Miguel Cabrera new deal gets him 30m a year

[El Gordo]

I agree it is possible.

I would not allocate that much payroll to someone who doesn't also have a defensive position.

Last time AI checked MCab was at 1B. I don't see why he can't stay there another 5 years at least. You'll end up paying maybe 5/100M for a DH. Considering what you are likely to make on the first 5 years that's not overpaying too much. Ortiz makes 16 M.

[Frobby]

MCab has 3 or so more years of prime production barring injury. I'd say he could produce half of the value of that contract over that time. If he can be worth 30 Million the next two years, he has to produce at a rate of about 16 M per for DET to break even. Doubt that happens but he could come close.

What you're missing here is that MCab was already under contract for the next two years, at a below market price ($22 mm/yr). Nothing he does in the next two years will help Detroit break even on his extension.

[Stotle]

Except that I changed my mind overnight about the merits of this deal. He's still a stud on a historic level, but I don't think he produces $250 mm in value at ages 33-40, even if you assume a good bit of salary inflation. He'd need to produce about 35-40 WAR in those 8 years for the deal to make sense. I just don't see it at those ages. If he hadn't already been under contract for the next two seasons at a pretty cheap price (considering his current levels of production, I might have felt differently.

Well that was silly of you!

I heard at the fields yesterday 8/248 as the "new money" (excluding vesting options). $31 MM/year.

Taking the $44 MM/2 years first, he'd have to produce around 6 WAR total over the next two years to cover that. If he does a little less than doubling it (say 12 WAR) it's around $40 MM in surplus. Lop that off of the "new money"...

After the surplus from the first two years you are left with $208 MM/8 years. He'll only need to produce around 26 WAR over those 8 years (likely a bit less since salaries will in all likelihood continue to rise) to cover that.

Certainly there's risk involved with any long term deal, but this doesn't seem all that crazy to me.

[Aristotelian]

What you're missing here is that MCab was already under contract for the next two years, at a below market price ($22 mm/yr). Nothing he does in the next two years will help Detroit break even on his extension.

Exactly. The question is not whether he is worth 10/$292 right now, it is whether he will be worth 8/$248 at Age 33. That is a much tougher proposition.

[El Gordo]

What you're missing here is that MCab was already under contract for the next two years, at a below market price ($22 mm/yr). Nothing he does in the next two years will help Detroit break even on his extension.

What do you mean nothing he does? His production was worth 45 M last season. If it is the same the next two that will be 90 M. He will be paid 60 M instead of 44M. They will still be getting a 30 M bargain.

[MrOrange82]

Well that was silly of you!

I heard at the fields yesterday 8/248 as the "new money" (excluding vesting options). $31 MM/year.

Taking the $44 MM/2 years first, he'd have to produce around 6 WAR total over the next two years to cover that. If he does a little less than doubling it (say 12 WAR) it's around $40 MM in surplus. Lop that off of the "new money"...

After the surplus from the first two years you are left with $208 MM/8 years. He'll only need to produce around 26 WAR over those 8 years (likely a bit less since salaries will in all likelihood continue to rise) to cover that.

Certainly there's risk involved with any long term deal, but this doesn't seem all that crazy to me.

IIRC, you sounded averse to a contract extension for Davis that would pay him less than $20 million per year through his age 35 season. I realize that Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game...if not the game's history...but why does an extension for $12 million more per year (than the 6/112 talked about for Davis) that also covers Cabrera's age 35-40 seasons sound reasonable to you, while the Davis extension seemed to be overly risky? Wouldn't surplus value likely come into play for at least a couple of Davis' extension years?

[Frobby]

Williams also didn't have the typical wear and tear on his body because he missed years at a time due to military service.

Yeh, I bet that military service sure was relaxing. No wear and tear on the body there.

[Frobby]

What do you mean nothing he does? His production was worth 45 M last season. If it is the same the next two that will be 90 M. He will be paid 60 M instead of 44M. They will still be getting a 30 M bargain.

They are still paying $16 mm more than they had to pay. He was under contract already. That $16 mm is essentially a signing bonus for the new 8 year contract.

[Aristotelian]

What do you mean nothing he does? His production was worth 45 M last season. If it is the same the next two that will be 90 M. He will be paid 60 M instead of 44M. They will still be getting a 30 M bargain.

Because he was already under contract through 2015. The extension does not kick in until 2016, his Age 33 season.

[El Gordo]

They are still paying $16 mm more than they had to pay. He was under contract already. That $16 mm is essentially a signing bonus for the new 8 year contract.

You really want to let him walk after two years? You've got to pay to play. Sure they'll lose something on the back end of the 8/242M deal, but not as much as many expect IMO, given how well Ortiz has done. Cabrera isn't just another good hitter and if Ortiz who isn't as good, can keep himself in shape to hit, so can Cabrera.

[Stotle]

IIRC, you sounded averse to a contract extension for Davis that would pay him less than $20 million per year through his age 35 season. I realize that Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game...if not the game's history...but why does an extension for $12 million more per year (than the 6/112 talked about for Davis) that also covers Cabrera's age 35-40 seasons sound reasonable to you, while the Davis extension seemed to be overly risky? Wouldn't surplus value likely come into play for at least a couple of Davis' extension years?

Track record and players profile (including position) tends to be pretty important to me when it comes to longer term contracts. Add to that the fact that I'm not confident Baltimore will up payroll to $125 MM+ and you get a long term commitment for a significant portion of payroll to a corner player without a long track record.

[Stotle]

They are still paying $16 mm more than they had to pay. He was under contract already. That $16 mm is essentially a signing bonus for the new 8 year contract.

Yup, that's the right way to look at it.

[tntoriole]

Track record and players profile (including position) tends to be pretty important to me when it comes to longer term contracts. Add to that the fact that I'm not confident Baltimore will up payroll to $125 MM+ and you get a long term commitment for a significant portion of payroll to a corner player without a long track record.

Detroit better get it now, cause their window is going to slam shut harder than the Phillies. In 2015 they will have 120 million guaranteed in only 7 guys (assuming they up their offer and retain Scherzer) and in 2016, that amount in only 5 guys. They will be pushing 200 million by 2015, even after offloading Fielder.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree it is possible.

I would not allocate that much payroll to someone who doesn't also have a defensive position.

24 LF/RF/DH/1B/3B with 50+ rWAR through age 30.

The rest of their careers:

Eight had 40+ rWAR

Nine had 20-40

Seven had 6-20 (including Pujols)

$300M is 45-60 wins depending on inflation. Aaron, Ruth, and Bonds are the only to clear 60. Add Musial, Williams, and Schmidt for 45+.

They're paying him for an entire HOF career starting at 31. Must be nice to know your heirs will take care of stuff when you're gone. Why can't Angelos think that way?

[El Gordo]

detroit better get it now, cause their window is going to slam shut harder than the phillies. or the orioles. In 2015 they will have 120 million guaranteed in only 7 guys (assuming they up their offer and retain scherzer) and in 2016, that amount in only 5 guys. They will be pushing 200 million by 2015, even after offloading fielder.

f. T. F. Y.