What is going on with the Orioles and the cutter?

[LookitsPuck]

Just read this on Twitter:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Buck mentioned tonight that Bundy is being asked not to throw the cutter/slider right now. Some concerns it bothered him in the AFL.</p>— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) <a href="

">June 5, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

...which goes back to a 2012 article in particular on FanGraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-duquette-doesnt-like-cutters/

In particular:

?Why don?t you take a look at the chart with the average against cutters in the big leagues, batting average against and then come back and tell me that that?s a great pitch,? Duquette said.

In an interview with Steve Melewski that is destined to provide content for weeks, Dan Duquette outlined the Orioles? philosophy when it comes to the cut fastball. In essence, the pitch won?t be taught in their minor league organization. ?We don?t like it as a pitch,? the Baltimore GM said.

The interview was full of controversial statements. For one, Duquette asked incredulously if any good pitcher has dominated in the big leagues using a cutter. He dismissed Mariano Rivera ? ?that?s a fastball? ? so we may have a problem of definition. By the BIS pitch type percentage leaderboards housed here, there are plenty of excellent pitchers that have used the cutter: Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, James Shields, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, David Price, Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright all show up on the first page, meaning they use the pitch often. Some dude named Roy Halladay throws the cutter almost a quarter of the time according to PITCHf/x. Unless he?s going to dismiss all of these as fastballs ? in which case we?d have to ask what a cutter actually is ? that statement seems demonstrably wrong.

Considering Arrieta's bread and butter pitch is a slider/cutter...and Bundy desperately needs something other than his flat 4 seamer...what are the O's to do at this point?

[MDtransplant757]

Wouldn't be good if he got hurt, now would it?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

If Bundy can't throw something other than his straight as a laser beam fastball, his MLB career isn't going to last long.

[LookitsPuck]

More from Buck re: his cutter from Roch:

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/06/showalter-speaks-after-8-6-loss-1.html

Bundy has been scored upon in five of his last six outings to raise his ERA to 4.94 in 23 2/3 innings.

“Dylan, little by little,” Showalter said. “It’s tough. This is a guy who hasn’t really pitched out of Double-A and in the American League East, you’re going to pitch, whether you’re a Rule 5 or whether you’re in Dylan’s situation. He’s going to learn from it. He’s going to be good. We’re going to get him some innings. He’s trying to develop as a young pitcher and also trying to stay healthy, so it’s two things I’ve got to be aware of every time we bring him in. That’s why we wait until he’s had two or three days off.

“He’s been pretty good all year. If you go through the whole evolution, he went to fall league and the slider/cutter seemed to be the reason his elbow was ... He’s pitching this year without that. That’s a big pitch for him. It’s something he’ll probably have next year. If we get to a point this year we think physically he’s in good shape, we might let him do it this year. So, now it’s fastball, curveball, changeup. That was a big weapon for him.

“We get his 60, 70 innings, next spring take the governors off of him. Keep in mind where he is experience-wise and what’s going on with him physically. I’m trying to help him develop and keep him healthy. Next year and hopefully at some point this year we’re going to get a good return from it.”

So essentially his (arguably) best pitch is eliminated from him. So the plan is just string him along until they deem him healthy enough...and MAYBE he gets it back this year. But ideally before next season? How is that growing him?

I think it's a no win situation. You can't put him in pressure situations...although not sure why Bundy was put into that extra inning game in Cleveland, but I digress. Maybe Buck has learned since then that Bundy is pretty much a mop up guy at best until he gets his cutter back. So really he's now a Rule V'er like most of us thought.

[El Gordo]

Makes total sense to me. They are worried throwing it stresses the elbow, and they want to be careful. Also he's a guy who should be working his way up from AA and he has to learn in the ML. Why throw all caution to the winds and risk injuring him again. That would be a win now risk which I thought some people were opposed to. I does give one something else to complain about. O's suck.

[Malike]

Makes total sense to me. They are worried throwing it stresses the elbow, and they want to be careful. Also he's a guy who should be working his way up from AA and he has to learn in the ML. Why throw all caution to the winds and risk injuring him again. That would be a win now risk which I thought some people were opposed to. I does give one something else to complain about. O's suck.

Makes total sense to any reasonable person. Some people refuse to be reasonable.

[LookitsPuck]

Makes total sense to any reasonable person. Some people refuse to be reasonable.

This is more about the organizational edict against the cutter. Has nothing about being reasonable or not...considering my post prior.

