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Which dominant pitcher are the Orioles going to acquire?


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Tillman has a whopping one full year in the rotation... If he regresses or has injury it's going to get really really ugly

Much more likely that the O's lose > 95 than win > 85

If they won't spend on FA pitchers and they won't than the only reasonable plan is to trade Hardy, and Wieters and re-load for 2015 to build around Bundy, Gausman, Machado, and Davis hopefully if they overwhelm him and get him to extend.

LOL! There's being negative, which is you or any one else's perogative. If that's how you see the team or if that's your mindset, that's fine. But the bolded is just trollishly negative! How in the world do you see the O's losing 18 more games than last year???

Even if you expect 0 WAR from every single player we've brought in... JJ is like 3 WAR lost (I don't know where to get the exact numbers... I'm guesstimating...)

JJ 3 WAR

Nate maybe 1.5 WAR

Hammel 0 WAR?

Valencia 2 WAR (good luck repeating that...)

Feldman generous 3 WAR if we had him all year

If Tillman tanks, as you surmise, then maybe 3 more WAR lost

That's maybe 12 WAR. And again, that's assuming 0 WAR for EVERY SINGLE DEAL THAT DD SIGNED.

Exactly how is ALL that going to happen PLUS lose 6 more games on top of all that?

Trollishly negative.

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Orioles baseball operations chief Dan Duquette acknowledges that the pressure is on to add a free agent with Spring Training on the horizon, according to Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun, but warns that the club aims to build from within. "If people have the expectation that we're going to sign a lot of high-profile free agents and that's going to be the answer, that is not who the Orioles are about," Duquette cautioned. Schmuck feels, however, that the O's are likely to sign "at least one" of the remaining veteran free-agent starters. Here's more Orioles notes, as the club wraps up its FanFest:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/orioles-notes-davis.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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Orioles baseball operations chief Dan Duquette acknowledges that the pressure is on to add a free agent with Spring Training on the horizon, according to Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun, but warns that the club aims to build from within. "If people have the expectation that we're going to sign a lot of high-profile free agents and that's going to be the answer, that is not who the Orioles are about," Duquette cautioned. Schmuck feels, however, that the O's are likely to sign "at least one" of the remaining veteran free-agent starters. Here's more Orioles notes, as the club wraps up its FanFest:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/orioles-notes-davis.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The Showalter quote seemed a little odd. I can't tell if he was making a generalization or talking about Burnett specifically.

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The Showalter quote seemed a little odd. I can't tell if he was making a generalization or talking about Burnett specifically.

Yeah, I get the whole, "We like our guys," thing but why make a statement like that? Especially when Dan has already said he's put feelers to Burnett's people specifically. Odd to say the least. Can Buck be all that confident in another starter competition like the one we had going into last ST? Hopefully Matusz turns out better than Arrieta did if that's the case or maybe he's planning on KG to start the season in the rotation. Britton or Aceves? Steve Johnson? Yeah, who needs Burnett?

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The Showalter quote seemed a little odd. I can't tell if he was making a generalization or talking about Burnett specifically.
Yeah, I get the whole, "We like our guys," thing but why make a statement like that? Especially when Dan has already said he's put feelers to Burnett's people specifically. Odd to say the least. Can Buck be all that confident in another starter competition like the one we had going into last ST? Hopefully Matusz turns out better than Arrieta did if that's the case or maybe he's planning on KG to start the season in the rotation. Britton or Aceves? Steve Johnson? Yeah, who needs Burnett?

Showalter was making a generalization. He was basically saying that the O's don't need to add a veteran SP just for the sake of adding one-- they need to make sure it's the right fit.

Here's the full quote:

"I don't think it has to happen. If it does, it does. It depends on who that is. Just because a guy's played X number of years doesn't make him a good presence to have around your people. It's more than that. I think the biggest prerequisite for this guy [is being] able to pitch well. The rest of it takes care of itself. So I don't think it's something that we can't survive without. ... But if it's the right guy it would make it easier. But I haven't dwelled on it much. I know what's out there, just like you do."

