Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2016

[DrungoHazewood]

Just because the median numbers of that group are close to Matusz's doesn't mean those guys are easy to find. There are an awful lot of guys who pitched less than 40 innings, because they were tried and failed. I see 161 relievers who threw at least 40 innings, and another 213 who threw 10-39.2, and another 191 who threw under 10. The average reliever ERA was 3.71, so those guys who threw 40+ innings and had an ERA of 3.16 or better are in the upper tier.

At some point you have to have a limit, you have to walk away from paying a 50-inning, sub-one-win player $millions. The Orioles pen would be totally unaffordable if they paid $5M per 50 innings. The bullpen would cost $30-40M.

[abbott]

Words having meaning. Replacement level player has a specific meaning when it comes to MLB players. Brian Matusz has been worth 2.7 fWAR over the last four seasons (a bit more if you subtract his sub-replacement level performance as a starter in 2012).

So what is 0.675 wins a year worth?

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[MurphDogg]

So what is 0.675 wins a year worth?

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Somewhere between $3.5 and $4.4 million, it would appear. [emoji2]

[abbott]

Somewhere between $3.5 and $4.4 million, it would appear. [emoji2]

Not if you cut him

Matusz' WAA over the last four years is -0.3.

His WAAadj over the last 3 years is -0.4.

Whatever he is worth, he's not performing to the level of the 4th overall pick in the draft.

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[DrungoHazewood]

Whatever he is worth, he's not performing to the level of the 4th overall pick in the draft.

There have been 50 4th picks in the history of the draft. So far Matusz' career value is 22nd of the 50. So, he's above average.

[Can_of_corn]

Not if you cut him

Matusz' WAA over the last four years is -0.3.

His WAAadj over the last 3 years is -0.4.

Whatever he is worth, he's not performing to the level of the 4th overall pick in the draft.

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As opposed to the top 4 picks that never even make the majors?

[Can_of_corn]

There have been 50 4th picks in the history of the draft. So far Matusz' career value is 22nd of the 50. So, he's above average.

He might pitch another decade.

[DrungoHazewood]

As opposed to the top 4 picks that never even make the majors?

17 of the 50 (34%) 4th overall picks were replacement level or lower for their careers, or never appeared in the majors.

But remember, this is sports. If you're not in the top 5% or 10% you're lazy, entitled, stupid, or the product of an craptacular organization.

[MurphDogg]

Not if you cut him

Matusz' WAA over the last four years is -0.3.

His WAAadj over the last 3 years is -0.4.

Whatever he is worth, he's not performing to the level of the 4th overall pick in the draft.

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Yep, he is a below average pitcher, which is why he is in the pen. Above replacement level.

[Can_of_corn]

I am really impressed that Manny settled with the Orioles for $5M. It raises my hopes for the future. I'm pretty amazed. I figured he would come out with a really high number. Good for all of us.

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I am also thinking it was done so painlessly that there is a slight hope that it is a precursor to something more substantial this offseason.

[Can_of_corn]

Exactly. I'm encouraged suddenly. That isn't good. LOL

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I was expecting a fight and a rather larger number. I want to see the breakdown of the incentives.

[Frobby]

I was expecting a fight and a rather larger number. I want to see the breakdown of the incentives.

I do, too, but just out of curiosity. I'm very happy he's in the fold without a protracted haggle, and I hope he earns all the incentives he was given.

[El Gordo]

This agreement with Manny seems very cordial. If Manny has the year I think he will, he'll be making a lot more than 5 M. But still it bodes well for the possibility of an extension.

[abbott]

I am really impressed that Manny settled with the Orioles for $5M. It raises my hopes for the future. I'm pretty amazed. I figured he would come out with a really high number. Good for all of us.

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It's a mistake on Manny's part if he thinks being team friendly now will result in the team being friendly for him in the future. Angelos treats contracts as competition and he doesn't lose or give in. Angelos is laughing at this and won't respect Manny for giving in.

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[PaulFolk]

It's a mistake on Manny's part if he thinks being team friendly now will result in the team being friendly for him in the future. Angelos treats contracts as competition and he doesn't lose or give in. Angelos is laughing at this and won't respect Manny for giving in.

This was a profoundly ridiculous post at the time it was made, and looks even more off-base now that we've seen the Chris Davis contract. Angelos clearly is willing to spend extra money to keep Orioles veterans in Baltimore.