Ervin Santana now seeking a one-year deal (Braves close to a deal)

[scOtt]

I think the difference is probably something like the difference between a 3/4 starter and a 4/5 starter. Plus the money would be better invested on a Hardy extension, IMO.

EXACTLY! A marginal upgrade at best. I'd rather stand pat with Norris locked up team controlled till 2015.

[mdbdotcom]

Perfect timing. KC announces that Luke Hochevar will be out for the season with TJS and Santana starts looking for a one-year deal. If he doesn't return to KC for 2014, there is something wrong with the universe.

[fearthenoodle]

Perfect timing. KC announces that Luke Hochevar will be out for the season with TJS and Santana starts looking for a one-year deal. If he doesn't return to KC for 2014, there is something wrong with the universe.

KC has said it has no interest in Santana, even on a 1-year deal. They have young guys like Ventura who could take that 5th starter spot, and for them, the comp pick is far more valuable than another year of Santana.

[fearthenoodle]

The Forgotten Free Agent

Santana throws four pitches, a fourseam fastball (coming in at roughly 93 mph), a sinker (93 mph), a slider (84 mph), and finally a change up (87 mph). Over his career Santana was basically a two-pitch pitcher who had seen sporadic success as a starter. For his career Santana threw his fastball 53.19% of the time, and his slider 36.61% of the time. His sinker and change up come in at just over 5% each.

Last season however, Santana mixed his pitches better, throwing sinkers more than ever. In fact, the 727 sinkers he threw last year are roughly 68% of the sinkers he's thrown over his entire career. This proved to be an effective strategy as opposing hitters posted a triple slash line of .242/.282*/.326 against his sinker. Any team signing Santana would basically be hoping that he can continue to succeed based on his new pitch mix and approach.

----

The final thing that should look promising to Santana's new team is that his new approach seems to have minimized the platoon split issue that plagued him earlier in his career. For his career lefties had a wOBA of .336, more than .030 points higher than their right-handed counterparts (.305 wOBA). This past season however lefties and righties posted similar wOBAs of .296 and .291 respectively.

Part of this is because, while line drive rates have stayed roughly the same for his career, his ground ball rate jumped up and there was a corresponding decline in fly balls. For a guy who was home run prone for much of his career, this is a crucial development. For his career Santana had a GB/FB rate of 1.10 against lefties and 0.86 against righties. In 2013 however, those figures both rose to 1.45 GB/FB against lefties and 1.35 versus right-handed batters. Santana has his increased sinker usage to thank for this, as that pitch had a ground ball rate of over 57%!

It seems reasonable that Santana's new team can expect him to continue his ground ball tendencies, assuming he keep using his sinker. This is especially important against right-handed batters, as it gives him just enough of a different tool to compliment his fastball and slider. One could even argue that his performance has room for improvement if he mixed in an even greater percentage of sinkers. If Santana mixed in more sinkers, and maybe even matched his fastball usage, the results could be fantastic for whichever team ends up signing the oft-ignored pitcher.

[weams]

Are we in talks for him or is this just pure speculation? Either way.. get it done DD!

As Ervin is flailing about with representation at this point, I don't think any previous talks are now relevant.

[fearthenoodle]

EXACTLY! A marginal upgrade at best. I'd rather stand pat with Norris locked up team controlled till 2015.

I may be in the minority, but I'm not sure Norris would be anything close to a lock for this team next year unless he has an outstanding year.

[fearthenoodle]

As Ervin is flailing about with representation at this point, I don't think any previous talks are now relevant.

The Orioles make so much sense for Santana that I'm starting to think it WON'T happen.

Wants to play for contender- check

Wants to play in front of good defense- check

Wants to play for a team with a good offense- check

Orioles have previously expressed interest- check

Orioles don't have to give up 1st rounder- check

I could keep going.

[scOtt]

As Ervin is flailing about with representation at this point, I don't think any previous talks are now relevant.

You think/know he really is between agents? Like he's driving his own boat to get damn signed and play baseball?

[scOtt]

I may be in the minority, but I'm not sure Norris would be anything close to a lock for this team next year unless he has an outstanding year.

That's the beauty. He's locked up. We can pretty much control his fate.

[fearthenoodle]

You think/know he really is between agents? Like he's driving his own boat to get damn signed and play baseball?

Whether he is still with Proformance, with someone else, or on his own- the one thing that seems clear is that he wants to be signed soon and start playing.

[fearthenoodle]

That's the beauty. He's locked up. We can pretty much control his fate.

And signing Santana doesn't change that.

For 2015, you already have Jimenez-Tillman-Gonzalez-Chen ($4.75MM option) back. Plus Gausman, Bundy, E-Rod, Wright knocking on the door. And you probably have other holes to fill. Cutting Norris's salary from the payroll could be one of the easier decisions of the 2014-15 offseason.

[scOtt]

Whether he is still with Proformance, with someone else, or on his own- the one thing that seems clear is that he wants to be signed soon and start playing.

Agree.

[mdbdotcom]

KC has said it has no interest in Santana, even on a 1-year deal. They have young guys like Ventura who could take that 5th starter spot, and for them, the comp pick is far more valuable than another year of Santana.

Did they say that before or after losing Hochevar? Santana wouldn't be their 5th starter. Why would they lose a pick for re-signing him?

[scOtt]

And signing Santana doesn't change that.

For 2015, you already have Jimenez-Tillman-Gonzalez-Chen ($4.75MM option) back. Plus Gausman, Bundy, E-Rod, Wright knocking on the door. And you probably have other holes to fill. Cutting Norris's salary from the payroll could be one of the easier decisions of the 2014-15 offseason.

I guess I'm sentimental on MiGo and Chen. I just don't see Ervin as an upgrade. MO.

[fearthenoodle]

Did they say that before or after losing Hochevar? Santana wouldn't be their 5th starter. Why would they lose a pick for re-signing him?

They don't lose one of their picks. They would lose the pick that they could GAIN if he signed anywhere else. This is from yesterday afternoon. They knew about Hochevar last week.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Despite word Santana will take a 1-year deal, Moore says Royals "moving forward" w/out him. "The candidates for our rotation are in-house."</p>— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="

">March 8, 2014</a></blockquote>

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