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I don't want to see Wieters playing for the O's until.......


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I don't know if that's the right price, but to me it's looking more and more like something in that neighborhood is going to happen unless he comes back very strong.

You are right, I worded my post wrong.

He will have to sign a 1 year deal, probably something in the 8 mill range, but who knows the amount a team will risk on a one year deal, some teams hurting for catching might over spend.

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I also think that Buck isn't quite so susceptible to some of the biases that often cloud the judgment of the fans (such as backup QB syndrome, and the idea that two hot/cold weeks signal a change in true talent, and the Wieters-didn't-become-Jesus-so-he's-just-the-same-as-a-MiLB-journeyman disease).
I'm not nearly so optimistic. He turns 29 this year and he's had exactly one minor league season with more than 12 homers or a .272 average, despite usually being old for his leagues.
I'm very happy that Joseph has dramatically outperformed expectations and seems to have secured a spot in the majors as a backup for while. He's a great story, easy to root for. But the idea that he's established himself as a quality long term starter after 89 games in his late 20s and a .651 OPS seems somewhat far-fetched.

My goodness, thank you for bringing some sense to this thread. Caleb Joseph is a maybe slightly better than replacement level player that is a seemingly good guy and has a hot bat right now. Comparing him to Wieters, or suggesting anything other than he should be a clear backup to Wieters getting 1-2 starts a week, is wrong.

Wieters has pedigree, until last year, dependability, a track record of consistently excellent play defensively, and a solid, if not spectacular bat from both sides. People think his market value has dropped, it hasn't. People think Caleb Joseph is comparable, he isn't. It's an illusion, as you say.

You're comparing a BMW to a Hyundai. The Hyundai might have some nice features and treat you well when your BMW is in the shop, but it is still a Hyundai and you ain't about to drive it around instead of your BMW.

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I think Caleb can hit 20-plus HR's and bat around .260 over a full season. I'm a Wieters fan. I like him a lot and would prefer him in there, all things equal. But looking at salary, contract, ability, etc., I am hoping we just roll with Joseph after this season. So... I'm with the OP in spirit, as long as it doesn't cost us games this year. And I honestly don't think it will.
I'm not nearly so optimistic. He turns 29 this year and he's had exactly one minor league season with more than 12 homers or a .272 average, despite usually being old for his leagues.
Why do you think that? He was a .268 career minor league hitter and hit more than 12 homers in a minor league season exactly once (as a 27 year-old in AA, 2.6 years older than the league average). Players typically perform worse in the Majors than they do in the minors, especially those players who spent the prime of their career in the minors. It would be pretty shocking to me if either of those predictions came to pass.
Also, Joseph has never caught anything like a full schedule worth of games. His career high in games in a season was 135 in 2013, but that year he played more at other positions than he did at catcher.

Further, if we look at 2014...

Six catchers (qualifying) hit .260 or better:

Buster Posey (.311)

Jonathan Lucroy (.301)

Kurt Suzuki (.288)

Yan Gomes (.278)

Dioner Navarro (.274)

Salvador Perez (.260)

Five catchers had 20 or more homeruns:

Devin Mesoraco (25)

Brian McCann (23)

Buster Posey (22)

Mike Zunino (22)

Yan Gomes (21)

Overlap on those two lists:

Buster Posey

Yan Gomes

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Sure, he'll frame things in a hyperbolically positive light. But who would buy off on that if he didn't look like his old self?

Doesn't matter. It takes one team and a situation like you had with Markakis this past offseason for a guy to think to himself,"Maybe it's time to move on."

You think Buck is any more invested in Wieters than he was with Nick? And bottom line it's not his decision.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like for your proposed scenario to come about, I just think too many things have to fall perfectly into place for it to happen. Of course, it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong either.

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Further, if we look at 2014...

Six catchers (qualifying) hit .260 or better:

Buster Posey (.311)

Jonathan Lucroy (.301)

Kurt Suzuki (.288)

Yan Gomes (.278)

Dioner Navarro (.274)

Salvador Perez (.260)

Five catchers had 20 or more homeruns:

Devin Mesoraco (25)

Brian McCann (23)

Buster Posey (22)

Mike Zunino (22)

Yan Gomes (21)

Overlap on those two lists:

Buster Posey

Yan Gomes

To be fair, catcher is a unique position with more off-days than other positions so relatively few catchers have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Last year, only 9 catchers qualified, compared to 16 second basemen, 22 shortstops and 24 third basemen.

