Future or Go For It This Year?

[Aglets]

Are they? And what is "a lot"? My guess is that a 87-win playoff team is about a 8% of winning the World Series and a 100-win team is maybe 20%.

In the wildcard era, there have been 22 100 win teams.

Only the Yankees have won the World Series in this way in this era. So it's 2/22......not even 10%.

[Aglets]

I'm sure before the playoffs expanded that % was much higher.

EDIT - yea, before 1995 I have it as about 33/76 chance of a team winning the championship if they got 100 wins.

Interestingly enough, apparently there have been 8 100 win teams that didn't even make the playoffs in the game's history.

[osfan83]

In business, a dollar today is worth far more than a dollar tomorrow. We have time to figure out 2018...we have very little time to capitalize on 2016.

Back in 2011 someone might have said "who will possible play 1st for us in 2016? Who is going to be DH? And second base is a black hole, I see no way 2016 will be a good year.

Who knew 5 years ago Davis, Trumbo and Schoop would be significant pieces to a first place team in June 2016? I imagine that in 2018 we will have a player doing well that isn't even on our radar right now.

[DrungoHazewood]

In the wildcard era, there have been 22 100 win teams.

Only the Yankees have won the World Series in this way in this era. So it's 2/22......not even 10%.

Yea, but n=22 is microscopic. I think you'd be better off using an adjusted winning percentage and the log5 method to tease out an expected winning percentage.

[Phantom]

In business, a dollar today is worth far more than a dollar tomorrow.

But is a dollar today worth a hundred bucks in two years?

[sportsfan8703]

The real question is that are certain people going to be rooting for Ed Rod or the O's tomorrow?

[Redskins Rick]

The real question is that are certain people going to be rooting for Ed Rod or the O's tomorrow?

How any true Oriole fan can root for Ed Rod is beyond me.

I dont wish him ill will, but I be dang if I root for him, so I can say DD sucks.

[24fps]

How any true Oriole fan can root for Ed Rod is beyond me.

I dont wish him ill will, but I be dang if I root for him, so I can say DD sucks.

If EdRod does well, there will be a couple of posters more than happy to beat that dead horse a few more times. Too much is never enough when it comes to DD's supposed failures.

[weams]

How any true Oriole fan can root for Ed Rod is beyond me.

I dont wish him ill will, but I be dang if I root for him, so I can say DD sucks.

None will, he never played for the Orioles, so anyone rooting for him is simply an Eduardo Rodriquez fan all along. I wanted to root for him as an Oriole.

[Redskins Rick]

None will, he never played for the Orioles, so anyone rooting for him is simply an Eduardo Rodriquez fan all along. I wanted to root for him as an Oriole.

Drafted by the Orioles, developed by the Orioles, and played in their MIL system.

[crawjo]

The thing though is that the Orioles are really setting themselves up to be terrible in about 2-3 years. There's nothing in the farm system, and much of the current core is going to be in decline, even if they manage to keep them together. Obviously keeping Machado would help, but in 2018 you will be looking at a 33-year-old Adam Jones and a 32-year-old Chris Davis. And there's just so little help on the way. The only way they will be able to remain competitive is through free agency, which is a recipe for spiraling downwards very quickly.

I will say this: if the Orioles go into a slump in the next six weeks and are at .500 on the season, they should try and deal their assets for prospects, especially Trumbo, Wieters, and Britton, and maybe Tillman as well.

[Redskins Rick]

The thing though is that the Orioles are really setting themselves up to be terrible in about 2-3 years. There's nothing in the farm system, and much of the current core is going to be in decline, even if they manage to keep them together. Obviously keeping Machado would help, but in 2018 you will be looking at a 33-year-old Adam Jones and a 32-year-old Chris Davis. And there's just so little help on the way. The only way they will be able to remain competitive is through free agency, which is a recipe for spiraling downwards very quickly.

I will say this: if the Orioles go into a slump in the next six weeks and are at .500 on the season, they should try and deal their assets for prospects, especially Trumbo, Wieters, and Britton, and maybe Tillman as well.

DD said the other day, for all the so called experts saying the Oriole farm system was barren, was pretty much people that didn't know what they were talking about and didnt understand the MIL system.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So should we ride out the next two or three years of success and then go into full rebuild? I think DD and Buck keep the team in playoff contention till the end of their contracts. A lot of future success will depend on how well our scouting department has done the last few years and the next few.

[LookitsPuck]

DD said the other day, for all the so called experts saying the Oriole farm system was barren, was pretty much people that didn't know what they were talking about and didnt understand the MIL system.

Yeah, well Dan Duquette is full of it. He has a vested interest to have a different narrative.

[Frobby]

Two days out of every five, I am too.

So you don't enjoy games we win when a pitcher you don't like is on the mound?