Fix the SP, and you have a Playoff team

[LookitsPuck]

The results say the starting pitching is good enough.

I'd upgrade starters if possible, yes. But at what cost?

I'm wondering if bolstering the bullpen isn't a better choice. Ride out the starters until Sept 1 then carry a 16 man pitching staff so starters do not need to go deep into games.

Cheaper and easier then acquiring a better starting pitcher.

If you bolster the bullpen, Buck needs to have a quick hook with his starters in the 6th inning on. Possibly even in the 5th if necessary.

I'd like to see Oliver Drake called up and Ubaldo cut. We can't afford to have a guy like Duensing and Ubaldo both in the bullpen all the while babying Dylan Bundy...and playing down O'Day.

[OFFNY]

I am worried that Tillman's production isn't sustainable, and we have been far too reliant on him to stop losing streaks. After him there is no guy we can depend on to win the majority of the time. Tillman is 11-1 and that has basically been the difference between us and .500, even with our loaded offense. That scares me. What if Tillman gets hurt for any length of time or just slides back to his career norms?

Tillman had a bad game yesterday, and the Orioles still found a way to win. That's the other side of that coin (the Orioles finding ways to win, even when their best pitcher has a bad game.) He really wasn't the stopper yesterday, even though he was credited with the W.

I suspect that if Gausman continues to pitch reasonably well, the Orioles will start winning games when he pitches, also.

I think that currently, we're about one decent starting pitcher short right of remaining in contention for a playoff berth.

[LookitsPuck]

The Blue Jays have an elite offense. That pitch to Russell Martin was both Tillman and Wieters fault. He just threw a beauty where Wieters set up off the plate. And then the immediate next pitch Wieters called for it but moved more towards the middle of the plate. It was a poor pitch call that wasn't executed well at all.

Tulo's homer was just a good piece of hitting. That slider was down and away and Tulo golfed it. It might have gotten just a bit too much of the plate. But not a bad call...just needed to get a bit more bite on it to get it out of the strike zone.

Travis's homer was poor pitch sequencing. It was actually the same exact pitch that Russell Martin hit for that double. Wieters set up right down the pipe and called for a slider. Why? 3-2 count, he's already seen a ton of what you're offering. And a 3-2 slider right down the middle is rarely a good idea.

[25 Nuggets]

We really need to see what Gallardo does first and give Gausman and Wilson some more time.

Keep the ears open of course, but the trade market is awful right now.

[srock]

If you bolster the bullpen, Buck needs to have a quick hook with his starters in the 6th inning on. Possibly even in the 5th if necessary.

I'd like to see Oliver Drake called up and Ubaldo cut. We can't afford to have a guy like Duensing and Ubaldo both in the bullpen all the while babying Dylan Bundy...and playing down O'Day.

This would be the plan. Much easier on September 1. With enough guys riding the Norfolk shuttle, Buck is essentially doing it now. You have to pitching really well to get into the 7th inning these day.

[LookitsPuck]

We really need to see what Gallardo does first and give Gausman and Wilson some more time.

Keep the ears open of course, but the trade market is awful right now.

Agreed. Think the O's need to stand pat. The only meaningful upgrade (IMHO) would be Teheran. But it's going to require a king's ransom, and I just don't think the O's matchup well with them because they want ML ready talent. And teams in playoff contention don't give up ML ready talent.

[25 Nuggets]

Agreed. Think the O's need to stand pat. The only meaningful upgrade (IMHO) would be Teheran. But it's going to require a king's ransom, and I just don't think the O's matchup well with them because they want ML ready talent. And teams in playoff contention don't give up ML ready talent.

Apparently the Braves don't want to trade Teheran anyway, and I don't blame them with his 4.5 years of control left.

[srock]

Nice post. It's good to see facts. Fans are delusional if they feel this team is OK at SP.

These are facts, however, the conclusion the SP needs fixing to have a playoff team is dubious. The Orioles have the 2nd best record in the AL even with these pitching numbers.

The conclusion does not mirror reality.

Also, cherry picking ERA's for starting pitchers isn't the best metric. I do not think there is a gold standard for measuring the quality of your starting pithing. Defense and bullpen usage are big variables effecting the pitching. Lets look at a range of numbers for the entire pitching staff.

Total runs allowed is nice:

Orioles have allowed 302. League average is 306.

ERA+ 103. League average is 100. Slightly above average.

FIP .430. League average .421. Slightly below average.

WHIP 1.382. League average 1.322. Slightly below average.

H9 9.1. League average 8.8. Below average.

HR9 1.1. League average 1.2. Actually 4th best in the AL.

BB9 3.3. League average 3.0. Not good here.

SO9 7.6. League average 8.0. Below average.

Yes the bullpen and defense is helping the starters significantly, but this is how the team is built.

