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New Fangraphs article "The Orioles Stars and Scrubs Problem"


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It just bugs me when you or others says things as an absolute certainty that hasn't happened yet. It's fine if that's your opinion. I just disagree.

Your right in that nothing is certain. I do think when the team bypasses options that were out there that could have been a good fit at a reasonable price and then spends more time complaining how mulch the rest cost....its a bad omen.

I have hope they will make an addition or two that will increase the teams competitive viability. I just happen to think a tea that has the core this one does, acts differently if they really have winning at the forefront of their minds.

There have been deals that would have made no sense for this team to make but there have been guys who could have been signed at a reasonable market rate who would have added to the overall talent level and thus our ability to compete. It is what is...i can see both sides though. Yes the off-season is far from over but I also think to some degree if Pete really valued the fans (his customers) they would have been more aggressive and willing to spend more to deliver their fans a payoff for the years of futility under this ownership.

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I think what worries some of us.

The past two years was a blessing from the previous 14, and some of us are worried, this sudden downsizing the payroll, reduces the chances of a 3rd straight winning season.

Well, I get that. I don't think Duquette entered the offseason with the intention of downsizing his payroll, but it may now be that because he has misplayed his hand, he has no intelligent way to spend the money he has available. But we'll see. I'm pretty sure we'll make some notable acquisitions in the next four weeks, it's just a matter of whether they'll be ones that materially improve the club in the short or long run, or whether they're poor moves that don't materially improve the team in either time frame.

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Well, I get that. I don't think Duquette entered the offseason with the intention of downsizing his payroll, but it may now be that because he has misplayed his hand, he has no intelligent way to spend the money he has available. But we'll see. I'm pretty sure we'll make some notable acquisitions in the next four weeks, it's just a matter of whether they'll be ones that materially improve the club in the short or long run, or whether they're poor moves that don't materially improve the team in either time frame.

In the back of my mind that scares me some. We'll see...

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I feel like you play devil's advocate to the extreme and to your own detriment sometimes. Nobody said conserving cost-controlled talent = World Championship. Sometimes you do everything right and lose. That happens a lot. But it's the only viable path (other than relying on hope and blind luck) that leads to a team with a chance at consistently contending.

We could spend our remaining 20M, add another 4-5 wins, and go into 2014 as probably a true talent 82-84 win team with, say, a 40% shot to be in the playoff picture on September 1st and a 20% shot to be there with a week to play. Then next offseason we have no money to spend, arbitration raises to give out, and people who advocated for all-in this offseason complaining that we need to raise our payroll because it's unfair we can't afford to upgrade what was probably like an 85 win team.

There's no way around the law of surplus value. A team with 100M payroll to allocate must have about 100M in surplus value to be a true talent 90 win team. You can be a true talent 80 win team and win 90 games, but that's hitching your star to the roll of some really weighted dice. You can get mad about that if you want, but remember that the only reason we even get to have this conversation and two winning seasons in a row is because of what young, cost-controlled talent we have. And remember, if you please, every thread last season about "I'd move Bundy for star X" or "we should trade Machado for star Y in a heartbeat" when players like that are the only reason this club has both a present and a future.

I'm not mad about anything, and I agree with you for the most part. The point of my post wasn't that your way is "wrong," per se, for the long term success of a capable organization. The point of my post (well, one of the main points, anyway), is that the Orioles haven't done anything to prove that they can do what you want them to do. They had a bunch of recent, top-five draft picks by virtue of being terrible for a long time, and several of those picks have either formed parts of the current core, or are "waiting in the wings" (or recovering from surgery to said wings...though all is not lost!).

The Orioles have not found themselves competitive over the last couple years due to their player development system turning a corner. The Orioles haven't suddenly shown themselves capable of developing a surplus of young, cost controlled talent. Andy MacPhail made some shrewd trades that account for much of the current core, and very, very high draft picks account for most of the rest (save for Chen and Gonzalez, for example).

Accordingly, I look at what the situation seems to be right now (i.e., same ownership, much of the same infrastructure, but a competitive core), and I'd prefer that the Orioles take the easy way (i.e., free agency) in order to stay relevant for a couple of seasons. Because, unless something drastic happens in the warehouse between now and the next draft, I don't think they're capable of doing what you want them to do. And, if they tread water between now and spring training with the hope of continuing to "build through the draft," I think the result is going to be continued regression in 2014 and beyond, followed by the mass exodus of the Orioles who matter when their free agent years roll around.