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Showalter was making a generalization. He was basically saying that the O's don't need to add a veteran SP just for the sake of adding one-- they need to make sure it's the right fit.

Here's the full quote:

"I don't think it has to happen. If it does, it does. It depends on who that is. Just because a guy's played X number of years doesn't make him a good presence to have around your people. It's more than that. I think the biggest prerequisite for this guy [is being] able to pitch well. The rest of it takes care of itself. So I don't think it's something that we can't survive without. ... But if it's the right guy it would make it easier. But I haven't dwelled on it much. I know what's out there, just like you do."

Thanks and good post.

I agree, Buck is really strong on a clubhouse that gets along well and I think DD understands that too.

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Thanks and good post.

I agree, Buck is really strong on a clubhouse that gets along well and I think DD understands that too.

They understand that it is yet another excuse they can use if they don't sign anyone. They know the mandate, what rules they are operating under, and speak VERY carefully to cover their bases when ownership has their hands tied behind their back.

You wanna know the "fit" we need? A proven pitcher with a track record who can pitch well. For a lot of innings a year. That is the only "fit" that needs to be in the clubhouse on the mound. A good pitcher, it isn't that complicated.

Where it can get complicated is when the price tag of said pitcher comes up in the top floor office in the warehouse. Baseball is a bunch of individual matchups and chemistry doesn't have a darn thing to do with Davis being about to drive a pitch over the outfield wall, or a pitcher being able to throw a 95 mph fastball painting the corner for strike 3.

Winning creates good chemistry, that is when everyone gets along and loves each other in the clubhouse. It isn't the other way around.

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They understand that it is yet another excuse they can use if they don't sign anyone. They know the mandate, what rules they are operating under, and speak VERY carefully to cover their bases when ownership has their hands tied behind their back.

You wanna know the "fit" we need? A proven pitcher with a track record who can pitch well. For a lot of innings a year. That is the only "fit" that needs to be in the clubhouse on the mound. A good pitcher, it isn't that complicated.

Where it can get complicated is when the price tag of said pitcher comes up in the top floor office in the warehouse. Baseball is a bunch of individual matchups and chemistry doesn't have a darn thing to do with Davis being about to drive a pitch over the outfield wall, or a pitcher being able to throw a 95 mph fastball painting the corner for strike 3.

Winning creates good chemistry, that is when everyone gets along and loves each other in the clubhouse. It isn't the other way around.

Wrong answer, winning doesn't solve everything and make things go away, but you are entitled to believe what you want.

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Wrong answer, winning doesn't solve everything and make things go away, but you are entitled to believe what you want.

Never said it "solves everything". I said winning breeds chemistry, and it seems aq couple of guys who have a few World Series between them agree....

"Winning creates chemistry more than the other way around," Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre says. "I've seen clubs that don't necessarily like each other, but they respected each other once they got on the field, and that's more important than being happy to go out to dinner with each other."
"You're always going to have great chemistry when you win," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen says. "When you lose, I don't care how good of guys they are, they're going to hate each other and you're going to have a miserable summer. I believe chemistry comes from leadership and respect. I believe that anywhere in life, any job, you're not going to have chemistry if you don't have success."

But what do they know?

One more from a player....

Dodgers pitcher Jason Schmidt brings up a good point. He played for the 2002 San Francisco Giants, who came within seven outs of winning the World Series despite the presence of Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent in the same clubhouse. That tempestuous relationship didn't hurt the club any, or at least not in any way that wasn't adequately compensated by their combined 73 home runs and 437 runs produced. That was in large part because everyone else got along pretty well, and even Bonds and Kent didn't get in each other's way very often anyway.

Even sworn enemies can get along when the team is winning.

As Schmidt points out, many guys play on a team.

"I would love to come into a clubhouse and want to have dinner with everyone on the team," Schmidt said. "But you can't do that because there are too many guys. You can't attract all the same personalities. There are just too many people for everyone to be great friends. And guys realize that.

