Would you sign Tillman for 5/$75 mm this offseason?

[TradeAngelos]

Chris Tillman is making $6.225 mm this season, and I figure he'll make about $10 mm next season in arbitration. After that, he's a free agent. I figure he'd be worth $16-20 mm/yr on the free agent market, depending on how his 2017 season goes.

So, would you sign him for 5/$75 mm this offseason? (Poll coming.)

I love you Frobby, but you are out of you mind if you think we are getting Tillman for 15m a year. Yes I know he has a year of Arb left, but that will be what 10-12m?

The starting point is around 20m. Have you seen the price of pitching lately? You think Tillman is less valuable than Chen??

[weams]

Hell, even sign Britton. 4/$40 -- at least they'll be more likely to get their money's worth.

Try 5/65

[weams]

Therein lies the rub. Assuming his shoulder is fine, this would be a very team friendly deal. I'd wait for free agency if it were me and I had >$15MM already in the bank.

5/$75 would be a steal given the recent market for starting pitching. Maybe the Orioles get him around that price for buying out the arb year and home team discount.

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Of course.

[weams]

Sign Machado.

Sign Schoop.

Got a spare 425 million lying around?

[Ripken]

Yep. With Bundy and Gausman that's hope. Reasonable bullpen options, too.

Take the Wieters money + Alvarez money + Jimenez/Gallardo/Miley/Hardy money in 2017 + whatever small change is around to extend Manny and add a starter and COF.

Try to keep Trumbo.

Hope for Sisco, and a few other parts to chip in.

[LookitsPuck]

Yes.* He's 28. Will be 29 at the start of next season. In that 5 year deal scenario, he'll be 33 at the end of that contract. Certainly manageable.

*As long as his shoulder is OK. I really worry about shoulder issues in throwing arms.

[Going Underground]

Will the Orioles go five years?

"History tells us that any [free-agent contract] over three years is a bad investment supposedly on starting pitching," Showalter said. "So, a lot of these clubs pay five years to get three or pay seven to get four. We're not going to do that. This is bad business for everybody. So, we really have to develop our own pitchers for the most part to do it right."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-buck-showalter-defends-clubs-current-pitching-staff-20151212-story.html

[LookitsPuck]

Will the Orioles go five years?

"History tells us that any [free-agent contract] over three years is a bad investment supposedly on starting pitching," Showalter said. "So, a lot of these clubs pay five years to get three or pay seven to get four. We're not going to do that. This is bad business for everybody. So, we really have to develop our own pitchers for the most part to do it right."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-buck-showalter-defends-clubs-current-pitching-staff-20151212-story.html

Well they went 4 for Ubaldo Jimenez of all people. And they went 4 on Gallardo before he failed his physical. So, I think they would make an exception for a known commodity.

[crawjo]

I don't think the odds of Tillman being effective through a five-year deal are very good, so I voted no.

[Can_of_corn]

Well they went 4 for Ubaldo Jimenez of all people. And they went 4 on Gallardo before he failed his physical. So, I think they would make an exception for a known commodity.

Wasn't Gallardo for three before the physical?

[esmd]

Therein lies the rub. Assuming his shoulder is fine, this would be a very team friendly deal. I'd wait for free agency if it were me and I had >$15MM already in the bank.

Agreed, I don't think personally that 5/75 gets it done. Tillman is a better pitcher than guys who got 5/80 and 5/90 in FA this past offseason. I think it'll take at least that to get him extended. And for the record, I'd have no problems if they extended him for somewhere between 5/80 and 5/90. I'd still do that all day long and twice on Sunday, because the price is only going to go up.

[sportsfan8703]

Chen got around 6/90. If Tillman posts another year like this one he could be looking at Porcello money, 20+ a year. 6/100 would be a really solid offseason offer if the O's wanted to sign him LT.

[Frobby]

I love you Frobby, but you are out of you mind if you think we are getting Tillman for 15m a year. Yes I know he has a year of Arb left, but that will be what 10-12m?

The starting point is around 20m. Have you seen the price of pitching lately? You think Tillman is less valuable than Chen??

If Tillman stays healthy and has a good year in 2017, he'll get more than $15 mm/yr. I already said in the OP he'd probably get $16-20 mm/yr. But he's a year away from that, has the risk of poor performance or injury, etc., so 5/$75 mm seemed like a reasonable contract to propose in the poll, even if Tillman might not accept.

[Can_of_corn]

Chen got around 6/90. If Tillman posts another year like this one he could be looking at Porcello money, 20+ a year. 6/100 would be a really solid offseason offer if the O's wanted to sign him LT.

Keep in mind that Chen was a free agent while Tillman still has one year of team control.

[Beef Supreme]

Tillman's a little younger, and has demonstrated he can have success in the AL East and at OPACY. You're not having to guess how he will adjust to a new environment. In Gallardo's case, there had been a noticeable dip in his velocity and IP/start that were part of the concern.

But I don't mean to suggest that there would be no risk with Tillman. His 2015 performance and his current bursitis reinforce that risk.

Tillman would be younger by one year than were Gallardo and Ubaldo. A little younger, sure, but not enough to make a difference.