Building the 2018 team

[Ohfan67]

Just now, wildcard said:

You went on to say " The idea that the O's will invest in high priced starters is about as realistic as most of the other ideas to immediately improve the team"  

I don't agree that the O's ownership has any intention to over spend on FA starters nor do I believe the very good major league FA starters will sign to play in Camden Yard.

I just did a post of a scenario that shows the O's 40M below their current payroll for next year if certain things are done.  I can see the O's using the money to trade for a starter with a big salary.   Like a salary dump.    Like they did with Trumbo.   That is more in the way  I think the O's would go into next year. 

I was alluding to many of the very unrealistic ideas (based on O's history) of improving the team in the short term. I was joking around. Of course nobody thinks the O's will spend on the top FA starters, but the money may be available if they changed their tune. That's all I was pointing out. I think the scenario you pose is much more likely...they take on a mid-tier type salary dump starter in a trade. That certainly fits the recent pattern. 

[Lucky_13]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So now we're taking a realistic thread about what 2018 is going to look like and turning it into a fantasy baseball video game thread?  

No disrespect.  

True forgot what thread I was in for a second. Scratch trading Machado if you want to compete next year. Although I'd argue you could trade Britton and Brach for major league ready talent that could help next year and beyond. Just looking at teams in need of Bullpen help: 

Nationals - Fedde fills a SP spot, Andrew Stevenson is projected MLB regular OF 

Twins - Their top prospect is a SS Nick Gordon who is close to ready, they have a number of close pitchers

Astros - Top Level Farm system with a number of infield prospect. 3B J.D Davis in AA could be a guy to target   

The Orioles have proven that they can develop relievers and they have some money to spend. They could trade for MLB ready talent and be competitive next year. 

[DirtyBird]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Who else can we trade?  

I mentioned it in another thread, but I think Trumbo for Asdrubal Cabrerra would be a good trade.

We would get Trumbo off the books, eliminate the redundancy we have with him, Mancini and Davis and get a stop gap SS.

They would open up a spot to promote their top SS prospects, add a decent experienced bat for when Duda and Bruce either get traded or move along in FA at end of season.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

True forgot what thread I was in for a second. Scratch trading Machado if you want to compete next year. Although I'd argue you could trade Britton and Brach for major league ready talent that could help next year and beyond. Just looking at teams in need of Bullpen help: 

Nationals - Fedde fills a SP spot, Andrew Stevenson is projected MLB regular OF 

Twins - Their top prospect is a SS Nick Gordon who is close to ready, they have a number of close pitchers

Astros - Top Level Farm system with a number of infield prospect. 3B J.D Davis in AA could be a guy to target   

The Orioles have proven that they can develop relievers and they have some money to spend. They could trade for MLB ready talent and be competitive next year. 

It would be tough to compete next year without Britton and Brach.   I think they keep Brach.

[Lucky_13]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It would be tough to compete next year without Britton and Brach.   I think they keep Brach.

Yeah it would be risky but you have to trade value to get value. Other than Castillo I don't think any of the other free agents would get you something to help win next year.

[DirtyBird]

I don't see the value in relievers if you don't have adequate starters or an efficient lineup.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I don't see the value in relievers if you don't have adequate starters or an efficient lineup.

O's went to the playoffs with poor starters and great relievers.   The O's have  been part of the trend of raising the importance the pen.

[FanSince88]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

As many have pointed out in other threads, the Orioles have some serious cash coming off the books next year. If they have the same amount of cash to spend next year, then they could shock folks and sign a good starting pitcher (and yes, it would be a shock  ). A shock...but very possible. 

Just one extra "good" starting pitcher is not nearly enough.  We don't even have any passable AAA starting pitchers in our minor leagues, let alone a competent ML SP.  

We need at least 3, probably 4, additional major league competent starting pitchers next year if we want to content.  They don't have to be all-stars, just 4.5 ERA or lower.  However, that will cost $10 million AAV apiece.  

[DirtyBird]

Just now, wildcard said:

O's went to the playoffs with poor starters and great relievers.   The O's have  been part of the trend of raising the importance the pen.

Losing a WC game doesn't count as going to playoffs.

