I don't want to see Wieters playing for the O's until.......

[CA-ORIOLE]

Joseph caught about 100 games between AAA and the majors last year and he had four hits in 55 plate appearances in Sept/Oct. And two singles in nine ABs in the playoffs.

Right but as RR said, he is probably better conditioned, prepared and in a better mindset this year.

[Il BuonO]

What's worst case here? Wieters averages about 3.25 fWAR/150 games.

Eh, you're not seriously projecting him to play 150 games and be a 3 WAR guy as your worst case, right?

I mean I understood the remainder of your post, but I can think of far worse projections even within reason.

[CA-ORIOLE]

What's worst case here? Wieters averages about 3.25 fWAR/150 games. Boras, being Boras, probably will frame that as Wieters is a 4 win player going forward, you know, because he's 100% healthy and catchers get better with age (unsubstantiated clich?s totally useable in marketing material). So he'll ask for $28M a year for five years (5/140). Then once the GMs wake up in the ER after being overcome by the crazies, he'll offer up a 10% discount because of the recent surgery. So... 5/126.

When the new pitch framing data comes into place I expect Wieters may drop to below average defensively by DRS's methodology. That's assuming he can maintain something close to his current CS rate. If they apply that data retroactively I think he'd fall from his current +3 rate to an about average catcher (defense) for his career.

My limit would be something like 4/77 if he had a strong, healthy 2nd half.

It would be fairly insane for any team to pay Matt Wieters that kind of money under the most optimistic of circumstances imo.

[DrungoHazewood]

Eh, you're not seriously projecting him to play 150 games and be a 3 WAR guy as your worst case, right?

I mean I understood the remainder of your post, but I can think of far worse projections even within reason.

No, no, sorry. Meant worst case from a "we want to resign him" point of view. Boras will try to make the case that he's worth at least the 3.25 wins/150 he's averaged so far.

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm very happy that Joseph has dramatically outperformed expectations and seems to have secured a spot in the majors as a backup for while. He's a great story, easy to root for. But the idea that he's established himself as a quality long term starter after 89 games in his late 20s and a .651 OPS seems somewhat far-fetched.

Rick Dempsey had a career .666 OPS and a 24 year career. If Joseph can put up a .650 OPS w/ good defense, he will have a ML job somewhere for a long time.

[gmelson26]

When the new pitch framing data comes into place I expect Wieters may drop to below average defensively by DRS's methodology. That's assuming he can maintain something close to his current CS rate. If they apply that data retroactively I think he'd fall from his current +3 rate to an about average catcher (defense) for his career.

It would be fairly insane for any team to pay Matt Wieters that kind of money under the most optimistic of circumstances imo.

Very well articulated. I think you're probavly right here. My eye test tells me he's a terrible framer, and I think it's one of the most important aspects of catching.

[crissfan172]

Aside from Wieters' short time in the MiL, the production has never matched the hype. I'm no Wieters hater, but I'm in no hurry to see him get back. I think Joseph is more valuable behind the plate.

Wieters is gone one year and people forget how great of a defensive catcher he is. The only things you could argue that Wieters is not clearly better than Joseph at is calling the game and framing pitches, and those are far more subjective than some would have you believe.

[Frobby]

My goodness, thank you for bringing some sense to this thread. Caleb Joseph is a maybe slightly better than replacement level player that is a seemingly good guy and has a hot bat right now. Comparing him to Wieters, or suggesting anything other than he should be a clear backup to Wieters getting 1-2 starts a week, is wrong.

Wieters has pedigree, until last year, dependability, a track record of consistently excellent play defensively, and a solid, if not spectacular bat from both sides. People think his market value has dropped, it hasn't. People think Caleb Joseph is comparable, he isn't. It's an illusion, as you say.

You're comparing a BMW to a Hyundai. The Hyundai might have some nice features and treat you well when your BMW is in the shop, but it is still a Hyundai and you ain't about to drive it around instead of your BMW.

I agree with most of your post, but not the bolded sentence. The BMW got banged up pretty badly, and when you get it back from the shop you'll need to see how it's driving.

[DrungoHazewood]

Rick Dempsey had a career .666 OPS and a 24 year career. If Joseph can put up a .650 OPS w/ good defense, he will have a ML job somewhere for a long time.

1) Dempsey had a very long career for someone with a .666 OPS. 2) Dempsey had been in the majors for parts of ~9 years by the time he was Joseph's age. But I do agree that Joseph has a good chance to be a MLB backup for a good while.

[Frobby]

When the new pitch framing data comes into place I expect Wieters may drop to below average defensively by DRS's methodology. That's assuming he can maintain something close to his current CS rate. If they apply that data retroactively I think he'd fall from his current +3 rate to an about average catcher (defense) for his career.

Very well articulated. I think you're probavly right here. My eye test tells me he's a terrible framer, and I think it's one of the most important aspects of catching.

It has been a while since I looked at this, but I think most of the available data shows Wieters to be about average in pitch framing. For example, BP has him at +4.4 framing runs per 7000 pitches (though slightly below average in 2013-14). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57712 Joseph ranks better, though, at +17.4 per 7000 so far in his career. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58842

That said, Wieters is a much better pitch blocker than Joseph, at +9.0 compared to +2.8. I think it's pretty noticeable that some pitches elude Joseph that Wieters would corral.

[Redskins Rick]

1) Dempsey had a very long career for someone with a .666 OPS. 2) Dempsey had been in the majors for parts of ~9 years by the time he was Joseph's age. But I do agree that Joseph has a good chance to be a MLB backup for a good while.

Back then, you could play a strong defensive position with a weaker bat and still be an every day player for several years.

[Frobby]

Back then, you could play a strong defensive position with a weaker bat and still be an every day player for several years.

I really don't think the game has changed that much in that regard. Dempsey spent a lot of years playing in a down offensive era. His career OPS+ was 87. Tghere are plenty of starting catchers today with an OPS+ that low.

[Redskins Rick]

I really don't think the game has changed that much in that regard. Dempsey spent a lot of years playing in a down offensive era. His career OPS+ was 87. Tghere are plenty of starting catchers today with an OPS+ that low.

I guess Dempsey is a bit after the era I was thinking of, like back when Ballenger was playing. Guys like him at SS, great glove and weak stick was more the norm.

[Frobby]

I guess Dempsey is a bit after the era I was thinking of, like back when Ballenger was playing. Guys like him at SS, great glove and weak stick was more the norm.

Dempsey covered a lot of eras, spanning four decades as he did.

[mdbdotcom]

Dempsey was one of the first guys I ever suspected of doing roids. All of a sudden, in his 30s, he comes into camp ripped and is hitting home runs. He said he lifted a lot.