The Seattle series, June 30 - July 3

[Frobby]

The O's come into Seattle as hot as they can be, winners of 7 straight and 19-8 in June, scoring 6.74 runs/game this month and tying the June homer record with one game to play. The Mariners are treading water, 39-39 and 9-18 in June. Here are the pitching matchups:

Tillman (10-1, 3.52) vs. Walker (3-6, 3.45)

Gausman (1-5, 3.93) vs. LeBlanc (0-0, 0.00)

Wilson (4-5, 4.50) vs. Paxton (1-3, 4.15)

Jimenez (5-7, 6.63) vs. Iwakuma (7-6, 4.34)

Taijuan Walker tends to be a feast or famine pitcher in his last six starts, he allowed a total of 1 run in three of the games, and 14 runs in the other three. He faced us on May 18, allowing 4 runs in 5 IP and losing 5-2. In three starts against us, he's 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA. Still, he's capable of shutdown games. Tillman has been a bit uneven lately and was hit hard his last time out. However, he has always been deadly against the team that traded him to the O's. He beat Walker in that May 18 game, allowing 2 R in 6.1 IP. For his career, he is 7-0 with a 2.96 ERA against the Mariners.

Wade LeBlanc started this year in AAA Buffalo, where he was dominating, and was called up by Seattle last week, throwing 6 shutout innings in his first outing. He has only pitched one game against the Orioles, and that was in 2010 when he pitched 6.1 innings and allowed 1 run, hardly relevant to tonight's game. Gausman had a bit of a rough June until dominating Tampa last Saturday in 7.2 shutout innings. He has never faced Seattle. So, this game is kind of an intriguing mystery.

James Paxton began the year in Tacoma, where he was just so-so, and was called back to the majors on June 1. This will be his 7th start, and he has been inconsistent. He hasn't faced the O's this year, and has one career start against them, allowing 2 runs in 4.1 IP. Wilson has been spotty for the O's of late. He lost to the Mariners on May 19, allowing 5 runs in 6 IP, 3 of which were scored in Wilson's final inning. He had one scoreless inning in relief against them last year.

Hisashi Iwakuma is having a middling season and a middling June. We haven't seen him this year, but he has been tough on us in the past, 1-2 with a 2.51 ERA. He usually gets deep into games and we will need to be patient with him. Jimenez was horrible up though mid-June, but managed two straight credible outings against the Padres. He got shelled by Seattle on May 17, allowing 6 R in 4.1 IP. In his career he is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA against them.

Seattle has a power offense that is 6th in runs scored and 3rd in homers despite playing in a pitcher's park. They have six players in double digits in homers -- Cruz (20), Cano (19), Seager (15), Lind (11), Leonsys Martin (11) and Dae-ho Lee (10). The team has a healthy 107 OPS+. Their bullpen is also very solid, 5th in the league in ERA at 3.27 (we are 2nd at 3.15), so it won't be as easy to erase deficits as it has been against some of the weaker bullpens we've seen lately.

Bottom line, this is a deceptively even series. The Mariners have underperformed their Pythag considerably, and we've overperformed ours. The Mariners beat us 2 out of 3 in Baltimore in mid-May. I think our bats will need to stay hot to win this series, because the Mariners can score.

[Aristotelian]

Seattle looked really good against us in the first series, although the difference in the series was a long wind-swept opposite field popup by Lind that somehow barely made it over the wall, helped by an awkward jump by Rickard. They have a lefty-heavy lineup (Cano, Seager, Smith, Lind, and Aoki, plus the righty Cruz) that matches up well against our RHP rotation and bullpen. Their lineup is going to wear out our pitchers and our guys will have to stay engaged with every pitch, no mistakes. I know the M's are not playing as well right now although I have not followed them closely enough to know why.

[esmd]

Tillman seems to always pitch well against Seattle, so there's that. Gausman, for as uneven as he's been and as much as a lot of posters here get on him, has an ERA under 4.00. Not too shabby in this day and age. Wilson and Jimenez are a crap shoot. The winning streak has to end sometime, but I'm hoping for a split at worst. 3 or 4 would be sweet!

[Frobby]

I should have mentioned, LeBlanc was acquired from Toronto last week for a PTBNL or cash considerations. He's a bit of a journeyman (6 teams in 9 years), but threw to a 1.71 ERA in 14 starts at Buffalo before the trade.

Both LeBlanc and Paxton are lefties.

[Redskins Rick]

Tillman seems to always pitch well against Seattle, so there's that. Gausman, for as uneven as he's been and as much as a lot of posters here get on him, has an ERA under 4.00. Not too shabby in this day and age. Wilson and Jimenez are a crap shoot. The winning streak has to end sometime, but I'm hoping for a split at worst. 3 or 4 would be sweet!

Not hard to figure out his motivation factor.

[ShaneDawg85]

Always satisfied with a split in a four game series, and I honestly wouldn't be shocked or horribly disappointed losing 3/4. Games in Safeco always seem to be low scoring or we don't score at all. It's always a tough series against Seattle, hopefully we at least get the split.

[OregonBird]

I can't wait to get there on Saturday, my little boys are so excited. We will be right behind the O's dugout, you can't miss my O's Hawaiian shirt. I've got to figure out my hat game though. Maybe we will be on camera again this year.

I'm a little bummed that I get Wilson and Jimenez as the SPs.

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[Frobby]

At Safeco in recent years:

2012: 5-1

2013: 1-2

2014: 3-1

2015: 1-2

[fdepascual]

I can't wait to get there on Saturday, my little boys are so excited. We will be right behind the O's dugout, you can't miss my O's Hawaiian shirt. I've got to figure out my hat game though. Maybe we will be on camera again this year.

I'm a little bummed that I get Wilson and Jimenez as the SPs.

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Lol, I will keep my atenttion, move your hands to your forum buds

[callahan09]

I like our chances in every matchup except Sunday (Jimenez vs Iwakuma).

[isestrex]

At Safeco in recent years:

2012: 5-1

2013: 1-2

2014: 3-1

2015: 1-2

If we do well against the Mariners, we make the playoffs.

Got it

[Machado13]

This series worries me. I know Seattle is not a juggernaut but it's in the middle of always tough west coast road trip, Os giving up too many runs as the winning streak keeps going...

I would be happy with 2-2. 3-1 would be amazing going into LA. They will need to pitch better. I don't see Seattle giving up as many runs as SD did.

[sportsfan8703]

Didn't Iwakuma pitch a no hitter against us last year? We'll need to revenge that. Chen was always money in SEA it felt like. Tillman needs to set the tone tonight with a good outing. Rest the pen and we'll be alright. A lefty reliever would be nice for this series, Mac has gotten hammered by LH's this year. Kim has to sit vs two LH's again. Wonder if Buck starts him one game, especially against Leblanc since Paxton throws hard.

I'm thinking 2-2. Our starters need to go deep in games with our 6th/7th relievers scuffling.

Leblanc throws a lot of cutters and has huge reverse splits. LH's mash him. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=5221&position=P&season=0

[Moshagge3]

A lefty reliever would be nice for this series, Mac has gotten hammered by LH's this year.

That Cano-Cruz-Seager stretch of the order is going to pose a lot of difficulty. The Orioles don't have the pieces to mix and match here. Assuming the O's can get 6 innings from their starters (big assumption, I know), I hope Buck will put Brach in against those guys even if they are due up in the 7th one night and in the 8th another night. I was really hoping Oliver Drake would show something positive in his time up, because the lack of a lefty specialist has been a hole for a while.

[Machado13]

Just win Sunday and salvage one please.