Qualifying offers due by Monday at 5pm.

[Frobby]

Of course not but if you give Nick one he won't get 3/36. Pont being what Koji got has no bearing on Nick.

I no longer think I have any clue how the FA market works. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Nick gets 3/$39 mm even with a QO. Most of the comments on that site regarding the prediction were to the effect that the author was on crack. RZNJ thinks the best Nick does is 3/$24 mm, in which case you can't be crazy enough to give Nick a QO. Opinions seem to vary extremely widely.

I'll give you my opinion: some time between now and Monday, the Orioles will announce they have signed Nick to a three year deal valued at $33 mm, plus or minus $2 mm, and possibly with an option. The QO issue will never be known. But if for some reason I'm wrong and Nick is not signed by Monday, the O's won't risk placing a QO on him.

[AlbionHero]

I no longer think I have any clue how the FA market works. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Nick gets 3/$39 mm even with a QO. Most of the comments on that site regarding the prediction were to the effect that the author was on crack. RZNJ thinks the best Nick does is 3/$24 mm, in which case you can't be crazy enough to give Nick a QO. Opinions seem to vary extremely widely.

I'll give you my opinion: some time between now and Monday, the Orioles will announce they have signed Nick to a three year deal valued at $33 mm, plus or minus $2 mm, and possibly with an option. The QO issue will never be known. But if for some reason I'm wrong and Nick is not signed by Monday, the O's won't risk placing a QO on him.

Yeah, I can't see the O's QOing him. Thats too much of a risk since he'll be very likely to take it since he likes Baltimore and its a good chunk of money. I don't see his value getting any lower next year, so he can pretty much view it as getting 15 mil instead of 12 mil for a season. The maybe 20% chance he turns it down and we get a pick isn't worth it.

[weams]

Yeah, I can't see the O's QOing him. Thats too much of a risk since he'll be very likely to take it since he likes Baltimore and its a good chunk of money. I don't see his value getting any lower next year, so he can pretty much view it as getting 15 mil instead of 12 mil for a season. The maybe 20% chance he turns it down and we get a pick isn't worth it.

No one has ever accepted a QO. If Nick were to do so, we might lose as much as 7 million dollars in actual contract value. If we sign Nick for 3/36, the down side is maybe 20 million. I like the first gamble. Neither circumstance actually offers value upside.

[atomic]

Yeah, I can't see the O's QOing him. Thats too much of a risk since he'll be very likely to take it since he likes Baltimore and its a good chunk of money. I don't see his value getting any lower next year, so he can pretty much view it as getting 15 mil instead of 12 mil for a season. The maybe 20% chance he turns it down and we get a pick isn't worth it.

If we offered and he turned down a qualifying offer I dont see the team getting a pick. He would probably end up like Morales and Drew and sign after the All star break. No one is going to pay 15 million a year and a first round pick for Markakis.

[weams]

If we offered and he turned down a qualifying offer I dont see the team getting a pick. He would probably end up like Morales and Drew and sign after the All star break. No one is going to pay 15 million a year and a first round pick for Markakis.

I believe no player will sit out until June again. Unless they are injured. Or semi retired. Or avoiding PED testing.

[weams]

If we offered and he turned down a qualifying offer I dont see the team getting a pick. He would probably end up like Morales and Drew and sign after the All star break. No one is going to pay 15 million a year and a first round pick for Markakis.

The deal with Drew and Morales is that no one would play them 15 million at all. Boras suckered them. And the should have, could have, signed for eight and played all year and have been set for a good pay day.

[25 Nuggets]

No one has ever accepted a QO. If Nick were to do so, we might lose as much as 7 million dollars in actual contract value. If we sign Nick for 3/36, the down side is maybe 20 million. I like the first gamble. Neither circumstance actually offers value upside.

No one, ever? Man that is so silly. The agents must have a lot to do with that.

[wildcard]

I no longer think I have any clue how the FA market works. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Nick gets 3/$39 mm even with a QO. Most of the comments on that site regarding the prediction were to the effect that the author was on crack. RZNJ thinks the best Nick does is 3/$24 mm, in which case you can't be crazy enough to give Nick a QO. Opinions seem to vary extremely widely.

I'll give you my opinion: some time between now and Monday, the Orioles will announce they have signed Nick to a three year deal valued at $33 mm, plus or minus $2 mm, and possibly with an option. The QO issue will never be known. But if for some reason I'm wrong and Nick is not signed by Monday, the O's won't risk placing a QO on him.

This looks reasonable. Though I don't claim to know what will happen.

[Barnfather]

I need to find a website which explains exactly how all this stuff works I think, as I am completely confused

[wildcard]

I need to find a website which explains exactly how all this stuff works I think, as I am completely confused

This is probably the best site I know of. Pick your topic from Free Agency to Arbitration or the Rule 5 draft and it will explain it pretty well. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/transactions-glossary/

Plenty of posters here will answer any questions you have. I don't know if the smile face means you are kidding but there may be posters that have question.

[fearthenoodle]

I don't see his value getting any lower next year, so he can pretty much view it as getting 15 mil instead of 12 mil for a season.

I disagree with this completely. He would be another year older. What if his performance declines? What if he deals with an injury? What about there being 3 clearly better, younger corner OF that are not on the market this year but will be next year (Cespedes, Upton, Heyward)?

[fearthenoodle]

No one has ever accepted a QO. If Nick were to do so, we might lose as much as 7 million dollars in actual contract value. If we sign Nick for 3/36, the down side is maybe 20 million. I like the first gamble. Neither circumstance actually offers value upside.

Agreed with this post- the gamble is worth the risk. Make the QO.

[Frobby]

Let the Offseason begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Funny, my attitude is more like, "107 days until pitchers and catchers report."

So, how are you liking the offseason so far?

Even if you support what DD has done so far, this offseason has been painfully boring.

60 days until pitchers and catcher report.

[clapdiddy]

So, how are you liking the offseason so far?

Even if you support what DD has done so far, this offseason has been painfully boring.

60 days until pitchers and catcher report.

Music to my ears...errr....EYES!