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Grade the off-season


atomic

grade the off season  

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  1. 1. grade the off season



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????? Tough crowd indeed!

"If one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River, the headline that afternoon would read: 'President Can't Swim.'" - Lyndon B. Johnson

Not trying to make any political comment, just summarizing how the front office probably feels :laughlol:

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I've moved it up from a low D to a solid C, bordering on C+. Here's how I see it:

Rotation upgraded

Bullpen downgraded

Offense neutral to slightly downgraded

Defense upgraded (Lough)

I care more about the rotation upgrade than the bullpen downgrade, which leans me towards a C+.

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"If one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River, the headline that afternoon would read: 'President Can't Swim.'" - Lyndon B. Johnson

Not trying to make any political comment, just summarizing how the Orioles front office probably feels. :laughlol:

We're not as tough a crowd here as the American press at-large was in the 1960's.

If Duquette walked on water, he would get an "A."

Swapping rosters with the St. Louis Cardinals would get the Orioles a B.

Duquette walking on water would get them an A.

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If you think signing Morales equals a 105M payroll you are dreaming. Last year's Opening Day payroll was $92.238 million per Cot's. That payroll included 30 players. A 20 percent increase on that number would be $110.68 million. Right now Cot's has the payroll at $79.9M for 16 players (This does not include Yoon or Jimenez). Those 16 players include Troy Patton, Steve Pearce, Francisco Peguero, and Dylan Bundy. Assuming that none of those three make the Opening Day roster, you are looking at a minimum of 29 players on the Opening Day payroll. Just so we are comparing apples to apples, I am going to assume for this exercise thay the number will actually be 30, either through Machado being on the DL to start the season or a player getting injured and replaced by a pre-arbitration player. This list does not include players in camp on minor league contracts. Adding in Yoon at $1.425 million (his 2014 salary plus signing bonus), Jimenez at $12 million and Morales at $10 million brings the total to $103.25 million and 19 players total.

Even if the 11 additional players were to all make $500k, the total would be $108.75. But they won't. Delmon Young is due to make $1 million if he makes the club, Aceves is due to make $1.2 million. If Aceves makes the club but Young doesn't (a likely scenario with Morales in the fold), that brings the total up to $109.45.

It is not realistic to expect the pre-arb players to make exactly the minimum. Last year the minimum was $490k. The only player that made $490k was TJ McFarland who had zero days of service time. The other 7 pre-arb players made between $493.5k and $516.5k. Since I don't expect any players with 0 days of service time to make the roster this year, I will assume that the 10 pre-arb players will again make an average of $15k over the minimum. The new minimum is $500k, so this step only adds $150k to the payroll bringing us to a total of $109.6. My instinct is that this number will actually be a bit higher because the 10 pre-arb players include Gonzalez, Machado, and Tillman who will probably receive more than token $10-15k over the minimum (Adam Jones received $65k more than the minimum in his last pre-arb year, Wieters $40k).

Regardless, that brings my final estimated payroll to $109.6 million if we were to sign Morales for $10 million. If they don't sign Morales, and Delmon Young takes his roster spot instead, my estimated 30-man payroll is $100.6 million.

$109.6 million would be an 18.8 percent increase over last season. If Morales signed for $11 million instead of $10 million, the payroll would hit my 20 percent estimate on the nose.

Just wanted to add in Cruz for my payroll estimate. At the time I wrote this post I was assuming that Jimenez was making $12 million. He is actually making $11.25 million with $2.25 million deferred. Operating on the assumption that Cruz takes Young's spot on the roster, the new estimated payroll is a little under $107 million if you count the deferred payment, and a little over $104.5 million if you don't.

Don't sleep on Jimenez's incentives, he gets $400k every year he makes 32 starts which he has done every year but one (31 starts in 2012) and another $400k if he reaches 200 innings pitched which is probably no worse than a 3-1 shot.

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New board rule... no "grade the offseason" poll allowed until March 1. :rofl:

Good rule.

Can we start a new thread now?

I'm curious what others think. I would say B+/A- at this point.

We can start a new thread (somebody just started one), but this one should stay open. Some people jumped the gun, others were teased for being optimistic before the Yoon, Jimenez, and Cruz signings, and so it would be an injustice if it were shut down.

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Good rule.

We can start a new thread (somebody just started one), but this one should stay open. Some people jumped the gun, others were teased for being optimistic before the Yoon, Jimenez, and Cruz signings, and so it would be an injustice if it were shut down.

I didn't vote earlier because it was too early and I would have given it a D- and would end up looking foolish in retrospect. Now I'm not going to vote because I'm pumped and probably would grade too high. At least March 1 and better around March 15.

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I didn't vote earlier because it was too early, and I would have given it a "D-", and would have ended up looking foolish in retrospect. Now, I'm not going to vote because I'm pumped, and probably would grade too high. At least wait until March 1st, and better yet, wait until March 15th.

I didn't vote either ....... and, I'm still not going to vote, because ........

(POSTED ON FEBRUARY 17th)

Also, as happy as I am about the Jimenez signing, I'm still going to refrain from voting.

I really cannot make up my mind, although I feel much better after the signings of both Yoon and Jimenez.

Anywhere from an A-Minus to a C-Plus. :confused:

I'm glad that Dan, Peter, and Bucky are running the show, and not me. :o

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Can we start a new thread now? I'm curious what others think. I would say B+/A- at this point.

Are you Pat White??? :)

I am super happy they spent $, not the players I would have taken but happy.

They still lost their closer and fumbled the replacement in a terrible fiasco. A is too high just for that reason alone.

B

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I didn't vote earlier because it was too early and I would have given it a D- and would end up looking foolish in retrospect. Now I'm not going to vote because I'm pumped and probably would grade too high. At least March 1 and better around March 15.

Yeah, there are still all the roster machinations and minor (but potentially) meaningful) trades still to come. Heck, the way this year has gone, Pete might even pull out his bag of special marbles.

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