I'm not saying my way is better, or even smart...I'm saying, if the point of all this is to win games, and if the Orioles FO and management ain't changing anytime soon, I'd like the team to take the easiest, most likely path to staying competitive for a couple of seasons (i.e., spending that $20 million on those extra wins). If YOU were running the team and managing its purse strings, perhaps my answer would be different. Unfortunately, that's not the Orioles' reality.

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Its frustrating as a fan to see our window pass us by. We won't be god awful, their is enough core talent to likely ensure that, we won't be as competitive as we could have been though IMO and that's frustrating as well. In MLB and most sports treading water (being generous in describing our off-season to date)is the same as going backwards. Still time to make a few moves but the ones that have been made to date are not indicative of a team who is trying to get over the top and give its fans a legit chance to compete IMO.

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You do realize that Dan's acquisitions of Feldman, Norris, Rodriguez and Morris were intended to be that right? We also had claimed sever high priced bats that ended up being withdrawn when deals could not be reached. We tried. Our pitching limped towards the end and our Bats got cold. Chen and Gonzalez were both sub par at the end.

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The Orioles have not found themselves competitive over the last couple years due to their player development system turning a corner. The Orioles haven't suddenly shown themselves capable of developing a surplus of young, cost controlled talent. Andy MacPhail made some shrewd trades that account for much of the current core, and very, very high draft picks account for most of the rest (save for Chen and Gonzalez, for example).

Accordingly, I look at what the situation seems to be right now (i.e., same ownership, much of the same infrastructure, but a competitive core), and I'd prefer that the Orioles take the easy way (i.e., free agency) in order to stay relevant for a couple of seasons. Because, unless something drastic happens in the warehouse between now and the next draft, I don't think they're capable of doing what you want them to do.

I agree that the fact that the Orioles are competitive right now has little to do with their own player development system. To be fair, though, I don't think we really know whether the drafting and development have turned the corner since Duquette took over. There are some encouraging signs, but enough time hasn't elapsed to really judge how much progress we've made.

I'm kind of excited that we could see all of Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez, Schoop and Wright in a major league uniform before this year is over. I may be in the minority, but I think the chances we see Bundy in September are pretty high.

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You do realize that Dan's acquisitions of Feldman, Norris, Rodriguez and Morris were intended to be that right? We also had claimed sever high priced bats that ended up being withdrawn when deals could not be reached. We tried. Our pitching limped towards the end and our Bats got cold. Chen and Gonzalez were both sub par at the end.

I get all that. You do realize that the whole point of the off-season is to NOT go into a season fancying yourself a competitor with Jake Arrieta (who had proven nothing) in your rotation. It also is an opportunity to not have to trade what little talent you have acquiring talent that could have been acquired in the off-season.

Hey if you think this team is making the right moves .... its cool. I sometimes think some people on here suffer from Stockholm Syndrome if they believe what we are doing is the right way to do it if winning matters. To each their own I guess. I think DD is doing what he can with what he has but as a fan I expect a team to do its best to provide me a customer who is willing to spend a competitive product. Sorry if I refuse to blindly believe that this off-season has been positive in any way.

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I wasn't saying he didn't deserve it (and my fault if it was Ron Washington who added him to the team, couldn't remember which manager it was). I was just saying one could maybe make that argument in response to Babypowder's comment RE: O's All Stars, "And a couple of them even deserved it... not sure why it matters though." Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and JJ Hardy definitely deserved their spots and I would say Tillman did as well, but he's the only one that could be argued really was all. To summarize/clarify, I think the O's had very deserving AS representatives and I think that supports arguments against us being "the laughingstock of the MLB."

There are definitely arguments that neither Jones nor Hardy were the best players at their position and should not have started the game, though they both should have been on the team. Tillman being on the team was silly. He definitely shouldn't have been there over Kuroda and a laundry list of other guys. I guess he's really the only one who didn't deserve to be on the team. My point was more that All-Star doesn't necessarily mean great player and a team can be a laughing stock with a few good players on it anyway.

