2016 Rotation

[Aristotelian]

I see us going after a second-tier starter...which makes me think we should just try to bid on Chen!

I see a second tier starter in our future too, but I think we will be able to get someone as good as Chen at a cheaper price and/or shorter years, while getting the comp pick back for Chen. Chen just doesn't make sense when there are a half dozen guys who are just as good.

[winkies]

You might see Bundy next year...

Come in to the clubhouse and collect his paycheck and then go buy a new truck.

On a serious note, not sure how DD is going to deal with that. My guess is that he never pitches again or gets hurt in ST and off to surgery and the 60-day DL.

Yea im starting to see the importance of O's pitching signing bonuses. It's basic math.

You say we'll the Orioles drafted me in the first round as a starting pitcher. There is a 90 percent chance that I will bust. Either by never making it to the MLB or when I get there I will just blow.

So give me the money so i can retire at 28 and chill on the beach.

[Phantom]

That's a pretty specious view of things. After a terrible first half where he couldn't consistently throw strikes, Tillman has been very good outside one 13 day layoff start post injury. Guess he must have found that elixir again.

ERA by month:

Mar/Apr - 7.59

May - 5.03

June - 5.13

July - 1.31

Aug - 5.63

You really counting on a bounceback to sub 3.50 ERA Tillman for 2016? Maybe it was just a control blip, or maybe Tilly's new sinker and adjustments tunrned the year and his career around, but it's always easy for fans to wear the rose colored glasses. We thought that we had found some way to beat the projections, and then this year all the pitchers pretty much regress to or above their peripherals, and out come the excuses. Projecting forward I'm much more likely to trust the projections than a month or two and some flimsy reasoning.

[Crazysilver03]

Do you think' date=' if healthy, we throw Bundy in there and let him have 10 starts to see what he's got, since he has no options?[/quote']

He would have to highly impress in ST. But he has no real inning base to play off of. If he is even healthy, he is probably limited to 100-120 innings next year.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

[Frobby]

ERA by month:

Mar/Apr - 7.59

May - 5.03

June - 5.13

July - 1.31

Aug - 5.63

You really counting on a bounceback to sub 3.50 ERA Tillman for 2016? Maybe it was just a control blip, or maybe Tilly's new sinker and adjustments tunrned the year and his career around, but it's always easy for fans to wear the rose colored glasses. We thought that we had found some way to beat the projections, and then this year all the pitchers pretty much regress to or above their peripherals, and out come the excuses. Projecting forward I'm much more likely to trust the projections than a month or two and some flimsy reasoning.

I think those splits are pretty misleading. Tillman is pitching pretty well now (2.35 ERA his last nine starts with one really bad start in there after his injury) and it won't surprise me at all if he gets his ERA down below 4.00 by the end of the year. As to the future, I don't know about sub-3.50, but I still feel he's a solid 2-3 starter going forward.

[SteveO]

I think those splits are pretty misleading. Tillman is pitching pretty well now (2.35 ERA his last nine starts with one really bad start in there after his injury) and it won't surprise me at all if he gets his ERA down below 4.00 by the end of the year. As to the future, I don't know about sub-3.50, but I still feel he's a solid 2-3 starter going forward.

To me the question is how much will it take to keep Tillman. If you could sign him to a reasonable deal it might be worth looking at. If he is looking for a lot of money then do you think it might be worth considering moving him and taking advantage of the large number or FA pitchers to replace his production.

Tillman is a FA after 2017 and has had some success, his value might not be at its peak but I think he still has good value to the right team. It could be an opportunity to fill hole in say the OF. You would of course now have to sign 2 pitchers to replace Chen and Tillman but with the strong pitching market this offseason and hopefully some budget room, it could be done more reasonably than in some other offseasons.

Just curious if this is a strategy that they should consider.

*edit...after all that...I realized if there is flood of FA pitchers, likely the demand for pitchers by trade would be diminished?*

[Phantom]

I think those splits are pretty misleading. Tillman is pitching pretty well now (2.35 ERA his last nine starts with one really bad start in there after his injury) and it won't surprise me at all if he gets his ERA down below 4.00 by the end of the year. As to the future, I don't know about sub-3.50, but I still feel he's a solid 2-3 starter going forward.

Oh, they are certainly misleading. First, it's ERA. Second, it's arbitrary splits. My point was more about assigning a hopeful narrative.