[esmd]

33 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

True forgot what thread I was in for a second. Scratch trading Machado if you want to compete next year. Although I'd argue you could trade Britton and Brach for major league ready talent that could help next year and beyond. Just looking at teams in need of Bullpen help: 

Nationals - Fedde fills a SP spot, Andrew Stevenson is projected MLB regular OF 

Twins - Their top prospect is a SS Nick Gordon who is close to ready, they have a number of close pitchers

Astros - Top Level Farm system with a number of infield prospect. 3B J.D Davis in AA could be a guy to target   

The Orioles have proven that they can develop relievers and they have some money to spend. They could trade for MLB ready talent and be competitive next year. 

Why?  He's ONE player.  You mean to tell me if you replace him at 3rd with someone like Moustakas or Frazier, and fix the rotation, that we can't compete next year?  Sorry, I don't buy that.  Let's say you trade Machado only, keeping the 'pen intact.  You get a package of 4 or 5 players back, one of whom is a SP candidate that takes a rotation spot next year.  So you've got Gausman, Bundy, the SP acquired for Machado, maybe you sign a guy like Alex Cobb, and say, Jayson Aquino.  You've still got guys like Asher and Wright as depth in the event of injury, etc.  The 'pen is intact.  The position players are are largely intact.  You need a corner OFer OR you move Jones to RF and find a CFer ether via FA or one of the kids on the farm.  How is that not a team that can compete?

[FanSince88]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

O's went to the playoffs with poor starters and great relievers.   The O's have  been part of the trend of raising the importance the pen.

No, they weren't poor starters in 2016.  Gausman, Tillman, and Bundy weren't poor last year, they were at least league average.  Ubaldo and Gallardo were both below average but not "poor" (they were both replacement-level pitchers).  

By contrast, in 2017 Ubaldo is well below replacement level, Tillman is WAY below replacement level, and Gausman has cratered from 4.2 WAR in 2016 to just barely above replacement level.

[FanSince88]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

Why?  He's ONE player.  You mean to tell me if you replace him at 3rd with someone like Moustakas or Frazier, and fix the rotation, that we can't compete next year?  Sorry, I don't buy that.  Let's say you trade Machado only, keeping the 'pen intact.  You get a package of 4 or 5 players back, one of whom is a SP candidate that takes a rotation spot next year.  So you've got Gausman, Bundy, the SP acquired for Machado, maybe you sign a guy like Alex Cobb, and say, Jayson Aquino.  You've still got guys like Asher and Wright as depth in the event of injury, etc.  The 'pen is intact.  The position players are are largely intact.  You need a corner OFer OR you move Jones to RF and find a CFer ether via FA or one of the kids on the farm.  How is that not a team that can compete?

In 2014, our most successful season since the mid-90s and arguably since 1983, Manny was on the DL for half the year.  His WAR was only 2.4 in 2014, so unless you think that's wildly off base,we still would have run away with the division in 2014 even if Manny wasn't on the roster at all.  In 2012 we only had Manny half the year and came within a game of winning the ALDS.  We missed the playoffs by a significant margin in 2013 and 2015 IN SPITE of those being two of Manny's seasons in an O's uniform.  I keep coming back to that.  

Manny Machado is neither necessary nor sufficient to make the playoffs.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

If I was a free agent fringe starter, I would be running to the O's. A lot of opportunity to start.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Losing a WC game doesn't count as going to playoffs.

Sure it does.

[Lucky_13]

17 minutes ago, esmd said:

Why?  He's ONE player.  You mean to tell me if you replace him at 3rd with someone like Moustakas or Frazier, and fix the rotation, that we can't compete next year?  Sorry, I don't buy that.  Let's say you trade Machado only, keeping the 'pen intact.  You get a package of 4 or 5 players back, one of whom is a SP candidate that takes a rotation spot next year.  So you've got Gausman, Bundy, the SP acquired for Machado, maybe you sign a guy like Alex Cobb, and say, Jayson Aquino.  You've still got guys like Asher and Wright as depth in the event of injury, etc.  The 'pen is intact.  The position players are are largely intact.  You need a corner OFer OR you move Jones to RF and find a CFer ether via FA or one of the kids on the farm.  How is that not a team that can compete?

If it were me running the team I'd trade Machado too and make the 2018 season an evaluation year for the young guys. I agree that Manny is not as important as some here make him out to be but if the team is dead set on competing next year then I think you keep Machado that way you only have one hole to fill on the left side of the infield. I don't see them signing Moustakas to the money he'll demand and Frazier is just another aging slugger. 

And that rotation you listed looks solidly middle of the road. I'd rather stockpile young arms by trading some pieces of value now to have an elite rotation down the road.