[El Gordo]

My understanding is they feel that young pitchers should focus on FB command followed by the development of a breaking pitch and a CH. They feel that early reliance on the cutter not only impedes the development on other secondary pitches it can erode FB velocity. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. But then I don't have an agenda.

[LookitsPuck]

My understanding is they feel that young pitchers should focus on FB command followed by the development of a breaking pitch and a CH. They feel that early reliance on the cutter not only impedes the development on other secondary pitches it can erode FB velocity. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. But then I don't have an agenda.

How has the development of young starters worked for the Orioles, El Gordo?

And no agenda here. But you can keep spinning that nonsensical, maniacal BS. It's the only ammo you have.

[LookitsPuck]

Back on topic. Beyond the Box Score actually dove into Duquette's statements and found some pretty interesting tidbits:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/11/3754120/revisiting-dan-duquette-cutter-baltimore-orioles-sabermetrics

Read the entire article...as it's very interesting. But here's something that stands out:

The Orioles as a team have been getting killed on the cutter like nobody's business over the past two seasons. As every ten runs tends to equate to about one win, their lackluster performance on cut fastballs over the past two seasons appears to be significant. The Orioles finished at the back of the pack in both overall value from the cutter as well as the standardized rate value per 100 cutters.

So are cut fastballs really not effective pitches? Using this same two year period, covering the most recent year of data Duquette would have had to analyze when he took over the position as well as data from his first year in his post, the data would suggest otherwise.

GROUP FC% WFC WFC/C

Orioles 5.7% -35.3 -1.28

Other 29 Teams 5.4% 6.8 0.15

Data: Fangraphs, Pitch F/X, Average over 2011-2012

In looking at the league as a whole, we can see that the other 29 teams in the league on average achieved more success than not with the cut fastball, with a positive wFC linear weights value on the pitch. In fact, the cut fastball has scored better than the curveball league-wide over this period according to the linear weights.

Could what Duquette have realized is not so much how effective the cutter is in general at the major league level, but that his Orioles are inept at the pitch?

If so, then stopping to throw the pitch is certainly one attempt at a solution. It would seem to me another, more reasonable approach, would be to dial back on the use of the cutter while simultaneously seeking to find a resource that could be brought into the organization to help teach or refine throwing cut fastballs, at least to some pitchers at the major league level.

Britton touched on this when speaking about Rick Adair. The one size fits all approach.

[El Gordo]

Back on topic. Beyond the Box Score actually dove into Duquette's statements and found some pretty interesting tidbits:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/11/3754120/revisiting-dan-duquette-cutter-baltimore-orioles-sabermetrics

Read the entire article...as it's very interesting. But here's something that stands out:

Britton touched on this when speaking about Rick Adair. The one size fits all approach.

Rick Adair was not the right pitching coach for the O's, but he hasn't been here for a few years. Try and keep up.

[LookitsPuck]

Rick Adair was not the right pitching coach for the O's, but he hasn't been here for a few years. Try and keep up.

He was here for 3 years. And the one size fits all approach regarding the cutter is still present. Try and keep up.

[El Gordo]

He was here for 3 years. And the one size fits all approach regarding the cutter is still present. Try and keep up.

It doesn't fit al,l it fits young pitchers who need to develop FB command first. What's your problem with that?

[LookitsPuck]

My problem is if you're eliminating that pitch completely from guys that had success with it...then you're effectively undoing what has made them successful oftentimes in the first place. Arrieta is a perfect example. With the Orioles he was a fastball, sinker, curveball guy. With the Cubs he's a cutter, sinker, fastball guy. Most that have followed Arrieta's quick turnaround note the Cubs willingness to give Arrieta back his cutter.

The point is Bundy is following down the same path. Unfortunately in his situation the O's don't have the luxury of minor league options. So he's on the majors, effectiveness and pitch arsenal be damned.

[Malike]

My problem is if you're eliminating that pitch completely from guys that had success with it...then you're effectively undoing what has made them successful oftentimes in the first place. Arrieta is a perfect example. With the Orioles he was a fastball, sinker, curveball guy. With the Cubs he's a cutter, sinker, fastball guy. Most that have followed Arrieta's quick turnaround note the Cubs willingness to give Arrieta back his cutter.

The point is Bundy is following down the same path. Unfortunately in his situation the O's don't have the luxury of minor league options. So he's on the majors, effectiveness and pitch arsenal be damned.

I disagree that Bundy is following the same path. The article clearly states that he threw the cutter in the AFL and had discomfort, so they are going to make sure he's completely fine before he starts tossing it again. I'm fine with that.