If we miss the playoffs this year, trade Manny and sign Schoop

[Frobby]

Britton was drafted before Andy got here. Wieters was before Andy as well. So Schoop, Davis, Machado, Jones, Hardy is 5. ANd I would give Buck credit for Davis.

You are right about Britton and Wieters, though Wieters was signed after Andy arrived and that was not an easy process, so I think he gets partial credit there. I don't know why Buck should get the credit for Davis -- I'm sure he gave Andy his opinion of the guy, but Andy made the trade.

[LookitsPuck]

Maybe I'm naive, but I have faith Duquette will find a way to add good quality starting pitching next year without trading Manny. But like I said, maybe I'm naive...

Ubaldo, Gallardo and Miley say hello.

[Frobby]

Back on topic, what would an extension for Schoop look like? I don't think he's a guy you make a 10-year commitment to. Maybe something like this:

Arb 1: $3.5 mm

Arb 2: $6.0 mm

Arb 3: $9.0 mm

FA 1: $12.5 mm

FA 2: $15.0 mm

FA 3: $15.0 mm

FA 4: Team option at $17 mm, $2 mm buyout

So, that's 6/$63 mm, possibly becoming 7/$78 mm.

How does that seem? Looking around the league, it might be a little too generous if Schoop flattens out from here, but it could be cheap if Schoop takes it up another notch.

[weams]

Here is the formula for a Manny trade. Two MLB ready starting pitchers. One MLB ready position player. Three top 100 prospects.

Until after next season.

[TINSTAAPP]

I would much rather see them trade Britton. And if the Orioles trade Manny in the off-season while still having Ubaldo, Gallardo and Miley on the 25-man roster, I don't want to see any threads complaining about attendance ever again.

[TINSTAAPP]

It's a mixed bag for both of them. The core of the team was acquired on Andy's watch -- 6 of the 8 position players, plus their most reliable starting pitcher and their dominant closer. They've been lasting contributors who the fans identify with as the core of the team. Duquette's contributions have been more episodic, acquiring guys who have a good year or two and then are replaced.

You could argue that Andy knew how to acquire core pieces but didn't know how to add the complementary pieces needed to win. Or, you could argue he simply wasn't here long enough to see his labors bear fruit -- Manny and Schoop were still in the minors, Tillman hadn't figure things out yet, Davis had just arrived and Jones hadn't fully developed yet. Perhaps if he'd stuck around the team would have had as much success or more than they'd had under Duquette, or perhaps not.

To be honest, they're both mediocre GMs at best. It worked out well from 2012-2014 because their strengths were perfect compliments to each other's weaknesses. MacPhail would never have been able to acquire the complimentary pieces to put this team over the top and DD certainly never would have been able to rebuild the Orioles like MacPhail was able to do.

[Ohfan67]

I don't get the "If we miss the playoffs" part. The strategy should depend on a handful of September games? Toronto and Boston could tank and the Orioles could play 500 ball and win the division. Medium and long-term strategy shouldn't depend on something so fleeting and possibly random.

[El Gordo]

Here is the formula for a Manny trade. Two MLB ready starting pitchers. One MLB ready position player. Three top 100 prospects.

Until after next season.

It's the Bedard trade squared.

[Frobby]

Here is the formula for a Manny trade. Two MLB ready starting pitchers. One MLB ready position player. Three top 100 prospects.

Until after next season.

I am struggling to think of the last time a player of roughly Manny's caliber (or anywhere close) was traded two years before free agency. I guess it would be Miguel Cabrera:

December 4, 2007: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo.

At the time, Maybin was BA's #10 prospect. Miller had been the #10 prospect the year before, and had lost rookie status by starting 13 games in 2007. None of the others was that highly regarded or ended up having much success. I'd certainly want a much bigger haul for Manny, but I am not sure any team would pay the price you are suggesting.

[esmd]

I am struggling to think of the last time a player of roughly Manny's caliber (or anywhere close) was traded two years before free agency. I guess it would be Miguel Cabrera:

At the time, Maybin was BA's #10 prospect. Miller had been the #10 prospect the year before, and had lost rookie status by starting 13 games in 2007. None of the others was that highly regarded or ended up having much success. I'd certainly want a much bigger haul for Manny, but I am not sure any team would pay the price you are suggesting.

