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Why doesn't Buck bunt?


CarolinaCop

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Which is my little Chevy wont be running Daytona with the "big" boys! LMFAO :)

Ya get dem big [expletive deleted] dat can hit the [expletive deleted] ball out da ballpark and ya can't make any [expletive deleted] mistakes.

- 2016 Orioles

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That's one of my favorite things about Buck as a manager. I absolutely hate giving away free outs and so does he. It's been statistically proven that sacrifice bunts hurts the production of an offense. The expected number of runs with a runner on first and no outs is 0.83 runs. The run expectancy of a runner on second with one out is 0.64 runs. It's much easier to drive in a runner from first with three outs to work with than it is to drive in a runner from second with only two outs to work with. I have no idea why there are still managers who continually call for sacrifice bunts but I'm just glad Buck is not one of them.

I am in agreement with the decision at the time, and it's closer to a run-expectation argument in the 7th, but IMO the best basis to judge would be win probability delta. So in the 1st inning, it's all about the .19 runs you're giving up, but in the bottom of the 9th, it's all about maximizing the chance to get 1 run right there (if tied).

Weaver actually knew this and while he is famously known for telling a reporter to "stick the sac bunt up his ass and leave it there", he wrote in his books that the time to bunt is when 1 run is all you need.

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?There are only three outs an inning, and they should be treasured. Give one away and you?re making everything harder for yourself.?

It's funny, I was reading this same time watching the twins and royals game. 4-3 game 9th inning, no outs, 3-1 count Dozier steals 2nd. Wade Davis can't find the plate and now you ask for Danny Santana to lay down the sac bunt. He tries to square up on ball 4 way out of the zone. Very next pitch he chases a ball in the dirt for a strikeout.

Could of had back to back walks with no outs, now you've just given away a out.

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While I generally don't like bunts, it does make sense sometimes, especially for semi-fast batters. A sacrifice is a semi-worthwhile play primarily because of the chance that the defense will screw up.

Of course, in this situation, I probably wouldn't bunt Hardy. He's slow and he doesn't bunt much.

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