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Jen Royle: Orioles open to trading Valencia ( Traded to KC for OF David Lough)


Barnaby Graves

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You're right to be skeptical about his defensive numbers transitioning from KC to BAL. That will probably have an impact. But, I still think his floor is a +10 defender - he does have a +27 UZR/150 in 835 innings, after all.

That's half a season. I don't think there is anyone I'd say has an absolute floor of +10 defense. Remember Chris Singleton? First three years in Chicago has was +40. Traded to the O's and was a -4. Alex Rios was +16 per 150 games through age 27, below average since. As a rookie Jeff Francoeur was +18 in 600 innings and has been all over the place since.

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That's half a season. I don't think there is anyone I'd say has an absolute floor of +10 defense. Remember Chris Singleton? First three years in Chicago has was +40. Traded to the O's and was a -4. Alex Rios was +16 per 150 games through age 27, below average since. As a rookie Jeff Francoeur was +18 in 600 innings and has been all over the place since.

I meant floor as in something more along the lines of his true talent level- what would be reasonable to expect for him next year. Basically even though he has only half a season of defensive metrics at the major league level, they were so crazy good that it's probably reasonable to expect him to be a plus defender. Not to mention he definitely passes the scout/eye test, for whatever that is worth.

I realize wild year to year variations in defense are common and defensive skills can inexplicably erode without any warning- just like offensive skills, although probably more volatile. Lough is going to be a very volatile player to project, because his offensive value as a low BB, low power, kinda-low K profile will be extremely BABIP driven.

Do you disagree that he's probably a 1.5-2 win player as a projection, but with large error bars on either side of it? A high BABIP and continued ~+20 defense could make him nearly a 4 win player, but a low BABIP and <+10 defense could make him replacement level, or worse.

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Since I'm not up for re-reading the 28 pages here, who has said that Lough is the key to our offseason? This was a nice, useful little trade. Nothing more or less.

A lot of people tried to paint it as a big move initially, as though we had not only replaced McLouth's production but also improved upon it. It also probably didn't help morale around here that DD almost immediately named him the new LF.

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Since I'm not up for re-reading the 28 pages here, who has said that Lough is the key to our offseason? This was a nice, useful little trade. Nothing more or less.

Relax, I was responding to some others. I by no means think he's the key to the off season. He could be useful and may be on the whole more useful than Valencia, but when it gets down to nice little moves drawing the bulk of the attention then there are other issues.

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Relax, I was responding to some others. I by no means think he's the key to the off season. He could be useful and may be on the whole more useful than Valencia, but when it gets down to nice little moves drawing the bulk of the attention then there are other issues.

Well, there certainly are other issues that are bigger than this one. But I liked this move even though I think there's a risk that Lough won't replicate or improve on his 2013 season. I liked Valencia, but I think we sold high on him to get Lough (see what I did there?).

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He's going to be the fastest everyday player on the team and Buck is pretty old school so I think it's almost a lock that he bats leadoff. Remember when Hardy's sub-.300 OBP stunk up the 2 hole all year in 2012?

And I'm pretty sure that with the Xavier Paul signing, the DH pool is set- it will be some combination of Paul, Reimold, Pearce, Urrutia, and Almanzar. Maybe Peguero can claw his way into the conversation with a hot spring but I doubt we'll see any other significant additions to that pool of candidates.

Yeah I am worried about this - BUT we do have Markakis, who is basically Lough's same offensive profile (LH, contact, low power, minimal splits) who actually walks and gets on base, even if he's slower. I think Buck is smart enough to go with Markakis over Lough as the initial leadoff hitter.

Weeks is also a high-ish OBP player with lots of speed - if we get lucky with him and he comes through on his minor league numbers and takes the job from Flaherty, he might leadoff over Lough.

Lough will see some time as the leadoff guy when Markakis is not, but as long as he's consistently in the lower third of the lineup, that's ok.

I am definitely worried that Paul means we are not going to address DH, but I think that's a big mistake. Lough gave us a big boost to OF defense, which we needed, but our offense still needs one more piece to be where it needs to be.

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I think he is an average-ish LFer with more opportunity to backslide than breakout. If he has a year where he hits .250 he will have an ugly OBP. I usually don't trust consistently high BABIPs from guys with low power.
I think he is an average-ish LFer with more opportunity to backslide than breakout. If he has a year where he hits .250 he will have an ugly OBP. I usually don't trust consistently high BABIPs from guys with low power.

This is true, but he is hovering around a .120 ISO based on last year and his projections, which is bad but not extremely worrisome. He's roughly a 4.5 BB%, 14.5 K%, .120 ISO player- similar guys like that last year were Jean Segura, Daniel Murphy, Michael Brantley, Carl Crawford, and Erick Aybar. Zach Cozart and Leonys Martin as well, though they had higher K%. The only really worrisome comps I saw were Daniel Descalso and Mike Aviles.

Basically, that's alot of guys who are pretty good players who derive their value from defense to make up for a 80-90 wRC+. The only bad players are Descalso and Aviles, who aren't good enough defenders. Brantley and Crawford are nice comps for him- Brantley has slightly less power and slightly better BB/K numbers, Crawford slightly more BB and more speed.

I know this is a biased sample because I'm just choosing the guys who hit well enough to be major league players with that offensive profile, but that's a list of pretty well established guys, not fluke seasons. I am worried that Lough could crater with a low OBP, but he could also turn into a Brantley or a Crawford (with less speed), which is a solid starter and really nice get for Danny Valencia and a league minimum salary.

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Yeah I am worried about this - BUT we do have Markakis, who is basically Lough's same offensive profile (LH, contact, low power, minimal splits) who actually walks and gets on base, even if he's slower. I think Buck is smart enough to go with Markakis over Lough as the initial leadoff hitter.

Weeks is also a high-ish OBP player with lots of speed - if we get lucky with him and he comes through on his minor league numbers and takes the job from Flaherty, he might leadoff over Lough.

Lough will see some time as the leadoff guy when Markakis is not, but as long as he's consistently in the lower third of the lineup, that's ok.

I am definitely worried that Paul means we are not going to address DH, but I think that's a big mistake. Lough gave us a big boost to OF defense, which we needed, but our offense still needs one more piece to be where it needs to be.

I certainly hope you're right on both counts but I fear that Buck's old school tendencies and DD's budgetary constraints may ultimately prove to be stronger than logic in these matters. Time will tell, I suppose.

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