ / 122 / 10.0 / 10.0

Papelbon (2009) / 4 / 151 / 9.35 / 9.76

Wilson (2011) / 4+ / 170 / 8.5 / 8.5

K-Rod (2006) / 2+ / 106 / 7.0 / 8.04

Jenks (2009) / 4+ / 146 / 7.50 / 7.83

Kimbrel (2013) / 3 / 139 / 7.25 / 7.25

Cordero (2007) / 3+ / 128 / 6.20 / 6.76

Lidge (2006) / 2+ / 104 / 5.35 / 6.25

Johnson (2012) / 1+ / 72 / 5.70 / 5.70

Kimbrel gets slightly dinged for lack of service time as closer, but should shoot past $10 MM at this time next year. Look at that list -- Johnson is getting paid so much more than comparable closer service time/production players its almost silly.

[TonySoprano]

Being called a moron by someone who cannot spell it. That's rich right there.

Maybe you might want to go back and defend your numbers in the OP. Take that as a friendly suggestion.

I'll worry about the

[El Gordo]

This. Any number of pitchers could do what JJ did the last two years. Many of then on the Orioles.

Your kidding right? What RP on this team can give you 101 sv at an 89 sv% over the next two years? We don't have any one who is effective getting both LH and RH batters out, let alone being that consistent with saves.

[25 Nuggets]

Grant Balfour is a name that compares to Jim Johnson, I'll give you that. He has done a superb job for the Oakland As.

I wouldn't trust Hanrahan as much. He doesn't quite have the track record, just one fabulous season. Even in his AS 2012 season he gave up 1.2 HR/9 and 5.4 BB/9.

[weams]

Grant Balfour is a name that compares to Jim Johnson, I'll give you that. He has done a superb job for the Oakland As.

I wouldn't trust Hanrahan as much. He doesn't quite have the track record, just one fabulous season. Even in his AS 2012 season he gave up 1.2 HR/9 and 5.4 BB/9.

Give give Johnson Balfour's park for half his save opportunities. That would be something.