Lowering the standards to 400 plate appearances leaves 23 catchers, of which 12 hit at least .260 and 6 hit 20 homers.

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To be fair, catcher is a unique position with more off-days than other positions so relatively few catchers have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Last year, only 9 catchers qualified, compared to 16 second basemen, 22 shortstops and 24 third basemen.

Lowering the standards to 400 plate appearances leaves 23 catchers, of which 12 hit at least .260 and 6 hit 20 homers.

Fair point, but let's go further and say 300 PA. That gives us 29 catchers. We now have 3 catchers that batted .260 AND hit 20 homers in 2014. The initial post was that Caleb can do both in a season.

Buster Posey (.311; 22 HR)

Yan Gomes (.278; 21 HR)

Devin Mesoraco (.273; 25 HR)

Two of those guys received MVP votes last season (albeit #6 and #21 in the NL). Seems a bit aggressive as a projection for Caleb.

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Fair point, but let's go further and say 300 PA. That gives us 29 catchers. We now have 3 catchers that batted .260 AND hit 20 homers in 2014. The initial post was that Caleb can do both in a season.

Buster Posey (.311; 22 HR)

Yan Gomes (.278; 21 HR)

Devin Mesoraco (.273; 25 HR)

Two of those guys received MVP votes last season (albeit #6 and #21 in the NL). Seems a bit aggressive as a projection for Caleb.

This is also why I don't see Wieters taking any type of 1-year deal, barring an absolute disaster of a season where he never gets healthy enough to play catcher.

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It only takes one team to say. "At least we don't have to pay 80 million for him."

What's worst case here? Wieters averages about 3.25 fWAR/150 games. Boras, being Boras, probably will frame that as Wieters is a 4 win player going forward, you know, because he's 100% healthy and catchers get better with age (unsubstantiated clich?s totally useable in marketing material). So he'll ask for $28M a year for five years (5/140). Then once the GMs wake up in the ER after being overcome by the crazies, he'll offer up a 10% discount because of the recent surgery. So... 5/126. My limit would be something like 4/77 if he had a strong, healthy 2nd half.

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Fair point, but let's go further and say 300 PA. That gives us 29 catchers. We now have 3 catchers that batted .260 AND hit 20 homers in 2014. The initial post was that Caleb can do both in a season.

Buster Posey (.311; 22 HR)

Yan Gomes (.278; 21 HR)

Devin Mesoraco (.273; 25 HR)

Two of those guys received MVP votes last season (albeit #6 and #21 in the NL). Seems a bit aggressive as a projection for Caleb.

Especially considering that his career (AAA+MLB) OPS is in the mid-.600s.

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Fair point, but let's go further and say 300 PA. That gives us 29 catchers. We now have 3 catchers that batted .260 AND hit 20 homers in 2014. The initial post was that Caleb can do both in a season.

Buster Posey (.311; 22 HR)

Yan Gomes (.278; 21 HR)

Devin Mesoraco (.273; 25 HR)

Two of those guys received MVP votes last season (albeit #6 and #21 in the NL). Seems a bit aggressive as a projection for Caleb.

Somehow you missed Evan Gattis.

Yep, those numbers would certainly make Caleb a top 10 catcher in MLB, when a year ago it was doubtful that he was an MLB catcher at all. It would be a hell of a jump.

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Somehow you missed Evan Gattis.

Yep, those numbers would certainly make Caleb a top 10 catcher in MLB, when a year ago it was doubtful that he was an MLB catcher at all. It would be a hell of a jump.

My fault, it seems that Gattis was excluded from the list I was using (ESPN, I like the sort function) as his designation is set as DH. It seems that the positional field in their database is for the player overall, rather than season-by-season. Point still stands. Further, Gattis is a poor defensive catcher (hence why he is pretty much a DH exclusively at this point), so if Caleb were to have similar offensive production, he would be ASG material.

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My fault, it seems that Gattis was excluded from the list I was using (ESPN, I like the sort function) as his designation is set as DH. It seems that the positional field in their database is for the player overall, rather than season-by-season. Point still stands. Further, Gattis is a poor defensive catcher (hence why he is pretty much a DH exclusively at this point), so if Caleb were to have similar offensive production, he would be ASG material.

Yep, I didn't mention it in the original post because I assumed Gattis must have gotten more at-bats at other positions last season. I was surprised to see that 375 of his 401 plate appearances and all of his 22 homers came at catcher.

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