Dan's Offseason Moves Part One: Cruz

[Stotle]

I would say that the 2014 team was roughly eight games better then the competition.

After that the situation becomes overly fluid as the rosters shift.

But I would think that there was, initially, a talent buffer between the O's and the rest of the division.

Does that answer your question?

It does. It at least frames your opinion on how the team show go about the offseason. The extent of that buffer is probably the deciding factor as to whether holding serve with some chance for improvement was a good strategy, or whether it should have been expected that improvements to the roster were needed.

Don't worry, I'm not trying to make you show your math or put you on the spot. haha

[Can_of_corn]

It does. It at least frames your opinion on how the team show go about the offseason. The extent of that buffer is probably the deciding factor as to whether holding serve with some chance for improvement was a good strategy, or whether it should have been expected that improvements to the roster were needed.

Don't worry, I'm not trying to make you show your math or put you on the spot. haha

I'm not worried, I mostly enjoy these discussions with you.

Sometimes I even learn something.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you were in charge of putting together the 2015 roster for the Orioles, starting October, would you set on your task confident the rest of the division had to find a way to improve by around 10 games at a minimum?

It's a simple, but complex, question I guess. I assume you'd look at the rosters, look at injuries, under- and over-performers, prospects maybe, whether teams out of the race played greater-than-usual number of young players in September since they were out of it so early, etc.

It isn't meant to be a trick question. I'd think if you believed the Orioles to be at least ten games better than the competition they'd be essentially a no brainer to pick to win the division -- that's an awful lot of ground to make up in one offseason.

I think I would have knocked about half of their 12-win cushion off just on principle. Plexiglass principle. Then another five off from loss of Markakis and Cruz. Another 3 from Pearce coming down to earth. Then add a few wins back from Manny and Wieters, another 1-2 from Schoop progressing, but maybe -1 or -2 from Hardy and Jones declining, and 1 or 2 to the positive in Davis. And after all that rounding and guessing I'd have gone into the offseason expecting to be about even with the rest of the division, but knowing the Sox and Yanks would go try and buy 5 or 10 or 15 wins.

And in the end hoped they'd be competitive.

[Stotle]

I think I would have knocked about half of their 12-win cushion off just on principle. Plexiglass principle. Then another five off from loss of Markakis and Cruz. Another 3 from Pearce coming down to earth. Then add a few wins back from Manny and Wieters, another 1-2 from Schoop progressing, but maybe -1 or -2 from Hardy and Jones declining, and 1 or 2 to the positive in Davis. And after all that rounding and guessing I'd have gone into the offseason expecting to be about even with the rest of the division, but knowing the Sox and Yanks would go try and buy 5 or 10 or 15 wins.

And in the end hoped they'd be competitive.

Really well put. What would have prevented you from having the mindset that you wanted to enter the season as the favorite? We know on paper the big spenders would try to buy wins, but we also know that it almost never works out that way. Do you think the Orioles can't build a divisional favorite on their payroll, or was it situational factors that make you feel like shooting for having a competitive roster was the reasonable target?

[Stotle]

I'm not worried, I mostly enjoy these discussions with you.

Sometimes I even learn something.

Ha. I don't think you need my help with anything.

[Can_of_corn]

Really well put. What would have prevented you from having the mindset that you wanted to enter the season as the favorite? We know on paper the big spenders would try to buy wins, but we also know that it almost never works out that way. Do you think the Orioles can't build a divisional favorite on their payroll, or was it situational factors that make you feel like shooting for having a competitive roster was the reasonable target?

Not that you asked me but...

I think Dan, partially of his own fault, had very limited flexibility this off-season.

The number of arbitration cases he had was a huge factor in the off-season.

While non-tendering Matusz, De Aza and Hunter might look good on paper it might not be so easy to pull off when you are also letting Cruz, Markakis and Miller walk.

I also think the state of the farm system made it difficult to acquire quality talent for the MLB club.

[weams]

I think Dan, partially of his own fault, had very limited flexibility this off-season.

He invited fan interference.

[Stotle]

Not that you asked me but...

I think Dan, partially of his own fault, had very limited flexibility this off-season.

The number of arbitration cases he had was a huge factor in the off-season.

While non-tendering Matusz, De Aza and Hunter might look good on paper it might not be so easy to pull off when you are also letting Cruz, Markakis and Miller walk.

I also think the state of the farm system made it difficult to acquire quality talent for the MLB club.

Yeah, I guess I view all of that as fairly predictable. Part of building an org is understanding your playing past the end of the present season.

[Can_of_corn]

Ha. I don't think you need my help with anything.

You have information I don't have access to. That leads you to opinions that I find value in.

I appreciate you sharing that.

[Stotle]

You have information I don't have access to. That leads you to opinions that I find value in.

I appreciate you sharing that.

But I really just make up most of it. I'm actually a 12 year old kid -- just a fan.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really well put. What would have prevented you from having the mindset that you wanted to enter the season as the favorite? We know on paper the big spenders would try to buy wins, but we also know that it almost never works out that way. Do you think the Orioles can't build a divisional favorite on their payroll, or was it situational factors that make you feel like shooting for having a competitive roster was the reasonable target?

I think most years the Orioles shoot for mid-to-high 80s on true talent and hope that's enough. True talent is only a vague approximation of wins. Or maybe we never really know true talent. Yea, there's a fair amount of wishing and hoping there.

[Stotle]

I think most years the Orioles shoot for mid-to-high 80s on true talent and hope that's enough. True talent is only a vague approximation of wins. Or maybe we never really know true talent. Yea, there's a fair amount of wishing and hoping there.

So to your mind $120 million payroll, give or take, gets you around a mid- to high-80s team in today's game?

[DrungoHazewood]

So to your mind $120 million payroll, give or take, gets you around a mid- to high-80s team in today's game?

If you're pretty good and pretty lucky.

[weams]

If you're pretty good and pretty lucky.

If your starting nine has one of the three best players in the MLB on it and two of the top top 15 position players in the league.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Stotle]

If you're pretty good and pretty lucky.

That certainly makes a lot of your stances understandable. I don't know, I think you can put together a very good club on $120 MM without being pretty lucky. Maybe you need to have an absence of bad luck, I don't know.