What does Nick's departure say to the other players who we may want to retain?

[tntoriole]

I also doubt that DD is missing very many nights over Nick's departure, nor from fans squawking about it. According to Peter Schmuck of the Sun, DD is a man of few sentiments.

At first, I believed that DD's lack of a QO to Nick was a sign that a contract with Nick was imminent. Now I tend to believe that DD decided not to give Nick a QO because he was afraid that Nick would actually accept it, and DD didn't want to be stuck with Nick for at least another year under those terms.

And as well that when Nick didn't take the first Oriole long term deal offered to him by DD, that DD decided he would facilitate him leaving by not attaching the QO. I really think that DD not offering the QO was less out of fear that Nick would take it than the hope that by not having the saddle of the QO it would enable Nick to find another team to overpay somewhere else rather than the Os.

[Singleton]

If it wasn't all about the money before (and maybe it was), it certainly is now. It's every man for himself next winter when Wieters, Davis, Chen, Norris and O'Day all hit the market. And I'm not holding my breath expecting Manny Machado to sign here long term unless we break the bank to make that happen.

Something ended yesterday. That doesn't mean the Orioles can't continue to be a very good team, but things are going to be different.

I'm not following the logic. Players understand it is a business. The team made a business decision regarding NM. They didn't say terrible things about him. As long as we're competitive next year (and maybe even if we aren't), players will accept our money.

[tntoriole]

As it turns out, JJ was the only one of our free agents that we kept. You have to wonder what that means for the next batch of Wieters, Davis, Chen, Norris, O'Day.

An argument could be made that if the Orioles are not going to be able to resign their own free agents that they will not be able to replace the combined exodus of this winter and next winter just by the bargain replacement strategy and still remain competitive in 2016. It would seem that an argument could be made to blow up the team this winter in order to try to get the best return and to sacrifice 2015 for the longer term good. Trading Davis, Chen, Norris, O'Day, Wieters in the spring after he shows he is healthy. Or you could double down by extending Davis now and hope that he rebounds and extending Chen, Norris and O'Day this winter and then Jones and Machado next winter (a la Hardy). Wieters is leaving no matter what, imho.

[mdbdotcom]

As it turns out, JJ was the only one of our free agents that we kept. You have to wonder what that means for the next batch of Wieters, Davis, Chen, Norris, O'Day.

An argument could be made that if the Orioles are not going to be able to resign their own free agents that they will not be able to replace the combined exodus of this winter and next winter just by the bargain replacement strategy and still remain competitive in 2016. It would seem that an argument could be made to blow up the team this winter in order to try to get the best return and to sacrifice 2015 for the longer term good. Trading Davis, Chen, Norris, O'Day, Wieters in the spring after he shows he is healthy. Or you could double down by extending Davis now and hope that he rebounds and extending Chen, Norris and O'Day this winter and then Jones and Machado next winter (a la Hardy). Wieters is leaving no matter what, imho.

JJ did not become a free agent. Players who become free agents (on any team) rarely return to the team they were on. Once they take that magical step into the marketplace, their value rises beyond statistical relevance and is driven by the competing desires of teams to make a splash. Usually, only the players who aren't swooped up in the high dollar feeding frenzy end up being good deals for their new team.

[tntoriole]

JJ did not become a free agent. Players who become free agents (on any team) rarely return to the team they were on. Once they take that magical step into the marketplace, their value rises beyond statistical relevance and is driven by the competing desires of teams to make a splash. Usually, only the players who aren't swooped up in the high dollar feeding frenzy end up being good deals for their new team.

Yes, JJ did not become a free agent only because DD decided to extend him and made enough of an offer to get it done. Similar decisions remain for the batch of players mentioned. Do we extend any of them, let them all walk or trade any of them?

[mdbdotcom]

Yes, JJ did not become a free agent only because DD decided to extend him and made enough of an offer to get it done. Similar decisions remain for the batch of players mentioned. Do we extend any of them, let them all walk or trade any of them?

It wasn't just because DD decided to extend him, it was also because JJ wanted very much to stay. When DD first approached JJ's agent about extending, he didn't get anywhere. It's a two-way street. JJ didn't hold out for the highest dollar. Markakis did.

I don't see an extension in the cards for Davis or O'Day this winter. No one knows what to expect from Davis, and O'Day broke down at the end of 2014.

I'd like to see Wieters extend for one year. I think it would be good for him and the team. I don't know how anyone could calculate his value until he's one full season removed from his surgery.

Norris could be traded. I doubt they'd try to work out an extension with him unless they trade Bundy or Harvey.

Extending Chen is an interesting idea, but my guess is that Chen will be looking for a big pay day.

[tntoriole]

It wasn't just because DD decided to extend him, it was also because JJ wanted very much to stay. When DD first approached JJ's agent about extending, he didn't get anywhere. It's a two-way street. JJ didn't hold out for the highest dollar. Markakis did.

I don't see an extension in the cards for Davis or O'Day this winter. No one knows what to expect from Davis, and O'Day broke down at the end of 2014.

