Miguel Cabrera new deal gets him 30m a year

[weams]

Well that was silly of you!

I heard at the fields yesterday 8/248 as the "new money" (excluding vesting options). $31 MM/year.

Taking the $44 MM/2 years first, he'd have to produce around 6 WAR total over the next two years to cover that. If he does a little less than doubling it (say 12 WAR) it's around $40 MM in surplus. Lop that off of the "new money"...

After the surplus from the first two years you are left with $208 MM/8 years. He'll only need to produce around 26 WAR over those 8 years (likely a bit less since salaries will in all likelihood continue to rise) to cover that.

Certainly there's risk involved with any long term deal, but this doesn't seem all that crazy to me.

I guess there is not too much risk.

[Hank Scorpio]

Frobby has the right analysis. No convincing reason to think this is anything but a solid deal for Detroit. He's a stud on an historic level.

How long before he's a DH?

[Stotle]

How long before he's a DH?

I guess that will depend on the Tigers' other options. He isn't getting paid for his glove at first base.

[tntoriole]

f. T. F. Y.

I still think our window may still be a bit further down the road because we have not yet developed the Verlander, Scherzer, but if Tillman, Gausman, Bundy develop to that level then we go. Detroit has been good for longer with their group of stars. The question with us is whether Potter will follow Detroit's example if we keep winning and spend 150-170 million to keep this core together for the next five or so years.

[MrOrange82]

Just for fun (?) I went through baseball-reference's list of the top career WAR-accumulators and totaled their WAR figures from age 35 onward. Obviously these numbers were collected by lots of different players in lots of different eras who had lots of different body types and played lots of different positions. I just thought it'd be interesting to have the numbers laid out somewhere because of the Ted Williams, etc., references that've appeared elsewhere in the thread.

I don't know what Cabrera's going to be worth for the last six years of his contract extension, and I don't know what he'd need to be worth to make the extension something other than an albatross. Regardless, here are some more numbers to throw into the historical discourse (the first number listed is the rWAR earned from age 35 onward, followed by the career total for each player):

Babe Ruth - 40.6 rWAR (163.0 career)

Barry Bonds - 62.2 rWAR (162.4 career)

Willie Mays - 35.8 WAR (156.2 career)

Ty Cobb - 31.6 rWAR (151.0 career)

Hank Aaron - 31.3 rWAR (142.6 career)

Tris Speaker - 29.6 rWAR (133.7 career)

Honus Wagner - 43.7 rWAR (131.0 career)

Stan Musial - 25.4 rWAR (128.1 career)

Rogers Hornsby - 7.0 rWAR (127.0 career)

Ted Williams - 38.2 rWAR (123.1 career)

Alex Rodriguez - 6.6 rWAR (116 career)

Rickey Henderson - 15.8 rWAR (110.6 career)

Mickey Mantle - 6.5 rWAR (109.7 career)

Mel Ott - 8.7 rWAR (107.8 career)

Nap Lajoie - 24.7 rWAR (107.4 career)

Frank Robinson - 14.4 rWAR (107.2 career)

Mike Schmidt - 18.6 rWAR (106.5 career)

Joe Morgan - 20.3 rWAR (100.3 career)

Jimmie Foxx - 0.3 rWAR (96.4 career)

Eddie Collins - 2.0 rWAR (96.4 career)

Carl Yastrzemski - 17.7 rWAR (96.1 career)

Cal Ripken Jr. - 11.0 rWAR (95.5 career)

Roberto Clemente - 17.5 rWAR (94.4 career)

Cap Anson - 41.5 rWAR (93.9 career)

Al Kaline - 10.4 rWAR (92.5 career)

Wade Boggs - 19.5 rWAR (91.1 career)

[El Gordo]

I still think our window may still be a bit further down the road because we have not yet developed the Verlander, Scherzer, but if Tillman, Gausman, Bundy develop to that level then we go. Detroit has been good for longer with their group of stars. The question with us is whether Potter will follow Detroit's example if we keep winning and spend 150-170 million to keep this core together for the next five or so years.

Forget Davis and Wieters. Maybe our widow will stay open if we can find replacements.

[Guest]

Trout extension expected to be worth between $140 million and $150 million for six years

[atomic]

Just for fun (?) I went through baseball-reference's list of the top career WAR-accumulators and totaled their WAR figures from age 35 onward. Obviously these numbers were collected by lots of different players in lots of different eras who had lots of different body types and played lots of different positions. I just thought it'd be interesting to have the numbers laid out somewhere because of the Ted Williams, etc., references that've appeared elsewhere in the thread.

I don't know what Cabrera's going to be worth for the last six years of his contract extension, and I don't know what he'd need to be worth to make the extension something other than an albatross. Regardless, here are some more numbers to throw into the historical discourse (the first number listed is the rWAR earned from age 35 onward, followed by the career total for each player):

Barry Bonds - 62.2 rWAR (162.4 career)

That is pretty incredible. So Cabrera gets on the Bond work-out regimen when he turns 35 the Tigers will make out well in the deal?

[MrOrange82]

That is pretty incredible. So Cabrera gets on the Bond work-out regimen when he turns 35 the Tigers will make out well in the deal?

Yup, looks that way. I do think it's interesting that (for example) if 5.0 rWAR per season is the baseline required for Cabrera's $30 million AAV to be "worth it," then he's is going to have to post one of the nine best post-34 year old production streaks in the history of the game (and that's if you include Cap Anson on the list) to make it happen.

He's been over 7.0 rWAR for the last three years. I'll be interested to see where he settles in after another three years.

[DrungoHazewood]

That is pretty incredible. So Cabrera gets on the Bond work-out regimen when he turns 35 the Tigers will make out well in the deal?

I think the Tigers think they've done well if they win a World Series before Ilitch dies. He can't take cash to heaven, somebody else can figure out the salary dumps.

[Stotle]

Yup, looks that way. I do think it's interesting that (for example) if 5.0 rWAR per season is the baseline required for Cabrera's $30 million AAV to be "worth it," then he's is going to have to post one of the nine best post-34 year old production streaks in the history of the game (and that's if you include Cap Anson on the list) to make it happen.

He's been over 7.0 rWAR for the last three years. I'll be interested to see where he settles in after another three years.

It will likely be closer to 4.0 rWAR the direction salaries are headed.

[tntoriole]

I think the Tigers think they've done well if they win a World Series before Ilitch dies. He can't take cash to heaven, somebody else can figure out the salary dumps.

Ilitch must not have crown princes in waiting.

[BhamBird]

Trout extension expected to be worth between $140 million and $150 million for six years

Trout left a TON of money on the table with this deal, especially since he signed it AFTER Cabrera's was announced. Regardless, how insane a deal will he get when he hits free agency at age 29?

[weams]

Trout left a TON of money on the table with this deal, especially since he signed it AFTER Cabrera's was announced. Regardless, how insane a deal will he get when he hits free agency at age 29?

I don't know. Will he still be good?

[DrungoHazewood]

Trout left a TON of money on the table with this deal, especially since he signed it AFTER Cabrera's was announced. Regardless, how insane a deal will he get when he hits free agency at age 29?

I don't think so. If he didn't sign any extension and just went year to year with renewals and eventually arb he probably wouldn't make more than $30M through 2017.

So with extension it's something like: 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24 = $145M guaranteed

Without it's: 5, 10, 15, X, X, X = roughly $30M guaranteed, plus whatever he gets in free agency.

His personal salary floor went from $0-$30 depending on performance, to $145M. He gave up whatever theoretical crazy salary he might have gotten in 2018-2020 for the guarantee of $145M through 2020. That's a good deal for all involved from my perspective.