Yes I would upgrade the starting pitching. But its far from killing this team. The starters are just good enough to let this teams strengths prevail.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I think we're already a playoff team with the rotation as it is. I don't think they can win the WS with this rotation, though. If the title of this thread was, "Fix the Rotation, and you have a WS winning team," then I think more would agree with you.

This is exactly what I was going to come on and post.

[srock]

This is exactly what I was going to come on and post.

I think we're already a playoff team with the rotation as it is. I don't think they can win the WS with this rotation' date=' though. If the title of this thread was, "Fix the Rotation, and you have a WS winning team," then I think more would agree with you.[/quote']

Playoffs is a crap shoot.

It would be nice to a couple of lockdown starters for the playoffs, but in reality, this is not necessary. If you can get into the playoffs, you got a shot the ring.

Its more about getting hot at the right time.

[MurphDogg]

Win more games than the other teams in the AL East and we have a playoff team. We are doing that whether the pitching is fixed or not. Yeah, it would be nice to have better pitching. Hell, it would be nice to have better hitting, it is always nice to be better. But the Orioles are not precluded from success just because the pitching is only average.

[bpilktree]

The Mets offense is a terrible right now and they could use some offense. Although most teams in the hunt don't trade guys I wonder if they would be interested in Alverez for Colon. Wheeler is to be back in a few weeks so they would not need Colon in the rotation anymore. Colon is a guy that will give you innings and is pretty consistent and Alverez would give the Mets a little more punch. It would be them trading from their surplus and getting an area of need same with us.

[wildcard]

In the years that Buck and Dan have made it to the playoffs they have made adjustments mid season.

In 2012 they took Matusz (5.47 ERA) and Arrieta (6.13 ERA) out of the rotation in early July and inserted Tillman (9-3, 2.93 ERA) and Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA) in their place.

They also called up Manny to sure up the 3B defense on Aug 9th. On Aug 29 they added Saunders would went 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA.

In 2014 they pulled Jimenez from the rotation on July 5th. He only made 4 spot starts the rest of the season. They added Da Aza on Aug 30th. He has a 877 OPS the rest of the regular season.

So the O's taking Jimenez and Wright out of the rotation is about the norm for the O's in a playoff year. Inserting Gallardo and Worley or Despaigne or whoever is about par for the course.

[atomic]

Well, let's look at their starting rotations

Boston

David Price - 4.24 ERA, but last 8 games a 2.47 ERA

Steven Wright - 2.22 ERA

Rick Porcello - 3.76 ERA

Eduardo Rodriguez - 6.97 ERA

Clay Buchholz - 5.86 ERA

Toronto

Marcus Stroman - 5.23 ERA

R.A. Dickey - 4.08 ERA

Marco Estrada - 2.58 ERA

J.A. Happ - 3.41 ERA

Aaron Sanchez - 3.35 ERA

Baltimore

Chris Tillman - 3.11 ERA

Kevin Gausman - 4.14 ERA

Yovani Gallardo - 6.26 ERA, but off the DL and velocity is a bit better

Tyler Wilson - 4.16 ERA

Mike Wright/Ubaldo Jimenez - 6.12 ERA, 7.34 ERA

I think Toronto has the edge by far as they have 4 competent starters, 3 of which have been very effective. Aaron Sanchez will eventually be relegated to the bullpen to control his innings, but until then this is a very solid rotation.

Boston's rotation is actually on the rise. It looked incredibly shakey to start the season because David Price was bad. But he's back to being the David Price of old over the last ~2 months. Wright is having a Cy Young season. Porcello has been a solid #3. Their #4 and #5 are nothing to write home about. With that said, Eduardo Rodriguez is their wild card. If he ends up being ERod from last year, they're in a good spot. Apparently he's going back to his delivery from last year, so TBD.

The Orioles rotation is in flux. Tillman has been a very good #1 for the O's. Gausman has been poor lately (5.32 ERA in his last 8 starts, 887 OPS against). Tyler Wilson has been solid. But #4 and #5 have been a travesty. Hopefully Yovani can buoy the staff, but until he does so the Orioles have the worst rotation in the division by far...and nearly in all of MLB.

David Price has lost 3 out of his last 4 games. It is not like he is shutting people out now. The Red Sox pitching might be worse than ours. They will be competing for getting starters in trades.

[Aristotelian]

Playoffs is a crap shoot.

It would be nice to a couple of lockdown starters for the playoffs, but in reality, this is not necessary. If you can get into the playoffs, you got a shot the ring.

Its more about getting hot at the right time.

There are no guarantees, but surely you would want the most talented team possible before the games are played, and the Orioles certainly have holes to fix. It is possible to win without an elite SP, but it sure couldn't hurt to have one. That is not to say that I advocate selling the farm for Rich Hill.