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There are definitely arguments that neither Jones nor Hardy were the best players at their position and should not have started the game, though they both should have been on the team. Tillman being on the team was silly. He definitely shouldn't have been there over Kuroda and a laundry list of other guys. I guess he's really the only one who didn't deserve to be on the team. My point was more that All-Star doesn't necessarily mean great player and a team can be a laughing stock with a few good players on it anyway.

Opinions vary. :noidea:

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I get all that. You do realize that the whole point of the off-season is to NOT go into a season fancying yourself a competitor with Jake Arrieta (who had proven nothing) in your rotation. It also is an opportunity to not have to trade what little talent you have acquiring talent that could have been acquired in the off-season.

Hey if you think this team is making the right moves .... its cool. I sometimes think some people on here suffer from Stockholm Syndrome if they believe what we are doing is the right way to do it if winning matters. To each their own I guess. I think DD is doing what he can with what he has but as a fan I expect a team to do its best to provide me a customer who is willing to spend a competitive product. Sorry if I refuse to blindly believe that this off-season has been positive in any way.

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Why? They made the Playoffs in 2012 when Arrietta was the Opening Day starter. They were counting on Arrietta to be the fourth or fifth starter last year and he obviously faltered. When he faltered in 2012, DD acquired Joe Saunders. In 2013, DD acquired Feldman, once he faltered. I don;t really see the issue. They wanted to give Arrietta another shot and it did not work out.

What's with this Stockholm Syndrome stuff? maybe the fans who are not questioning the FO have the recnt record of success in their minds. The past two off seasons have produced two competitive clubs, including a playoff appearance. The acquisitions have been far from sexy, but I have no problem with the departures of Feldman and McClouth. To kepp those guys would have been an overpay. Looking at the OP's article, you have to be careful how much you pay your "scrubs". DD has at least done a good job of that this winter.

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Why? They made the Playoffs in 2012 when Arrietta was the Opening Day starter. They were counting on Arrietta to be the fourth or fifth starter last year and he obviously faltered. When he faltered in 2012, DD acquired Joe Saunders. In 2013, DD acquired Feldman, once he faltered. I don;t really see the issue. They wanted to give Arrietta another shot and it did not work out.

What's with this Stockholm Syndrome stuff? maybe the fans who are not questioning the FO have the recnt record of success in their minds. The past two off seasons have produced two competitive clubs, including a playoff appearance. The acquisitions have been far from sexy, but I have no problem with the departures of Feldman and McClouth. To kepp those guys would have been an overpay. Looking at the OP's article, you have to be careful how much you pay your "scrubs". DD has at least done a good job of that this winter.

What Russ Snyder said. NONE of us like Peter Angelos. To accuse a whole swath of posters of that is really pretty offensive!

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Hey if you think this team is making the right moves .... its cool. I sometimes think some people on here suffer from Stockholm Syndrome if they believe what we are doing is the right way to do it if winning matters. To each their own I guess. I think DD is doing what he can with what he has but as a fan I expect a team to do its best to provide me a customer who is willing to spend a competitive product. Sorry if I refuse to blindly believe that this off-season has been positive in any way.

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Yeah. I'm with you. We should have more accomplished.

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Yeah. I'm with you. We should have more accomplished.

I apologize the Stockholm Syndrome comment if it offended some but there are times I feel we defend the team and defend its lack of moves when it should not be. I do love this team and want to see it successful like everyone else

I think 2yrs ago was a success with an exclamation mark. Last year to me was a missed opportunity. This year is starting to have that same feel. I think all of us deserve better. I get DD is doing what he can with what he has to work with. I just hate the fact he is playing with half a deck

Again my apologies

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I apologize the Stockholm Syndrome comment if it offended some but there are times I feel we defend the team and defend its lack of moves when it should not be. I do love this team and want to see it successful like everyone else

I think 2yrs ago was a success with an exclamation mark. Last year to me was a missed opportunity. This year is starting to have that same feel. I think all of us deserve better. I get DD is doing what he can with what he has to work with. I just hate the fact he is playing with half a deck

Again my apologies

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I was simple offering proof that we had "Gone For It" when we were close. The results were just poor. There are plenty of smart folks here that would have preferred us to have sat on our hands. For good reasons. Not as a result of any syndrome. They just do not feel trading controllable resources for establish players ever really works out that well.

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