Disagreeing With The Smartest Man In The Room

[CA-ORIOLE]

I don't think Billy values prospects like you and I do. If there is a free Jonny Gomes to be had.

I think you're spot on here. I don't think he values them as much as we might think he does. The other day they had the A's assistant GM was on MLB Radio and was basically stating how a lot of their players, especially their position players, are former undervalued ML players from other organizations and not developed or even acquired prospects. He said the used data mining to identify these players and the stat people gave them to the scouts to fully evaluate them. He mentioned Moss, Lowrie, Donaldson and Jaso etc. but there are a lot more of you go through their roster the past few years. Even Coco Crisp was a pretty undervalued free agent.

[Can_of_corn]

Ask Stotle or Tony how much attention they pay to defensive metrics.

You said "watch". I think they pay attention to their in house version of defensive metrics. Just look at the shifting.

[Il BuonO]

I think you're spot on here. I don't think he values them as much as we might think he does. The other day they had the A's assistant GM was on MLB Radio and was basically stating how a lot of their players, especially their position players, are former undervalued ML players from other organizations and not developed or even acquired prospects. He said the used data mining to identify these players and the stat people gave them to the scouts to fully evaluate them. He mentioned Moss, Lowrie, Donaldson and Jaso etc. but there are a lot more of you go through their roster the past few years. Even Coco Crisp was a pretty undervalued free agent.

Yes, the fact is Moneyball was about finding value where others couldn't. Whether or not he's got it right this year he has staked out a path.

And people may be forgetting that Cespedes was not going to be re-signed by the A's long term and his current contract precluded them from making him a QO after 2015. His future value was more limited than you might imagine. So, if he really believes this is his shot then he's making a bold move.

After watching struggle to score any runs vs Guthrie last night, though, he had better hope that Reddick or someone of the guys that were undervalued by other teams are able to step for the production he's losing with Cespedes. I looked at them and thought, "These guys have all been playing over their heads," not "Oh, these guys are undervalued."

However, if I look at what he's done and the way he's done it I do it the same way. The pitching he's assembled is perfect to make a run in the playoffs.

[weams]

You said "watch". I think they pay attention to their in house version of defensive metrics. Just look at the shifting.

Ok. I can see your point.

[weams]

After watching struggle to score any runs vs Guthrie last night, though, he had better hope that Reddick or someone of the guys that were undervalued by other teams are able to step for the production he's losing with Cespedes. I looked at them and thought, "These guys have all been playing over their heads," not "Oh, these guys are undervalued."

Billy knew they were definitely pitching over their heads. He's gonna freak at the first round exit again.

[weams]

HE hit a 3-2 breaking ball for a hit to left field in his first Boston at bat. Napoli then homered.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yes, the fact is Moneyball was about finding value where others couldn't. Whether or not he's got it right this year he has staked out a path.

And people may be forgetting that Cespedes was not going to be re-signed by the A's long term and his current contract precluded them from making him a QO after 2015. His future value was more limited than you might imagine. So, if he really believes this is his shot then he's making a bold move.

After watching struggle to score any runs vs Guthrie last night, though, he had better hope that Reddick or someone of the guys that were undervalued by other teams are able to step for the production he's losing with Cespedes. I looked at them and thought, "These guys have all been playing over their heads," not "Oh, these guys are undervalued."

However, if I look at what he's done and the way he's done it I do it the same way. The pitching he's assembled is perfect to make a run in the playoffs.

Yeah, I think people mistakenly have gotten the impression that Beane is in the business of churning established players for prospects. That's not really the case. Obviously he has done some of that, probably more with pitchers. He has obviously been much more financially constrained in the past than this year also.

I totally get the multiple TOR leverage strategy, but I'm stlll pretty mixed if this Lester trade was smart or not (especially when I'm seeing Fuld and Gomes in the OF instead of Cespedes and Crisp), but I guess Vogt has been good for them recently.

We'll see how it goes for them I guess.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You said "watch". I think they pay attention to their in house version of defensive metrics. Just look at the shifting.

I've heard Dan mention UZR more than a few times now. I doubt AM even knew what it was. Like you said, I'm sure every team has more enhanced/propriety data other than what UZR/DRS provides to the public, but other than level of detail and the ability to act on the data with specific strategies, I doubt it's much different in most cases than what we see on the aggregate scale.

[weams]

I've heard Dan mention UZR more than a few times now. I doubt AM even knew what it wast was. Like you said, I'm sure every team has more enhanced data than what UZR/DRS publishes, but other than level of detail and the ability to act on the data with specific strategies, I doubt it's much different in most cases than what we see on the aggregate scale.

Dan bought the Orioles the full Bloomberg System.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Dan bought the Orioles the full Bloomberg System.

Doesn't surprise me a bit. We were doing Buck's "hug the line strategy" for shifts before DD came along. It's really amazing how far Duquette has brought this organization into the light imo.

[Il BuonO]

Doesn't surprise me a bit. We were doing Buck's "hug the line strategy" for shifts before DD came along. It's really amazing how far Duquette has brought this organization into the light imo.

Dan was playing Moneyball before Billy made it vogue.

[weams]

Dan was playing Moneyball before Billy made it vogue.

He was playing Moneyball with money.

[weams]

Doesn't surprise me a bit. We were doing Buck's "hug the line strategy" for shifts before DD came along. It's really amazing how far Duquette has brought this organization into the light imo.

And Brady. Brady is a big change agent.

[weams]

Doesn't surprise me a bit. We were doing Buck's "hug the line strategy" for shifts before DD came along. It's really amazing how far Duquette has brought this organization into the light imo.

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[weams]

Fuld's fantastic assist confirmed by replay http://atmlb.com/1xQNReQ