Trumbo an Oriole (For Clevenger Done Deal)

[DrungoHazewood]

They'll be paying for a little over the average cost of a win, but not necessarily how much it would generally cost to acquire a one win player in free agency. Agreed, he'll have an opportunity to exceed that.

I'm surprised at how linear that seems to be. As I said a few days ago, I don't understand why anyone pays $7-8M for a one-win player in free agency, but they do. I know your thought is that the teams don't think they're really a one-win player. I'm sure the O's believe/hope/wish Trumbo will be a 2+ win player.

[Tx Oriole]

Slashed .262/.310/.449 22HR and 64RBI over 142 games last year while playing a little over half his games in Seattle, where power goes to die. Projected to make roughly $9MM last year in arbitration before becoming a Free Agent in 2016.

Can't play OF but would give the O's a legitimate DH and/or 1B to replace Davis. Personally, I would love to see the O's avoid the burdensome contract associated with Davis and go this route. Let's you field a competitive team, coup a draft pick, and continue to reload for the 2018 window when Manny and Schoop are in their primes and the team has immense payroll flexibility.

Trumbo is 3 months younger than Davis and would be playing half his games in OPACY during a contract year. This is how you would replace all those lost HRs.

Found this piece interesting in regards to batted balls and velocity:

Mariners are already long Logan Morrison and want to clear some salary. Assuming it didn't cost a ton, this makes a lot of sense.

I like the deal. I hope it can be done.

[Roll Tide]

Any word on the other player extra player coming back.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think as long as he's not consistently asked to play the OF calling him a one win player is selling him a little short.

Planning to play a guy 30 games in the field and 120 at DH to minimize defensive exposure is good. But that very often ends up with 90 in the field and 30 at DH.

[Stotle]

I think as long as he's not consistently asked to play the OF calling him a one win player is selling him a little short.

Who called him a one win player? I didn't. I said I agreed he'll have an opportunity to produce excess against his salary.

[Frobby]

Those are his numbers at Fenway Park. His Camden Yards stats aren't good -- .200/.256/.343/.599, albeit in an even smaller sample size of 39 PAs.

Yeah, I'm not worried about his OPACY stats in 39 PA. He'll hit 15-20 homers at OPACY this season if he's healthy. It's a much more homer-friendly ballpark than any of the home stadiums he has played in (Anaheim, Arizona, Seattle).

[Pickles]

Planning to play a guy 30 games in the field and 120 at DH to minimize defensive exposure is good. But that very often ends up with 90 in the field and 30 at DH.

He can play first base and not kill his value.

[Pickles]

Who called him a one win player? I didn't. I said I agreed he'll have an opportunity to produce excess against his salary.

Fair enough.

I was just assuming in the context of the convesation about Trumbo and one win players.

[Babypowder]

He can play first base and not kill his value.

Maybe, maybe not. While playing the OF obviously dragged down his defensive value, playing 1B will bring down his offensive value. A 108 wRC+ is more valuable in the OF than it is at 1B.

[Pickles]

Maybe, maybe not. While playing the OF obviously dragged down his defensive value, playing 1B will bring down his offensive value. A 108 wRC+ is more valuable in the OF than it is at 1B.

Well if you accept the metrics he's a decent first basemen and a god awful ofer.

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe, maybe not. While playing the OF obviously dragged down his defensive value, playing 1B will bring down his offensive value. A 108 wRC+ is more valuable in the OF than it is at 1B.

And more valuable at first than DH. Clearly when the roster is all full up you make the best of the players you have and might have to play some guys at positions that aren't their theoretical max value.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well if you accept the metrics he's a decent first basemen and a god awful ofer.

UZR says he's Chris Davis at first, Nelson Cruz in the OF. Or something like that.

[Babypowder]

Well if you accept the metrics he's a decent first basemen and a god awful ofer.

Yes, I understand that. Will better defense at a less valuable defensive position offset the drop in offensive value (offensive standards are higher at 1B)? That's the question. Mark Trumbo is not a very good hitter for a first baseman. League average wRC+ last year was at 113.

Mark Trumbo would have been a below average offensive first baseman in all of the last 3 seasons.

[DoubleStufOriole]

I admittedly haven't studied his stats in-depth, but at first glance, I think I'd be okay with Steve Baron being the second piece in the deal. I have never heard of him until he was mentioned as a possibility by MLB Trade Rumors, but he was a first-round pick in 2009. Getting Boog Powell would be great, but at least Baron is a realistic return. He also replaces some of the catching depth that we lose by dealing Clevenger.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=baron-001ste

[Pickles]

Yes, I understand that. Will better defense at a less valuable defensive position offset the drop in offensive value (offensive standards are higher at 1B)? That's the question. Mark Trumbo is not a very good hitter for a first baseman. League average wRC+ last year was at 113.

Mark Trumbo would have been a below average offensive first baseman in all of the last 3 seasons.

And I understand all this.

And if you look at his history, it does indeed suggest that he's more valuable at first than in the of.