Is Arrieta our best pitching prospect???

[Tony-OH]

Tillman has to be considered number one overall right now, but Arrieta has quickly risen to the top of the pitching prospects with the staggering numbers he's putting up in Frederick. Spoone also gets put inot the mix and Hernandez is doing a good job of getting his name in that talk as well. Add in Berken, Liz, Erbe, Britton, and maybe even Mariotti and Bergeson and man, that's a lot of good looking arms.

As for Penn, even if he qualified as a rookie, I'm not sure he'd still be among the top five arms in the system. His breaking pitch has never really come around and I'm starting to beleive his future might be in the pen.

[Sports Guy]

Tillman has to be considered number one overall right now, but Arrieta has quickly risen to the top of the pitching prospects with the staggering numbers he's putting up in Frederick. Spoone also gets put inot the mix and Hernandez is doing a good job of getting his name in that talk as well. Add in Berken, Liz, Erbe, Britton, and maybe even Mariotti and Bergeson and man, that's a lot of good looking arms.

As for Penn, even if he qualified as a rookie, I'm not sure he'd still be among the top five arms in the system. His breaking pitch has never really come around and I'm starting to beleive his future might be in the pen.

Tony, have you seen either Arrieta or Tillman in person? If so, what were/are your impressions of them?

[Tony-OH]

Tony, have you seen either Arrieta or Tillman in person? If so, what were/are your impressions of them?

I've seen both this year and both are very impressive. Tillman didn't have his command the night i saw him but the stuff id there. Actually, their stuff is very close. both sit at 93-94 MPH with plus breaking balls. I didn't see a change up from Tillman but Arrieta's has some drop to it, but he didn't throw many.

Looking at Arrieta's stuff, I'm shocked he lasted to the fifth round, even if it was because of signability. Command is the key for both. Once they start to command their stuff consistently, they'll be in the big leagues. The stuff is a slam dunk.

[Tony-OH]

I'm not sure how that can be held against him... when he was brought up in 2005, he was 20 years old going through a dead arm period...

When he came up in 2006, it was the end of the season, and he had a horrible month...

Even if the injury was not considered 'major', it was major enough to limit Penn to 40IP last year... clearly that would hamper your development, and take some time to rebound from..

It is early May, and has pitched more IP than he did last year... will be 23 all of this season.. has less than 60IP at the Major League level.. how can he not be considered a prospect?

Why is Tillman considered to have higher upside, for what he has accomplished in 31IP at Bowie this year, vs what Penn accomplished in 110IP in Bowie in 2005, and 87IP in Ottawa in 2006?

Penn goes on a 5 start run, he will be in the bigs at 23...

Tillman is likely to spend the remainder of 2008 in Bowie at age 20... will likely spend large parts of 2009 in Norfolk at age 21...

Tillman has an edge in age that can not be discounted.. but he has to prove himself over more IP in AA, and AAA to be considered better to me...

There is little reason to think that Penn will not resemble the pitcher that allowed less than a hit per IP, and a k per IP as this season progresses.

Chris,

Quite simply you are going off of pure numbers and not what the pitchers look like now. Penn's breaking ball is no where near the quality of Tillman's although Penn's changeup is more mature. It would be hard for any scout to look at the two pitchers side by side and not think Tillman was the better prospect, and that's if they were the same age. When you take into consideration that Tillman is only 20-years old, I think you will be in the minority with the opinion that Penn is a better prospect than Tillman.

I think Penn still has potential, but I'm starting to think he may have a better chance of becoming a Trevor Hoffman type closer than a top flight starter. Penn is still a prospect, but there would be few people who would consider him the top pitcher in the system.

[Frobby]

I have to back Tony here. When he was up in the big leagues, I never saw him commnad the curve ball. And he really hasn't been the same pitcher since he had his bone spurs removed. I hope he rebounds but he has not been that impressive this year.

[LookinUp]

Hopefully Penn is more patient in his development than many of us are here. I want to see how he's pitching in August, because I do expect improvement. Maybe his best ML role this year, either way, would be in the bullpen. I'd hate to see him pitch too many innings yet again.

[clarence]

I would be quite happy if he became a Trevor Hoffman type closer.

[Three Run Homer]

If you're looking for upside, then Tillman is still our best prospect. I think he's got the best shot at being a #1 starter of anyone in the system.

If you're looking for the pitcher who has the best bet at being a good major league starting pitcher, then I think it's Arietta. I also think Arietta will get to the majors faster even though Tillman is currently pitching at a higher level.

The good news is that both of these guys look like studs, and as Tony points out, we've got a ton of good arms behind them in the minors...not to mention all the good young arms already in the majors (Albers, Johnson, Loewen, Olson, and Cabrera).

[Tony-OH]

Here is a link to a quote from Stockstill saying he believed Penn had a very high quality curve... if his curve is not currently at that level, could that just be a matter of getting IPs and becoming comfortable throwing it again?

Also, I believe back in 2005, 2006 he was considered to have the best change-up in the system... would that still be accurate?

At one point, we we were talking about a guy throwing 95mph, with a top changeup, and high quality curve.. who had achieved results in AA, and AAA at young ages...

Would think that since he is only 23, that he should be able to reach that level again... but end of the day, if Tillman and Arrieta are ahead of him... that is a good thing.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/060222top100b.html

81. HAYDEN PENN, rhp, Orioles

"The fastball's his best pitch, because he can throw it at any time and to all parts of the zone with command. But he's also got an awfully good curveball."

--Orioles farm director David Stockstill

I would respectfully disagree with Stockstill on Penn's curveball. Although he ccan flash a good curveball, he's never shown consistent command or sharp break of the pitch. It rolls up there a little too much for my taste and from what I've heard from multiple sources, not just one who's has a vested in making Penn have value. Now, that doesn't mean he can't improve the pitch or that he won't be a good major league pitcher when it's all said and done, but for now, you will be hard pressed to find any scout to agree with you that Penn is a better prospect than Tillman.

[LookinUp]

I'm not trying to start anything but what do you mean by this? Do you think Penn has been unfairly characterized in this thread. Who shows impatience with him?

Don't sweat it. I probably implied more than was I was trying to say. I just view Penn as a talented guy who was advanced beyond his years but suffered a couple of setbacks. He'll come back into his own, I hope, but that's not a fast process. I just hope people don't get down on him because he's only been "good" so far.

For the record, I think Arietta, Tillman and Liz are all better pitching prospects at this point, and I think others like Hernandez, Erbe and Spoon may also be. That doesn't diminish the potential value I think Penn could have though.