PECOTA projections

[tntoriole]

I don't put that much stock in the four-year total. Last year we dropped by 15 games from the year before. Some people see that as a trend that will continue. I don't, but I do not think it is patently unreasonable.

It would have been interesting in the winter before the 2012 season if the punditry class had attempted to predict which teams would win the most games in the AL over the next four years. Pretty sure the Orioles would have been near the bottom or last in that poll. I believe each season is a highly variable process and, in this age of parity and nondynastic team structure, throwing darts would have as good an opportunity to be accurate. But one of the constants is Buck Showalter and I think he knows how to win with teams that require a lot of moving parts. I don't put much stock in the predictions like the OP (or in any other pundit).

[abbott]

Which team had a better last 4 years, The Royals or The Orioles? Arbitrary 4 year period records are meaninglessness. Best record over 4 years equals only 2 playoff seasons? Wha happened?

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[atomic]

If they could actually predict number of wins correctly they wouldn't be publishing on the web for everyone to see they would be Vegas laying down bets and getting rich.

[tntoriole]

Which team had a better last 4 years, The Royals or The Orioles? Arbitrary 4 year period records are meaninglessness. Best record over 4 years equals only 2 playoff seasons? Wha happened?

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Would you rather have had a replay of the years from 2008-2011 instead? "Only 2 playoff seasons"....geez, so everything is no good unless you win the World Series every year? The Royals were a wild card team in 2014 and won their division last year and they got hot in short series, big deal. Ask their fans how lovely it was being a Royals fan in 2012. The fans of most any other team in baseball would be very glad to have had the kind of winning baseball we have had over the last four years.

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[abbott]

Would you rather have had a replay of the years from 2008-2011 instead? "Only 2 playoff seasons"....geez, so everything is no good unless you win the World Series every year? The Royals were a wild card team in 2014 and won their division last year and they got hot in short series, big deal. Ask their fans how lovely it was being a Royals fan in 2012. The fans of most any other team in baseball would be very glad to have had the kind of winning baseball we have had over the last four years.

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since when is 4 years the period of time to measure success? If you look at the last 5 years or 3 years the Orioles don't look so good. Most fans don't want the Orioles blueprint of lack of success.

Win World Series every year? How about get to one every 30 years.

1984-2015 No World Series appearance. 4 playoff seasons in the last 32 years certainly lowers the bar. Just like Angelos wants. You'll be happy with almost anything so ownership doesnt have to try too hard.

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[tntoriole]

since when is 4 years the period of time to measure success? If you look at the last 5 years or 3 years the Orioles don't look so good. Most fans don't want the Orioles blueprint of lack of success.

Win World Series every year? How about get to one every 30 years.

1984-2015 No World Series appearance. 4 playoff seasons in the last 32 years certainly lowers the bar. Just like Angelos wants. You'll be happy with almost anything so ownership doesnt have to try too hard.

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If the last four seasons is being "happy with almost anything", then, I am guilty as charged. I am sorry you haven't enjoyed the last four Orioles seasons. Maybe 2016 will be better.

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[TheWall]

I do genuinely pity the fans that haven't been able to appreciate the past 4 years. Going to playoff games in 2012 / 2014 were some of the happiest moments of my life.

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[Frobby]

Would you rather have had a replay of the years from 2008-2011 instead? "Only 2 playoff seasons"....geez, so everything is no good unless you win the World Series every year? The Royals were a wild card team in 2014 and won their division last year and they got hot in short series, big deal. Ask their fans how lovely it was being a Royals fan in 2012. The fans of most any other team in baseball would be very glad to have had the kind of winning baseball we have had over the last four years.

I'm quite happy with our last four years, but I'd rather have the Royals' last four years than ours. But really I think the main point is that our four year record doesn't tell us much about how 2016 will look. Boston won more games in 2008-11 than we did in 2012-15, but that didn't stop Boston from finishing last in 2012. It's a dynamic situation and you have to look at what's gone on with your own team as well as the others.

[tntoriole]

I'm quite happy with our last four years, but I'd rather have the Royals' last four years than ours. But really I think the main point is that our four year record doesn't tell us much about how 2016 will look. Boston won more games in 2007-11 than we did in 2012-15, but that didn't stop Boston from finishing last in 2012. It's a dynamic situation and you have to look at what's gone on with your own team as well as the others.

