Buck: "We're going to grind the heck out of the Rule 5 draft."

[DrungoHazewood]

I think there is a market for him. The O's will hold his contract this year closer to 3M. They have a case in arbitration if they want to go to the hearing. At 3M that is not out of line for a 50 inning reliever.

I made a list of 37 left-handed relievers who averaged less than an inning per appearance and appeared in at least 50 games in 2014.

Their annual salaries ranged from $7M (Jeremy Affeldt) to 12 players who were making just a bit over $500k. The median salary was $1.38M, the average was $1.8M. Only six of the 37 made $3M or more in 2014.

If the O's retain Matusz in his current role for $3M or more, he'll be paid more than all but a half dozen or so LOOGY-ish pitchers in MLB. And that list included guys like Andrew Miller, and 24 other pitchers with a higher 2014 rWAR than Matusz.

There's no way I'd bring back Matusz in his current role for $3M. And I have no interest in expanding his role.

Edit: With the caveat that there's a lot of noise in 50-70 inning samples, on that list of lefty relievers Matusz was 20th in ERA+, 29th in FIP, 36th in HR allowed, 22nd in innings, 16th in K%, and 10th in BB/9. He was coming off a below-average year compared to his peers.

[weams]

I think there is a market for him. The O's will hold his contract this year closer to 3M. They have a case in arbitration if they want to go to the hearing. At 3M that is not out of line for a 50 inning reliever.

He has been worth .7 WAR for the last THREE years. At 3 to 5 million, there is NO excess value in that. Want to go back a year? Then he is - 1.6 WAR. You don't pay to see that monkey.

[wildcard]

Stats on all lefties don't help much. Britton and Mcfarland are lefty relievers but neither is likely to be traded or non tendered this off season.

Who is available?

Below are the 12 lefties reliever that MLBTR have listed as free agents.

2 are in the down side of their careers at 38-39 years old

6 pitched less than 50 innings.

7 have ERAs higher than Matusz

All are older than Matusz

4 earned more than Matusz in 2014

I would rank them:

1) Miller - projected at 8M per year

2) Duke - who is up for a substantial raise

3) then Matusz

It looks to me that there is a market for Matusz at around 3M.

Joe Beimel (38) - 850K, 2.20 ERA, 45 IP

Craig Breslow (34) - 3.8M, 5.96 ERA, 54 IP

Sean Burnett (32) - 3.7M, 13.50 ERA, .2 IP

Phil Coke (32) - 1.9M, 3.88 ERA, 58 IP

Neal Cotts (35) - 2.2M, 4.32 ERA. 66.2 IP

Scott Downs (39) - 3.75M, 4.97 ERA , 38 IP

Zach Duke (32) - 850K, 2.45 ERA, 58.2 IP

Tom Gorzelanny (32) - 2.95M, 0.86 ERA, 21 IP

Andrew Miller (30) - 1.9M, 2.02 ERA, 62.1 IP

Franklin Morales (29) - Started 22 games, 1.71M, 5.37 ERA, 142.1 IP

Josh Outman (30) - 1.25M, 2.86 ERA, 28.1 IP

Joe Thatcher (33) - 2.38M, 3.86 ERA, 30.1 IP

VS

Brian Matusz (28) - 2.4M, 3.48 ERA, 50.1 IP

[DrungoHazewood]

Stats on all lefties don't help much. Britton and Mcfarland are lefty relievers but neither is likely to be traded or non tendered this off season.

Who is available?

Below are the 12 lefties reliever that MLBTR have listed as free agents.

2 are in the down side of their careers at 38-39 years old

6 pitched less than 50 innings.

7 have ERAs higher than Matusz

All are older than Matusz

4 earned more than Matusz in 2014

I would rank them:

1) Miller - projected at 8M per year

2) Duke - who is up for a substantial raise

3) then Matusz

It looks to me that there is a market for Matusz at around 3M.

