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Buck Speaks his Mind


weams

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Exactly. The issue is not that we need a "proven closer". A good setup man, or a minor leaguer with great stuff, is often just as good a choice and can save money.

The issue is that we don't currently have a good internal option. There is no 100 MPH fireballer sitting at AAA waiting to explode on the league. Hunter, Matusz and O'Day all are good matchup pitchers, but they all have serious platoon issues that in my opinion would make them ineffective as closers. O'Day had decent platoon splits in 2012, but usually pitchers with extreme sidearm deliveries are prone to platoon problems, and I think lefties caught on to his unusual pitch sequencing and trajectory in 2013.

Wasn't just 2012, he has had decent splits his entire MLB career prior to last season.

If 2012 was the outlier instead of 2013 I would be more concerned.

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Exactly. The issue is not that we need a "proven closer". A good setup man, or a minor leaguer with great stuff, is often just as good a choice and can save money.

The issue is that we don't currently have a good internal option. There is no 100 MPH fireballer sitting at AAA waiting to explode on the league. Hunter, Matusz and O'Day all are good matchup pitchers, but they all have serious platoon issues that in my opinion would make them ineffective as closers. O'Day had decent platoon splits in 2012, but usually pitchers with extreme sidearm deliveries are prone to platoon problems, and I think lefties caught on to his unusual pitch sequencing and trajectory in 2013.

Dennis Eckersley says hi.

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At least Buck is consistent. Although I do believe that if this was off the record commenting and truly candid he would have expressed frustration with the lack of overall development of starting pitching while he's been here.

You can't tell me that when he took over in 2010 that he'd imagine the rotation looking this unproven in 2014.

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Yeah, Dan Quisenberry with 5 30+ save seasons and a .718 OPS against LH hitters. 598 against RHP's but he did okay.

Eck had similar splits .599 against Rh hitters but a little worse against LH hitters at .753. Those are career splits for both. They both did okay.

Darren O'Day career splits. .559 against RH's and .734 against LH's

Can of Corn provided a good article (fangraphs article maybe) about O'Days splits a while back. The gist of it was that O'Day got by pretty well against LHB's by pitching backwards to them and now the LHB's have caught on to his patterns. The LHB splits were pretty grim last year as compared to his career track record. I guess there are always adjustments to be made though.

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I could not disagree more with those who say Buck is only towing the company line. I think he did his job and did it well. I also think when he is asked his opinion by DD, or even PA he gives it. And I would guess he does so fairly bluntly. I have no doubt he fully understands the areas of opportunity for this team.

I think every word of what he says is spot on for a smart manager to say and it is at the same time without question a glass is totally full of optimism. However, I think really the only thing he said that bears repeating here it this:

"This isn't about being competitive, this is about winning"

Whether you like or agree with anything else he said, the rest of what he says doesn't really matter here, because he is not really talking to us fans, when he talks to the press, he is speaking to the 55 players in house for spring training. He is such a pro, he is not a savior, but we are damn lucky to have him.

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Yeah, Dan Quisenberry with 5 30+ save seasons and a .718 OPS against LH hitters. 598 against RHP's but he did okay.

Eck had similar splits .599 against Rh hitters but a little worse against LH hitters at .753. Those are career splits for both. They both did okay.

Darren O'Day career splits. .559 against RH's and .734 against LH's

Darren O'Day against lefties in 2013: .922 OPS.

Tommy Hunter: .857 OPS.

Sure, maybe they can improve against lefties in 2014. But do you really want to count on it? What if this is what they are?

Show me a successful closer that had a career OPS over .850 against lefties and maybe I'd feel better about the O's internal options.

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O'Day wasn't a closer last year, but was he unsuccessful as a setup man? How often was he used as just a matchup guy? Not very often. If O'Day came in to start the 7th or 8th inning, I'd bet he finished the inning the great majority of the time. Isn't the bottom line that he had a total .617 OPS against? Posters keep suggesting that managers won't play matchup against O'Day unless it's the 9th inning. I don't buy that line of thinking. He usually pitched the 7th or 8th last year. Managers are going to match up in those innings if they can. Bottom line, that was his worst OPS against LH hitters in his career. He's been in the league for 5 years. Do I think all lefthanded hitters in the league discovered his pitch sequence last year, that it took them 4 years to figure him out? No.

If you pinch hit a lefty against O'Day in the 7th or 8th inning, Buck will counter with Matusz. Opposing managers know this and so they weigh which matchup they'd rather have.

If you pinch hit a lefty against O'Day in the 9th inning, Buck probably won't be able to counter with Matusz, because he'll have been used in the 7th or 8th. Even if Matusz is available, it would take a highly unconventional manager to remove his closer routinely for platoon reasons.

I think O'Day will face more lefty hitters if he's a closer than if he's in the 7th or 8th.

Overall, both Hunter and O'Day were good relievers last season despite their platoon issues. But I have a sense that it's rare for a successful closer to have such extreme platoon issues. Again, maybe someone can prove me wrong--maybe there have been successful closers who compensate for being poor against lefties by completely shutting down righties (like Hunter did last season).

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I have this odd feeling about Ryan Webb. He has 74 career games finished and 0 saves. His GB/FB% is 1.35 career. With a GO/FO% of 1.99. With one of the best defenses in baseball I bet Buck will give him a look.

FYI

Darren O'Day has a GB/FB% of 0.70 and a GO/FO% of 0.88 career.

I think Buck might lean more towards a guy who gets more ground balls. But that is just my opinion.

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