"I've been on teams where there was one guy -- and it wasn't Barry -- who made everyone miserable. But you're not thinking about that when you're on the field. Not at all. It's a nonissue. I don't really see how it affects the team's play. Will you throw 95 instead of 90 because you're happier in the clubhouse? Will you throw strikes?"

So now who is wrong and who believes this myth about clubhouse chemistry affecting performance?

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Never said it "solves everything". I said winning breeds chemistry, and it seems aq couple of guys who have a few World Series between them agree....

But what do they know?

One more from a player....

So now who is wrong and who believes this myth about clubhouse chemistry affecting performance?

Two quotes isn't going to change my opinion sorry, I am sure if I did a little digging, I could show you quotes where it did, but, it won't change your opinion either.

We can agree to disagree.

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Actual #s in Bold (Fangraphs / BBRef)

JJ 3 WAR 0.9 / 1.5

Nate maybe 1.5 WAR 2.5 / 1.6

Hammel 0 WAR? 0.7 / 0.0

Valencia 2 WAR (good luck repeating that...) 0.9 / 0.7

Feldman generous 3 WAR if we had him all year 1.1 / 0.7

If Tillman tanks, as you surmise, then maybe 3 more WAR lost 2.0 / 4.4

You actually are overly generous to at least a few of these players.

I added actual WAR from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Not including other players no longer on the roster (Freddy Garcia, Jake Arrieta, Wilson Betemit, et al). You're looking at having to replace approximately 6.1 or 4.5 WAR from these guys.

I made another post listing pitchers we've lost and what they actually contributed, unfortunately the search feature for Hangout leaves a bit to be desired. The essence of it was that what we mostly got out of the 4th / 5th starters was 0 WAR.

I actually think Jim Johnson is basically replaced by Ryan Webb. I know people like "proven closers" or "clubhouse presence" etc etc etc. But lots of successful bullpen guys last year were not "proven" to begin the season. And lots of "proven" guys ended up without a job by the end of the season. I'm disappointed we didn't pursue Mujica, I think he would have been a significant stabilizing force for relatively little money.

For starting pitching, Arrieta had negative value that was essentially balanced back out by swapping Feldman in. Garcia had negative value, Hammel was replacement level. By definition these were starts that could be replaced by league average performances. Bud Norris in a full year as the 4th/5th starter will probably outperform Hammel last year.

From an offensive point of view, with Markakis' and Wieters' struggles last year there's still significant room for improvement even if Davis has a less superhuman performance in 2014.

I really don't understand the negativity on this board. I get why people want us to make big moves, but I'm just not impressed by this free agent class - and I think people really undervalue the importance of utilizing draft picks to keep the farm system healthy. The Orioles should not be sacrificing draft picks for marginal improvements from free agents. Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are not sure things, they're basically 2-3 WAR pitchers (AT BEST) and both have put up several < 1 WAR seasons in recent history. These are not guys we should be committing multi year deals to.

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After giving this waaaaaaaaay too much thought over what seems like eternity, I now think that if the Orioles are going to sign one of the top starters left on the FA market it will come down to Santana or Jimenez. I just don't see guys at the end of their careers, like Burnett and Arroyo, giving themselves a big learning curve by changing leagues. They know what they have to do to be successful in the NL, and as long as there are NL teams willing to pay them, they'll stay there. We may be considered finalists, but I think we're being played. I hope I'm wrong.

Either Santana or Jiimenez should be an improvement. I just don't like giving up the draft pick.

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After giving this waaaaaaaaay too much thought over what seems like eternity, I now think that if the Orioles are going to sign one of the top starters left on the FA market it will come down to Santana or Jimenez. I just don't see guys at the end of their careers, like Burnett and Arroyo, giving themselves a big learning curve by changing leagues. They know what they have to do to be successful in the NL, and as long as there are NL teams willing to pay them, they'll stay there. We may be considered finalists, but I think we're being played. I hope I'm wrong.

Either Santana or Jiimenez should be an improvement. I just don't like giving up the draft pick.

I don't either, but for good starting pitching, it is worth it. I like Santana MUCH more.

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