Joe Beimel (38) - 850K, 2.20 ERA, 45 IP

Craig Breslow (34) - 3.8M, 5.96 ERA, 54 IP

Sean Burnett (32) - 3.7M, 13.50 ERA, .2 IP

Phil Coke (32) - 1.9M, 3.88 ERA, 58 IP

Neal Cotts (35) - 2.2M, 4.32 ERA. 66.2 IP

Scott Downs (39) - 3.75M, 4.97 ERA , 38 IP

Zach Duke (32) - 850K, 2.45 ERA, 58.2 IP

Tom Gorzelanny (32) - 2.95M, 0.86 ERA, 21 IP

Andrew Miller (30) - 1.9M, 2.02 ERA, 62.1 IP

Franklin Morales (29) - Started 22 games, 1.71M, 5.37 ERA, 142.1 IP

Josh Outman (30) - 1.25M, 2.86 ERA, 28.1 IP

Joe Thatcher (33) - 2.38M, 3.86 ERA, 30.1 IP

VS

Brian Matusz (28) - 2.4M, 3.48 ERA, 50.1 IP

What you've overlooked is the several dozen lefty relievers and starters in the minors or on the fringes of MLB rosters who could perform similarly to Matusz for $500k. I would much rather keep the guy they they just got from the Tigers for free than tender Matusz a contract.

[wildcard]

What you've overlooked is the several dozen lefty relievers and starters in the minors or on the fringes of MLB rosters who could perform similarly to Matusz for $500k. I would much rather keep the guy they they just got from the Tigers for free than tender Matusz a contract.

Oh, good. The proposal is to go all out for the World Series by putting a rookie minor leaguer in the situational lefty role. Nothing like bases loaded, no body out and here comes the untested rookie to face some of the best lefthanded hitters in the game.

[Frobby]

At least Ryan shows up in the post season.

Yeah, I'd draw a lot of conclusions based on 12 games. Let's just call him Mr. October. If we make the playoffs again we should start Flaherty in CF and bench that choker Adam Jones.

I think Flash has proven well worthy of the Rule 5 pick. I agree with CoC that some exaggerate his defensive prowess at SS and 3B, but he's certainly a very solid backup at either spot and an above average defender at 2B. His flexibility around the infield allows Buck to use the rest of his non-catcher bench spots very productively. McFarland also has proven very useful.

[Frobby]

Oh, good. The proposal is to go all out for the World Series by putting a rookie minor leaguer in the situational lefty role. Nothing like bases loaded, no body out and here comes the untested rookie to face some of the best lefthanded hitters in the game.

I'm one of the bigger Brian Matusz fans on this board. Always liked him, wanted to see him get opportunities to resume his role as a starter, then wanted to see him succeed in the pen. But truthfully, he's not worth $3 mm based on his 2014 performance. He was excellent out of the pen in 2012 once moved to that role (Raul Ibanez notwithstanding), started off great in 2013 but began to falter as the season progressed, then had a terrible first half in 2014, and though he had good second half numbers, Buck really limited his role more than ever. The trend line ain't good, and if Dan decides to cut Matusz loose, I won't blame him.

[wildcard]

I'm one of the bigger Brian Matusz fans on this board. Always liked him, wanted to see him get opportunities to resume his role as a starter, then wanted to see him succeed in the pen. But truthfully, he's not worth $3 mm based on his 2014 performance. He was excellent out of the pen in 2012 once moved to that role (Raul Ibanez notwithstanding), started off great in 2013 but began to falter as the season progressed, then had a terrible first half in 2014, and though he had good second half numbers, Buck really limited his role more than ever. The trend line ain't good, and if Dan decides to cut Matusz loose, I won't blame him.

After looking at it a little closer, I agree. Matusz probably isn't worth 3m per year. He is a really good LOOGY. He gets lefties out at the good rate. He has done that in 2013 and 2014. Does that get him 3M? Probably not.

It would appear that lefties that get both lefties and righties out like probably get over 3m on the free agent market. If they are 30ish they may get a two year contract. But that is not where Matusz is. He doesn't get righties out and that will cost him.