Gonzo being offered as trade piece.

[Redskins Rick]

That's my point. Honestly, his numbers compare well, or are better than Ubaldo who we paid $50 million for. Everyone keeps saying the "peripherals" will catch up to him. How long do you have to pitch well before people give you credit for being a good pitcher? It's funny the Orioles find a great value who will be under team control for several years, and people want to run him out of town for an "established" pitcher.

Not everybody wants to run him out of town.

Many of us, appreciate him for being what he is, a solid #3 guy in the rotation, and dang lucky to have him.

Just because DD is talking to other teams and using Gonzo as part of the package, should imply that the team or the fans are unhappy.

This is a business, and you always want to improve your roster.

With that said, personally, I am not sold that Kennedy is an upgrade at this point.

[Frobby]

That's my point. Honestly, his numbers compare well, or are better than Ubaldo who we paid $50 million for. Everyone keeps saying the "peripherals" will catch up to him. How long do you have to pitch well before people give you credit for being a good pitcher? It's funny the Orioles find a great value who will be under team control for several years, and people want to run him out of town for an "established" pitcher.

I don't like to get too militant about these issues. We used to have basically these same arguments about Rodrigo Lopez and Jeremy Guthrie. Both had several years when they outpitched their peripherals, and some where they didn't, and eventually, we moved on. Right now, I think Gonzo is a pretty effective pitcher.

[Tony-OH]

I don't like to get too militant about these issues. We used to have basically these same arguments about Rodrigo Lopez and Jeremy Guthrie. Both had several years when they outpitched their peripherals, and some where they didn't, and eventually, we moved on. Right now, I think Gonzo is a pretty effective pitcher.

I agree Frobby. I'm not sure why Gonzalez is so thought of as expendable. Maybe it's because he came out of nowhere, but he's out pitching Tillman and we never hear of people wanting to trade or send Tillman to the bullpen.

[Redskins Rick]

I agree Frobby. I'm not sure why Gonzalez is so thought of as expendable. Maybe it's because he came out of nowhere, but he's out pitching Tillman and we never hear of people wanting to trade or send Tillman to the bullpen.

I know Seattle drafted Tillman, but, it feels like he came up through our MiL system and maybe that's why the fans are more in love with Chris?

[Aristotelian]

Gonzo is pitching great. He is a great guy to have as a 4th/5th starter or long man in the bullpen. Career 3.66 ERA in the AL East. He does look bad at times, but so do all of our guys. If the playoffs started today, it would really be a tossup between all five SPs (other than Ubaldo) to start game 1. If we do indeed move him, we better get something good in return. I can't imagine too many pitchers being clear upgrades other than Price, Lee, or Hamels.

[Frobby]

I know Seattle drafted Tillman, but, it feels like he came up through our MiL system and maybe that's why the fans are more in love with Chris?

I think it is three things:

1. He was developed in our system, and is the only member of the 2009 "cavalry" who became a successful starter for us.

2. He's still only 26 years old.

3. He has a greater tendency to get deep into games than our other starters, despite Gonzo's most recent run.

That said, when you look at their contributions to the team over the last three years, Tillman and Gonzo are pretty similar:

Gonzo 373 IP, 3.66 ERA (59 starts, 6 relief appearances)

Tillman 417 IP, 3.64 ERA (69 starts)

[srock]

Ian Kennedy is a better pitcher than Gonzalez and this year he's in an entirely different league.

2014(Ian)

FIP:2.98

xFIP: 3.24

K/9: 9.53

BB/9:2.57

fWAR: 2.3

2014(Miguel)

FIP:5.25

xFIP:4.60

K/9: 6.98

BB/9:3.24

fWAR:0.2

2012-2014(Ian)

FIP:3.97

xFIP:3.93

K/9:8.45

BB/9:2.86

IP:519.0

2012-2014(Miguel)

FIP:4.62

xFIP:4.47

K/9:6.55

BB/9:2.95

IP:365.67

In 2014, among all pitchers who have thrown 80+ innings, Miguel's 5.25FIP is the 3rd worst in baseball while his xFIP has been 8th worst.Ian Kennedy's 2.98FIP is 16th best in baseball with his 3.24xFIP being 21st.

BBREF standard pitching for both of them in a cleaner table. Except xFIP.

I look at that FIP number for Kennedy this year and think 2014 is screaming anomaly. Then again his full career FIP is good also so maybe 2012-2013 are the anomaly? If he can keep this FIP where it is he would be fantastic with the Orioles defense behind him.

He would be a great upgrade this year but its hard to part with prospects for a guy that is basically very similar to Gonzalez career wise and is getting paid way more.

ERA+ actually favors Gonzalez!

I'm torn on this one, Kennedy is good, but is he enough of an upgrade? Depends on what we give up.