I'd like to see Wieters extend for one year. I think it would be good for him and the team. I don't know how anyone could calculate his value until he's one full season removed from his surgery.

Norris could be traded. I doubt they'd try to work out an extension with him unless they trade Bundy or Harvey.

Extending Chen is an interesting idea, but my guess is that Chen will be looking for a big pay day.

I tend to agree with most of what you say. O'Day and Norris may go by trade either now or during the season (depending on how we are doing of course). Davis is the big question mark obviously although taking a risk by signing now to a much lower cost extension could be a real coup if Davis bounces back. From his standpoint, his risk (and reason to consider an extension now) is that his free agent value will be markedly damaged if he has the 2014 Davis version come out in 2015.

It is a two way street, but I think DD was much more aggressive and truly wanted to get a deal done with JJ and that his stance with Nick was basically, here is our offer, go out and see if you can get a better one (and we won't even put a QO on you to hinder that and because we are worried you might actually be the first player to take it). I think DD valued JJ's production significantly higher than he did Nick's production and that his approach on that two way street was much more amenable to getting a deal done.

[mdbdotcom]

I tend to agree with most of what you say. O'Day and Norris may go by trade either now or during the season (depending on how we are doing of course). Davis is the big question mark obviously although taking a risk by signing now to a much lower cost extension could be a real coup if Davis bounces back. From his standpoint, his risk (and reason to consider an extension now) is that his free agent value will be markedly damaged if he has the 2014 Davis version come out in 2015.

It is a two way street, but I think DD was much more aggressive and truly wanted to get a deal done with JJ and that his stance with Nick was basically, here is our offer, go out and see if you can get a better one (and we won't even put a QO on you to hinder that and because we are worried you might actually be the first player to take it). I think DD valued JJ's production significantly higher than he did Nick's production and that his approach on that two way street was much more amenable to getting a deal done.

Davis, like Wieters, is a Boras client. That doesn't bode well for extensions. Chen has moved from Boras to Octagon.

You could be right, but I see the JJ signing differently. In spring training it was rumored that JJ's agent was asking for a Peralta-like deal (4/53) and DD said they weren't close enough to talk. I think JJ took a deep swallow and decided that remaining an Oriole was more important than the additional year (same AAV). Making it happen just before the playoffs was a smart move on DD's part. Nobody expected it. He made it happen.

[tntoriole]

Davis, like Wieters, is a Boras client. That doesn't bode well for extensions. Chen has moved from Boras to Octagon.

You could be right, but I see the JJ signing differently. In spring training it was rumored that JJ's agent was asking for a Peralta-like deal (4/53) and DD said they weren't close enough to talk. I think JJ took a deep swallow and decided that remaining an Oriole was more important than the additional year (same AAV). Making it happen just before the playoffs was a smart move on DD's part. Nobody expected it. He made it happen.

You wonder if DD could have done the same thing with Nick at that time just before the playoffs. Or, maybe DD tried, and maybe Nick and his agent wanted to see what was out there. Only DD and Nick know for sure.

[LoyalBirdFan]

You wonder if DD could have done the same thing with Nick at that time just before the playoffs. Or, maybe DD tried, and maybe Nick and his agent wanted to see what was out there. Only DD and Nick know for sure.

It is possible DD wasn't very concerned about losing Nick. This is my guess.

[tntoriole]

It is possible DD wasn't very concerned about losing Nick. This is my guess.

Mine too.

[Frobby]

Yes, JJ did not become a free agent only because DD decided to extend him and made enough of an offer to get it done. Similar decisions remain for the batch of players mentioned. Do we extend any of them, let them all walk or trade any of them?

JJ also decided not to test the market. At the end of the day, I think JJ valued staying with the Orioles a lot, as he did in 2011 when he signed his previous deal at a pretty heavy home town discount.

[wildcard]

Davis, like Wieters, is a Boras client. That doesn't bode well for extensions. Chen has moved from Boras to Octagon.

You could be right, but I see the JJ signing differently. In spring training it was rumored that JJ's agent was asking for a Peralta-like deal (4/53) and DD said they weren't close enough to talk. I think JJ took a deep swallow and decided that remaining an Oriole was more important than the additional year (same AAV). Making it happen just before the playoffs was a smart move on DD's part. Nobody expected it. He made it happen.

According to Cots Contracts you have that backwards.

agent: Scott Boras (previously Octagon)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

[mdbdotcom]

According to Cots Contracts you have that backwards.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

Yes, I read it wrong on baseballrefernce.com

[Tony-OH]

"Allowed?" "Malice?" You make it sound like Dan was bestowing on Nick some benevolent grace by letting himself be outbid, or less graciously, by refusing to pay Nick market value...

The truth here is that DD miscalculated Nick's market and he's gone because of it without any compensation.

OR, the truth is that the Os didn't want Nick back... Those are the only conclusions I can come to...

That your opinion of the truth. It's certainly not necessarily the real truth. Personally, if I had to gander knowing how DD has operated so far, I'm guessing he wanted to be outbid on Markakis.