Oh I agree. But for every citing of the Royals, there are probably 20 other teams fan bases who would rather have had our last four years performance rather than their own. And give me just one more week in 2014 where the Royals were not lucky hot and it would be not even close as to whose four years would be better (given that the Royals also had a season of 90 losses during that four, which probably was not pleasant) I simply put the historical aside up there as a bit of a counterbalance to the OP annual pundits predictions of the dire straits that no doubt will be the Orioles plight and that these pundits methods do little better at predicting 2016 than do historical looks over the last few years (or throwing darts at a MLB board, for that matter).

[SteveO]

I think this is a 75-85 win team as constructed with no further additions. 74 seems on the low side but its not crazy either.

Adding a SP and another OF of some degree of quality would IMO enhance their chances. Adding say Gallardo and Fowler would make me think they are a 82-92 win team. Perhaps even better than that with a few good breaks.

For me adding a SP and OF is not just about adding to this team, its also about a little insurance if someone goes down in the SP or OF. That said I hate the idea of giving up draft picks for either of these guys. If they can swing a deal for an OF and SP giving up minimal talent and picking up payroll, I would much prefer this

[TheDirtyBird]

USA Today has us at 78 wins http://usat.ly/1PzB8Zn

[twinedenter]

You're not a bit concerned about their bunch of young players who're already performing very well, augmented by Price, and Pedroia and Ortiz and Koji and... yea... they'll probably be right there.

I hate to say it but I agree. I hate the arrogant Red Sox Nation, but they look strong. Porcello bounced back very nicely in the second half last year and I suspect he will build on that.

[tntoriole]

I think this is a 75-85 win team as constructed with no further additions. 74 seems on the low side but its not crazy either.

Adding a SP and another OF of some degree of quality would IMO enhance their chances. Adding say Gallardo and Fowler would make me think they are a 82-92 win team. Perhaps even better than that with a few good breaks.

For me adding a SP and OF is not just about adding to this team, its also about a little insurance if someone goes down in the SP or OF. That said I hate the idea of giving up draft picks for either of these guys. If they can swing a deal for an OF and SP giving up minimal talent and picking up payroll, I would much prefer this

Yeah, and here was a carefully reasoned, statistically sound, complex, researched opinion from one of the top baseball blogs in January 2014. Ummm....a little off. 78 wins, last place for 2014...actual results 96 wins, first place. So the range of most "predictions" for wins seems to be somewhere between 75 and 95. And I predict that tomorrow it will either snow....or it won't. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-stars-and-scrubs-problem/

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, and here was a carefully reasoned, statistically sound, complex, researched opinion from one of the top baseball blogs in January 2014. Ummm....a little off. 78 wins, last place for 2014...actual results 96 wins, first place. So the range of most "predictions" for wins seems to be somewhere between 75 and 95. And I predict that tomorrow it will either snow....or it won't. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-stars-and-scrubs-problem/

Yea, these things are terrible. I remember them thinking the 2011 team was going to be good.

Funny how people here only talk about these things when they say the O's will be bad or the Red Sox will be good.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yea, these things are terrible. I remember them thinking the 2011 team was going to be good.

Funny how people here only talk about these things when they say the O's will be bad or the Red Sox will be good.

I definitely respect the modeling. And I get what you mean. Perhaps those who dislike the models would feel differently if they had rosy pictures to paint for the Orioles.

My only gripe is that there does seem to be something systematically wrong w/r/t the Red Sox and Orioles (typically underrating us/overrating them). Perhaps defense isn't adequately accounted for? Perhaps OBP isn't the predictive force it once was? Perhaps there's simply something in the error term that the Orioles have that just can't be quantified at this time? I don't know. I guess that's really not a gripe, more of a question.

I did have a bit of an issue with whoever it was (Cameron?) sort of hand waving the Orioles as an outlier rather than using it as a spring board for questioning the underlying wisdom of his model. That just struck me as a bit arrogant for something we know is going to be really difficult and fluid to predict.

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