Gonzalez 2012-2014

<PRE>

Year Age Tm Lg ERA IP ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2012 28 BAL AL 3.25 105.1 130 4.38 1.206 7.9 1.1 3.0 6.6 2.20

2013 29 BAL AL 3.78 171.1 108 4.45 1.226 8.2 1.3 2.8 6.3 2.26

2014 30 BAL AL 3.91 96.2 101 5.23 1.407 9.3 1.6 3.4 6.9 2.06

3 Yrs 3.66 373.1 111 4.63 1.267 8.4 1.3 3.0 6.5 2.19

162 Game Avg. 3.66 205 111 4.63 1.267 8.4 1.3 3.0 6.5 2.19

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzami03.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#pitching_standard">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 7/23/2014.

Kennedy 2012-2014 (The average line is 8 years, bbref doesn't recalculate)

<PRE>

Year Age Tm Lg ERA IP ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2012 27 ARI NL 4.02 208.1 101 4.04 1.301 9.3 1.2 2.4 8.1 3.40

2013 28 TOT NL 4.91 181.1 76 4.59 1.395 8.9 1.3 3.6 8.1 2.23

2014 29 SDP NL 3.62 129.1 95 2.98 1.214 8.4 0.7 2.6 9.5 3.70

8 Yrs 3.95 994.2 100 3.93 1.262 8.4 1.0 3.0 8.1 2.74

162 Game Avg. 3.95 207 100 3.93 1.262 8.4 1.0 3.0 8.1 2.74

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kenneia01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#pitching_standard">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 7/23/2014.

[Richmond Bird 9]

How about he is cheap (contract) and he is controllable.

[backwardsk]

I think it is three things:

1. He was developed in our system, and is the only member of the 2009 "cavalry" who became a successful starter for us.

2. He's still only 26 years old.

3. He has a greater tendency to get deep into games than our other starters, despite Gonzo's most recent run.

That said, when you look at their contributions to the team over the last three years, Tillman and Gonzo are pretty similar:

Gonzo 373 IP, 3.66 ERA (59 starts, 6 relief appearances)

Tillman 417 IP, 3.64 ERA (69 starts)

For me at least, number three was the big thing. Gonzalez had a lot of difficulty in his three starts coming off the DL, after Gausman had a good stretch and the 6 man rotation presented itself.

This is a great problem to have. You love to see players force difficult decisions on their managers by playing well.

I'm not sure what I do when Jimenez gets back. I wouldn't rush him, but what if he turns the corner and pitches like the guy from last year's second half? Then what?

[clapdiddy]

Listen, Ive been critical of Gonzo earlier this year and when he was scuffling, but he's about our best pitcher in the last month. Theres no way they will trade him now, nor should they do that or send him to the pen. They know that, and we know that. He is still a 100 pitch pitcher and shouldn't be pushed to go much deeper(as evidenced by last night), but he's been terrific. I always liked Miguel,because of his makeup and demeanor. His story is so inspiring and uplifting, and he never quit on himself when others may have. He grew up less than 10 minutes from my home and never forgets his friends and fans from that area. I hope he keeps it up. That was a hell of a performance last night.

Agree with this post 100%. If Miggy is considered our 4th starter, we are in pretty good shape!

I really don't know what we'll do when Ubaldo is ready to pitch. It's a nice problem to have.

[Frobby]

I really don't know what we'll do when Ubaldo is ready to pitch. It's a nice problem to have.

I don't worry much about this. It appears Ubaldo won't be ready to start a big league game until at least a week from now, and maybe longer. Once he's back, we only have two off-days through September 10. Buck may very well want to throw a 6th starter out there a few times to lighten everyone's load. Or, someone could get hurt or need to skip a turn. I'd rather have six available starters than five.

[birdcrazy]

Here is the best way I think to look at this...

If you plan on winning this year, you do not trade Gonzalez because getting a better pitcher in return will either be unlikely, or not worth the added salary.

Only way I trade Miguel would be if the team is out of contention, and we have no intention of resigning upcoming free agents. Then I trade him for prospects in the hopes of being in contention again in 3-4 years.

[Ruzious]

People often overvalue our guys, not only because of homerism but because they're pitching infront of the best defense in baseball. If you throw these guys onto a team with an average defense they're likely not going to be anywhere near the same guy, Miguel included. But if we get a pitcher like Kennedy who has already proven to be good with mediocre defenses, then thats a no brainer.

I agree with your first thought, but after that... not at all. Gonzales is the poster child for underrated and - quite frankly - under-appreciated players. He's effective while being quiet, the picture of professionalism, uncontroversial, and relatively low paid, so people take him for granted. And lately he's been showing he can do the one thing people rightfully questioned - eat innings.

And pitching for the O's does not make pitchers' stats better than they would be on an average team. The O's defense is good, but the range of the individual players is mostly average this season, and they're playing this season with musical catchers.

I think he's got a lot more trade value than some more prominent O's that fans would hate to see go.

[twinedenter]

The other part to this equation is that Gonzo would be an excellent long man IF a TOR guy was acquired.

I agree with most of you that the pitchers we are hearing about, are only a slight upgrade if at all, to Gonzo.

[Redskins Rick]

The other part to this equation is that Gonzo would be an excellent long man IF a TOR guy was acquired.

I agree with most of you that the pitchers we are hearing about, are only a slight upgrade if at all, to Gonzo.

Last time I checked, the market availability of TOR was extremely short and too high price (no pun intended) to be realistic.