Jump to content

New Fangraphs article "The Orioles Stars and Scrubs Problem"


Say O!

Recommended Posts

I guess my point is that if you have nothing on the farm then sometimes you have to take a chance on a lottery ticket. There is no reason why Hart would preclude having Lough on the team.

I dunno. Every move out there is wrought with some kind of risk. Just because a risk comes with the lowest price tag does not make it a better one. Hart might not work out....maybe he would who knows...we won't.

If the O's are not able to add anything between now and spring training that will impact this team in a significantly positive way, I think its a bit wishful thinking to think we will be competitive. I hope I am dead wrong but I see a team right now that is at best equal to last years and that was not good enough. I think the MFY will be better, Toronto can't help but have better luck and Tampa has pitching. At the end of the day if we don't improve and put ourselves in a better position to win that will be disappointing. I am not sure that saying....yeah well we are in budget will make me or many fans feel much better about it if we take a step back.

Still time though to make some modest moves that can help. I guess my frustration is that I see a team core that with a little help could win and potentially go all the way. Playing it safe may prevent this team from having a Tampa run of 1010 loss seasons but teams like the O's have to be willing to take some chances to compete. Risk aversion is an admirable quality to a point ...beyond that its as much a hindrance as throwing all caution to the wind.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

I think that they would have tried to play Hart in left field. That is why Lough would not be on the team. I think we should spend some money and take some risk. Hart was not my choice. I think it is EXTREMELY difficult to find excess value in Free Agency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 167
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I think that they would have tried to play Hart in left field. That is why Lough would not be on the team. I think we should spend some money and take some risk. Hart was not my choice. Beltran was.

We think alike in that regard lol.

Beltran would have been my first choice also but I was trying to be toned down in terms of financial commitment. Beltran is a guy who could have had a massive impact IMO.

Lough though has done nothing as a pro that would dictate he be a starter. His AAA numbers in the PCL were mediocre. I do think though his profile suggests he has intangibles that wiuld make him an ideal 4th OF with the potential to prove he could handle more.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see what you are saying. But in Hart's case it would be a six million dollar gamble. This is a guy who missed all of last year, and has had surgery on both knees. It would really hurt the Orioles if they spent this kind of money on a guy to be their regular DH and he under performs or misses 60 to 90 games.

As bizarre as it sounds to normal humans...6M is just not that much money in baseball's world. And you have to look at overall expected value, not just worst case scenarios.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As bizarre as it sounds to normal humans...6M is just not that much money in baseball's world. And you have to look at overall expected value, not just worst case scenarios.

To put it in perspective, it's more than the Nationals paid McLouth. So I agree that it's not a tremendous amount of money in that regard. If Hart approaches his former form, he's a steal at that number. If he struggles, or has knee issues, he'll be a bust.

I understand that he is a high risk/high reward guy, and I think he fits nicely into your theory. However, I think that his not playing last year and still getting this salary took the Orioles out of his market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To put it in perspective, it's more than the Nationals paid McLouth. So I agree that it's not a tremendous amount of money in that regard. If Hart approaches his former form, he's a steal at that number. If he struggles, or has knee issues, he'll be a bust.

I understand that he is a high risk/high reward guy, and I think he fits nicely into your theory. However, I think that his not playing last year and still getting this salary took the Orioles out of his market.

Oh, there's no chance they'd sign a player like that. That's my complaint. The O's love to play it safe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As bizarre as it sounds to normal humans...6M is just not that much money in baseball's world. And you have to look at overall expected value, not just worst case scenarios.
You think Hart's medicals are any better than Balfour's? Balfour hasn't been on the DL in 8 years. Hart missed the whole season last year. If we couldn't get Balfour past PA at 7M, why do you think we would have gotten Hart past him for 6M?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, there's no chance they'd sign a player like that. That's my complaint. The O's love to play it safe.
We have an unreasonably risk adverse owner, by baseball standards. Nothing we can do about that. We are also taking a risk with Lough, but it's low risk high reward.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You think Hart's medicals are any better than Balfour's? Balfour hasn't been on the DL in 8 years. Hart missed the whole season last year. If we couldn't get Balfour past PA at 7M, why do you think we would have gotten Hart past him for 6M?

Because Hart has been worth 2+ WAR four times (3+ three times), and Balfour's high is 2.1 and he has only two other seasons over 1.0? You can argue the risk is higher with Hart but the potential reward also is much higher.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am late this this thread, but thought I would mention that I thought the concepts mentioned in the article were generally excellent. A couple of thoughts about the article:

- I severely dislike the stars and scrubs concept, but do not believe it is one espoused by the Os currently, it is just how the talent base is adding up.

- the article reflects upon the lack of depth in our system

- the article reflects the lack of respect around baseball for some of our guys like Flaherty, Reimold and Lough as legit contributors of over 1.5 WAR.

- it is interesting the article talks about the big five but does not include Tillman as part of a Big 6 generating 18 WAR.

- I do not have a dislike for Dan Duquette, but it is difficult for me to look at the expected WAR productions and not ask - Dan Duquette, what have you done to contribute to this team in your two years? FF found MiGon for him, and DD has traded for Lough and Norris, and signed Urrutia (at a net cost of a supplemental first round pick, Hader, DelMonico, JJohnson and Valencia), but DD has mostly been a captain directing a ship whose most important parts were procured by the prior owner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Because Hart has been worth 2+ WAR four times (3+ three times), and Balfour's high is 2.1 and he has only two other seasons over 1.0? You can argue the risk is higher with Hart but the potential reward also is much higher.

Just a fair question... Do you think Dan follows this WAR evaluation? And more importantly, do you think he could sell it to PA?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You think Hart's medicals are any better than Balfour's? Balfour hasn't been on the DL in 8 years. Hart missed the whole season last year. If we couldn't get Balfour past PA at 7M, why do you think we would have gotten Hart past him for 6M?

Well, seeing as I said this is the kind of move that the O's should but won't consider...I clearly don't think that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Because Hart has been worth 2+ WAR four times (3+ three times), and Balfour's high is 2.1 and he has only two other seasons over 1.0? You can argue the risk is higher with Hart but the potential reward also is much higher.
I'm not the one to argue with, it's the owner who decides the medical issues.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I get that. I don't think Duquette entered the offseason with the intention of downsizing his payroll, but it may now be that because he has misplayed his hand, he has no intelligent way to spend the money he has available. But we'll see. I'm pretty sure we'll make some notable acquisitions in the next four weeks, it's just a matter of whether they'll be ones that materially improve the club in the short or long run, or whether they're poor moves that don't materially improve the team in either time frame.

You may very well be right, but dang, those words "Resource Allocation" is just mind blowing, why would he use that??????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
    • I’m saying the Os had an agreement with MLB and that should have held up.  Been pretty clear about that. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...