This just goes to show why you shouldn't do it. You're trading a proven superstar for potential that is likely never to equal out to what you're giving way. Keep Manny and build the team around him. Or trade him for established major league players if you can't sign him.

[Aristotelian]

I would much rather see them trade Britton. And if the Orioles trade Manny in the off-season while still having Ubaldo, Gallardo and Miley on the 25-man roster, I don't want to see any threads complaining about attendance ever again.

Better yet, how about Tillman and/or Kim. If we decide that next year is not the year, these guys only have a year of team control that we would be giving up. If we are going to retool, these would be the guys to look at first.

Tillman is coming off a very good year but I would not necessarily trust him to repeat it. Still could be very valuable for teams looking for pitching in a down free agent market. I think we could get a good return for him, while leaving Gausman and Bundy at the top of our rotation.

I love Kim, but his defense hurts us. As much as his OBP fills an important role, he is not irreplaceable. Like Tillman, we would only be losing one year of service time. Some team may look at his OBP and be willing to overpay.

This scenario would allow us to keep Manny and Britton while getting some prospects back in the system. Then we would be prepared to go all-in in 2018 or one last hurrah--or go full rebuild. In this scenario, you would have Ubaldo, Gallardo, Hardy, and Miley all with contracts expiring, and you could really decide to go one way or the other.

[weams]

I am struggling to think of the last time a player of roughly Manny's caliber (or anywhere close) was traded two years before free agency. I guess it would be Miguel Cabrera:

At the time, Maybin was BA's #10 prospect. Miller had been the #10 prospect the year before, and had lost rookie status by starting 13 games in 2007. None of the others was that highly regarded or ended up having much success. I'd certainly want a much bigger haul for Manny, but I am not sure any team would pay the price you are suggesting.

I guess he has to stay then. Because you can't sell him for less.

[FanSince88]

Absolutely not. Trading Manny is the worst thing the Orioles could possibly do. He's not the guy you trade, he's the guy you build your franchise around. He should be extended (as I've said before, if they have $161 million to throw at Chris Davis, they have the money to extend Manny -- and if they don't, they chose the wrong guy). Trade Adam Jones. Trade Chris Davis (even if you have to eat most of the contract to get anything useful back). Trade Britton. Trade whoever you want to trade. But don't trade Manny. If you do that, you're giving up. And you're rolling the dice that the guys you get back will be what you hope they'll be. It's highly unlikely any of them will be anything close to Manny.

This is an interesting alternate strategy. And I wouldn't necessarily oppose it. But I doubt the haul for any one of these guys individually (except maybe Britton) will be very impressive. Maybe we get a B prospect and minor league depth for Jones. We might be able to score someone big with Britton if we're lucky, but it's not as sure a bet as dealing MM. A Davis trade would be a salary dump, and I wouldn't necessarily oppose that if it enables a Manny or Schoop signing, but it would require PA and DD to eat a huge bowl of crow which they won't do.

If getting rid of CD's contract was a realistic option, I wouldn't be so averse to keeping Manny around and/or signing him. But I don't see any way that happens.

[FanSince88]

I like a rotation of Tillman Bundy and Gausman, with Gallardo and Miley at 4 and 5. A decent hitting good fielding RF would be an upgrade over Trumbo. We can sign a stop gap C who will give us Wieters producton. And there are a number of FA DH possibilities this year.

Tillman could easily revert back to his 2015 form, especially if this shoulder issue lingers. Bundy has never gone through an entire season as a starter and is injury-prone. Gausman is looking like the next Jeremy Guthrie, which is fine for what it is, I guess. If there were any chance that Harvey could be a contributor between now and 2018, I might feel better about our SP situation. But there's no way he sees any ML action before September 2018.

[FanSince88]

I guess he has to stay then. Because you can't sell him for less.

If the Yankees were able to get such a big return for each of their relievers and an old Beltran, I don't see any reason why we can't get a big treasure chest for Manny, too.