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Davis' Mystery Team is ....Nationals? Tigers?


weams

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There's no way that Davis/Boras, but probably more Davis, comes out looking anything but bad if he signs for so much as a dollar less than what the Orioles offer was. Even with an opt out, to get that offer and not take it, and then settle for less isn't going to endear yourself to anyone.

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From reading your posts, I believe you think the publicly leaked "offer" to Cespedes is more a ploy to get Davis and Boras to move than actually to sign Cespedes.

I'm hoping it is both things, but yes, I think they still prefer Davis and are hoping the news that we are negotiating with Cespedes will get Boras moving. That said, the report is that we have "made an offer" to Cespedes. That is more than news that "we have had contact" with his agent or are "in discussions" or "have interest," which is the verbiage you normally hear. So, I'm assuming there is a realistic chance we could actually end up signing Cespedes, but I still think they would prefer Davis if they can get him off the dime already.

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My valuation of Davis is around 5/120, but Cespedes even higher. Purely on performance and inflation and declining at a set rate and a win costing $7M. Cespedes at 5/90 is almost exactly what I get if I pretend he didn't have a near-seven-win 2015, but instead was worth three. Or... if a win in free agency was $4M, like it's 10 years ago. This is a weird market.

Cespedes is also more valuable because we would get a comp pick back from Davis. Cespedes plus a comp pick for 5/$90 vs Davis 7/$150.

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http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/chris-davis-baltimore-orioles-free-agency-hot-stove-offer-contract-yoenis-cespedes-011516

The trend here is fairly steady. More and more often, Davis has been hitting the ball to the pull side. It's been true with grounders, and it's been true with flies. And where five years ago Davis actually ranked in the bottom half in pull rate, this past season he was right near the top of the league. Just about nobody else pulled the ball with Davis' frequency.
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Despite having the highest offer out at times, the nats have missed out on

1. Heyward

2. O'Day

3. Zobrist

4. Upton

5. Cespedes

6. Brandon Phillips also wouldn't give the okay on the trade

Other than signing Murphy nothing has gone the nats way since Rizzo made a back handed diss against Bud Black. It's almost as if all the baseball karma is coming back to get him at once. Him and his prized reliever Pap can miss the playoffs again.

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