I hope you are correct, but we are in a thread predicting the 2016 rotation, and for that purpose I'll trust hard numbers over hopeful narratives and predictions of continued success after fairly brief glimpses this year. Do we know that the last nine starts are more predictive than the season as a whole? Even if we see another month of it, it will be far from a sure thing. Isn't this the same mistake we made with starters coming into 2015?

[SteveO]

Oh, they are certainly misleading. First, it's ERA. Second, it's arbitrary splits. My point was more about assigning a hopeful narrative.

I hope you are correct, but we are in a thread predicting the 2016 rotation, and for that purpose I'll trust hard numbers over hopeful narratives and predictions of continued success after fairly brief glimpses this year. Do we know that the last nine starts are more predictive than the season as a whole? Even if we see another month of it, it will be far from a sure thing. Isn't this the same mistake we made with starters coming into 2015?

His last 9 starts are more in line with his previous couple seasons than the rest of his year IMO.

If your questioning the sample size of the 9 starts as a predictor of him getting back to where he was, I would question the sample size of the rest of his year (the bad stuff) comparitive to his past several years (pretty decent) as a body of work.

[Phantom]

His last 9 starts are more in line with his previous couple seasons than the rest of his year IMO.

If your questioning the sample size of the 9 starts as a predictor of him getting back to where he was, I would question the sample size of the rest of his year (the bad stuff) comparitive to his past several years (pretty decent) as a body of work.

This is certainly valid. The problem is, the rest of his career is confusing from a predictive standpoint. I'm sure the optimistic will look at the beginning of this year as the outlier, and take the other years plus finish to this season as proof that he will outperform his numbers again next season.

[SteveO]

This is certainly valid. The problem is, the rest of his career is confusing from a predictive standpoint. I'm sure the optimistic will look at the beginning of this year as the outlier, and take the other years plus finish to this season as proof that he will outperform his numbers again next season.

Lets put it this way. He is a cost controlled arm who can be pretty good at times and is certainly good enough to be in most teams 5 man rotation. Given that, unless someone offers you something worth trading him for, he should be in our rotation next year.

[Frobby]

Oh, they are certainly misleading. First, it's ERA. Second, it's arbitrary splits. My point was more about assigning a hopeful narrative.

I hope you are correct, but we are in a thread predicting the 2016 rotation, and for that purpose I'll trust hard numbers over hopeful narratives and predictions of continued success after fairly brief glimpses this year. Do we know that the last nine starts are more predictive than the season as a whole? Even if we see another month of it, it will be far from a sure thing. Isn't this the same mistake we made with starters coming into 2015?

Frankly, I expected some regression from our starters in 2015, though certainly the abysmal performance of Norris was beyond anything I expected. Everyone else is within the range of what's reasonably foreseeable, though on balance maybe a bit worse than the median outcome I would have expected.

I don't put a lot of stock in FIP, xFIP and the like, not because they aren't decent systems, but because the range of possible outcomes is very wide in reality and for me they are at best a directional indicator rather than some precise measure of a likely outcome.

[SteveO]

Tillman is a guy I would love to see work with Brady to improve his conditioning. To me he seemed to labor a bit early in the year. Not sure if he has in the past, I do think he could benefit from it though.

[Three Run Homer]

You could try to sign TOR starter, but if they did that I don't think they'd have enough money left over for adequate solutions at 1B, DH, LF and RF.

I think the best chance to be competitive next season is to hope for bounceback seasons from Gonzo and Tillman and hope that Tyler Wilson, Joe Gunkel or Ariel Miranda can be an adequate 5th starter. Save your money to spend on the offense, where there are fewer plausible internal options at AA and AAA in my opinion.

I'm starting to lean towards the view that the team needs to switch gears towards rebuilding next season anyway, which would also dictate not spending big bucks on the rotation.

[MDtransplant757]

Tilman hasn't been an early year pitcher. Never has been. What the O's need is to get Ubaldo out of town, and maybe trade gonzo at the trade deadline next year.

[Pheasants]

I think the worst mistake would be to go after a second-tier pitcher. They have the pitchers to replace Chen if that is all they want. Gunkel and Miranda as well as those already mentioned. I'd like to keep Chen, though I doubt if he wants to come back as he seems to feel the send down was a slap in the face rather than just the way DD does things. So either go after a TOR or go with what we have.