Tim Kurkjian On Whether Orioles Should Trade Manny Machado

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, esmd said:

How about Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez, Brock Stewart, Imani Abdullah, and Mitchell Hanson from the Dodgers?

I'm a poor excuse for an armchair GM, I know, but I like the framework laid out of top two prospects, one more in top 10, two more in top 20.

The Dodgers have both a very good 3B, whom they just resigned, and very good SS. Turner was worth 4.1fWAR in 2015, 5.6fWAR in 2016 and already 2.1fWAR this year. Seager was worth 7.5fWAR last year and 2.0fWAR so far this year. Machado may be better than Turner, but nowhere near enough to give up that kind of package.

[FlipTheBird]

4 hours ago, esmd said:

How about Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez, Brock Stewart, Imani Abdullah, and Mitchell Hanson from the Dodgers?

I'm a poor excuse for an armchair GM, I know, but I like the framework laid out of top two prospects, one more in top 10, two more in top 20.

The Dodgers are probably the best if if the Orioles ever decide to move Machado. Lord knows they almost certainly wouldn't want to trade him in division, even if he wound up coming back to the East anyway as a FA.

LA has the assets and the cash required (given that any team that traded for him would likely try to negotiate an extension right away, to maximize the value of their purchase).

Also helps that they have a bevy of well-regarded prospects. And, yes, any discussion would start at the very least with Cody Bellinger up top.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

The Dodgers are probably the best if if the Orioles ever decide to move Machado. Lord knows they almost certainly wouldn't want to trade him in division, even if he wound up coming back to the East anyway as a FA.

LA has the assets and the cash required (given that any team that traded for him would likely try to negotiate an extension right away, to maximize the value of their purchase).

Also helps that they have a bevy of well-regarded prospects. And, yes, any discussion would start at the very least with Cody Bellinger up top.

Where is he going to play?

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Where is he going to play?

Well I'm not advocating dealing him to the Dodgers tomorrow. I'm thinking more in the offseason, when everyone's got more time to move other pieces around.

[crawjo]

17 hours ago, El Gordo said:

The thing about fantasy baseball is you don't have to fill the seats. An 86-88 WC team does that better than a rebuild. 

And then what happens in 2019? If the Orioles don't do something to rebuild the farm system now, they are looking at a very, very long period of non-competitiveness. You take the hit now so that you can return to relevancy more quickly. That's the strategy.

[crawjo]

18 hours ago, backwardsk said:

People should go on record on what packages they'd want in return.

What's realistic?  What will a contender give up?  

 

I think you need, as part of the package, one of the prospects to be a consensus pick for among the best prospects in baseball. (I'd say in the top 20 in the game, at a minimum.) Then you need probably another top-100 prospect, and then you need one or two more guys with upside who are not as highly ranked. That would be my minimum.

[El Gordo]

Just now, crawjo said:

And then what happens in 2019? If the Orioles don't do something to rebuild the farm system now, they are looking at a very, very long period of non-competitiveness. You take the hit now so that you can return to relevancy more quickly. That's the strategy.

That's a simplistic idea. Winning the WS would do more for attendence than the hit on attendence from a rebuild.

[crawjo]

By the way, it would never happen but I would absolutely trade Machado to the Yankees for a bushel of their prospects. They probably prefer to have Gleyber Torres play third anyway, but if not, I would do it in a heartbeat. The Yankees have a ton of great talent in the minors, some of whom are blocked and nearly Major League ready. 

[crawjo]

Just now, El Gordo said:

That's a simplistic idea. Winning the WS would do more for attendence than the hit on attendence from a rebuild.

And what do you think is the likelihood that the Orioles can win the World Series in the next two years? I'd put the odds at maybe 2-3 percent, tops. 

[Pheasants]

4 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I think you need, as part of the package, one of the prospects to be a consensus pick for among the best prospects in baseball. (I'd say in the top 20 in the game, at a minimum.) Then you need probably another top-100 prospect, and then you need one or two more guys with upside who are not as highly ranked. That would be my minimum.

I'd start by position, not just placing.  We need to get back an expected (or actual) ace pitcher and a top-ranked shortstop (hopefully both in the top 20 or 30 for MLB) and then get some others.  Among actuals: If Detroit had some minor leaguers, I might have Verlander in the mix, though right now he isn't pitching like an ace.  San Francisco might be shopping Cueto. Vargas (KC), Leake (StL) and deGrom (NYM) are all doing well for teams with losing records.

[crawjo]

1 minute ago, Pheasants said:

I'd start by position, not just placing.  We need to get back an expected (or actual) ace pitcher and a top-ranked shortstop (hopefully both in the top 20 or 30 for MLB) and then get some others.  Among actuals: If Detroit had some minor leaguers, I might have Verlander in the mix, though right now he isn't pitching like an ace.  San Francisco might be shopping Cueto. Vargas (KC), Leake (StL) and deGrom (NYM) are all doing well for teams with losing records.

That's fair. I wouldn't be worried about position, just about potential impact. Beyond Dylan Bundy, I don't see a lot on our roster that will be a part of a next contending team after this current rebuild. I suppose we would not prioritize a first baseman since Davis is going to be occupying that spot for awhile. Beyond that, I'd just be looking for the best possible talent. 

[FlipTheBird]

2 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I'd start by position, not just placing.  We need to get back an expected (or actual) ace pitcher and a top-ranked shortstop (hopefully both in the top 20 or 30 for MLB) and then get some others.  Among actuals: If Detroit had some minor leaguers, I might have Verlander in the mix, though right now he isn't pitching like an ace.  San Francisco might be shopping Cueto. Vargas (KC), Leake (StL) and deGrom (NYM) are all doing well for teams with losing records.

Heavens, no. if you trade Machado, it's the start of a rebuild. You don't want guys in their 30s coming back. Or guys that are making any real money, honestly.

You can certainly trade for a highly-touted young pitcher, but he's got to be both highly-touted and young and controllable.

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, crawjo said:

That's fair. I wouldn't be worried about position, just about potential impact. Beyond Dylan Bundy, I don't see a lot on our roster that will be a part of a next contending team after this current rebuild. I suppose we would not prioritize a first baseman since Davis is going to be occupying that spot for awhile. Beyond that, I'd just be looking for the best possible talent. 

A. There is no current rebuild.

B. Guys that aren't Dylan Bundy on the active roster that could remain contributing pieces for a long while (if the O's so chose) Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini. Rickard is under control for a good while, but I don't see him as much more than a 4th outfielder.

[crawjo]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

Heavens, no. if you trade Machado, it's the start of a rebuild. You don't want guys in their 30s coming back. Or guys that are making any real money, honestly.

You can certainly trade for a highly-touted young pitcher, but he's got to be both highly-touted and young and controllable.

Yeah, I didn't notice that the poster was advocating acquiring a veteran pitcher. No way. Prospects are the thing. They need to be young, cheap, and under team control for a long time. 

[crawjo]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

A. There is no current rebuild.

B. Guys that aren't Dylan Bundy on the active roster that could remain contributing pieces for a long while (if the O's so chose) Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini. Rickard is under control for a good while, but I don't see him as much more than a 4th outfielder.

Right. The moment they trade Machado, the rebuild is under way. That's what I meant by "current." I forgot Mancini. You can count him as part of the next contending team. Gausman and Schoop would have to be extended or signed as free agents to still be on the team when the club was competitive again (following a Machado trade).