No excuses now

[JTrea81]

You are too busy overreacting to stop and see the point.

Millar, or any other stopgap, is not the problem.

The problem is if there is a team of Millars.

I'm confident that won't be the case.

I realize that you enjoy screaming that the sky is falling, but can you really not see the difference between having a few stopgaps vs. having a team of up and comers with the occasional Millar to complement them?

We have holes at SS, 1B, DH, 3B and 2B after 2009 right now. And I don't see a 30-35+ HR bat that will fill any of them in the organization within the next 4 years anyway. Tex is the only one we can get via FA IMO so that leaves the draft if we can't get him. The guys we drafted don't really fit that profile either. So that's why I'm a little concerned...

[Mackus]

You are the one missing the point Burg. It was stated in this thread that finding a good FIRST BASEMAN is NOT hard to do. JTrea and I are asking, "If's its so easy, why then have the Orioles had stop gap after stop gap at FIRST BASE?"

Nobody said finding a good 1B is an easy thing to do.

What they said was finding a 1B who can hit good is an easy thing to do. But a 1B who hits good is just an average 1B. They have to hit very good to great to be a good to great 1B. 1B in general hit a lot more than most other positions.

Millar is a bit below average at 1B, but is still a pretty good hitter overall. His OPS+ (compared to league average) has been 111, 106, and 104 in his 3 years with the O's. He's a better than league average hitter, he's just not a better than league average 1B hitter.

[DrungoHazewood]

You are the one missing the point Burg. It was stated in this thread that finding a good FIRST BASEMAN is NOT hard to do. JTrea and I are asking, "If's its so easy, why then have the Orioles had stop gap after stop gap at FIRST BASE?"

And, again, the answer is that the 1998-2007 Baltimore Orioles had no idea what they were doing. During this same period they had Geronimo Gil as a starting catcher. They signed Deivi Cruz and released Eddy Garabito. They thought Jay Payton was a good left fielder. They signed league average DHs to long-term deals. They signed 34-year-old third basemen to long-term deals. They believed in Omar Daal, Mike DeJean, Russ Ortiz, and Rick Helling. They thought that a team with an average age of 35 was just fine. This was a very bad organization.

[JTrea81]

And, again, the answer is that the 1998-2007 Baltimore Orioles had no idea what they were doing.

So what's the excuse for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles? Rebuilding? I'm just wondering how long we are going to buy that excuse. It shouldn't take more than 2 years to rebuild this team. MacPhail's coming up on 1 year already. So that leaves 1 more year to find solutions to SS, 1B, 3B and DH...

And if you don't buy that 2 years, look at the Florida Marlins...

[Mackus]

So what's the excuse for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles?

I think they very clearly are waiting to make a run at Teixeira.

Also, the team isn't trying to win this year, and there were only so many holes they could fill immediately with young(ish) players with upside given the pieces they dealt away.

[DrungoHazewood]

We have holes at SS, 1B, DH, 3B and 2B after 2009 right now. And I don't see a 30-35+ HR bat that will fill any of them in the organization within the next 4 years anyway. Tex is the only one we can get via FA IMO so that leaves the draft if we can't get him. The guys we drafted don't really fit that profile either. So that's why I'm a little concerned...

You simply need to have a more expansive view of the player acquisition process. You've confined MacPhail to a small part of the talent pool.

[DrungoHazewood]

So what's the excuse for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles? Rebuilding? I'm just wondering how long we are going to buy that excuse. It shouldn't take more than 2 years to rebuild this team. MacPhail's coming up on 1 year already...

Two years, huh? So if the O's aren't winning 90+ games a year by 2010 MacPhail is a failure? I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

The "excuse" is that the 2008 Orioles had 1,203 holes and both a first baseman and a DH under contract for this season. Neither Huff nor Millar would have brought back anything of value, so MacPhail worked on other things first.

In reality he doesn't need an excuse as to why he isn't working to your schedule and your set of priorities.

[JTrea81]

You simply need to have a more expansive view of the player acquisition process. You've confined MacPhail to a small part of the talent pool.

What am I missing here? We aren't going to turn Millar, Payton, Walker and Bradford into a full time option for those positions. So that leaves Guthrie, Cabrera, Sherrill and Roberts. You are likely only to get one stud position player for each. I doubt we can fill each hole with trades...

[DrungoHazewood]

And if you don't buy that 2 years, look at the Florida Marlins...

Even if you believe that a team that has a 1:1 ratio of runs scored to allowed in early June is a serious contender, that's a nice standard. Do you apply that to everything you do? I mean, expect the best case scenario, and if that doesn't happen you jump off a cliff?

Wait, this is JTrea81, so I already know the answer.

[Mackus]

Btw, here's the OPS of O's 1B for this decade and the league averages (AL/NL):

2008 - 767 - 758/831

2007 - 813 - 791/846

2006 - 785 - 818/878

2005 - 803 - 801/843

2004 - 768 - 797/849

2003 - 722 - 816/839

2002 - 797 - 843/813

2001 - 853 - 869/816

2000 - 881 - 885/877

So despite having this huge hole at 1B since Palmeiro left the first time, we've still managed to be not terrible there. Its been nothing but stop gaps, but we've only been a little bit worse than average overall at 1B, especially compared to the recent AL firstbaseman, who have been fairly pedestrian as a group since 2003.

[Dipper9]

Two years, huh? So if the O's aren't winning 90+ games a year by 2010 MacPhail is a failure? I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

The "excuse" is that the 2008 Orioles had 1,203 holes and both a first baseman and a DH under contract for this season. Neither Huff nor Millar would have brought back anything of value, so MacPhail worked on other things first.

In reality he doesn't need an excuse as to why he isn't working to your schedule and your set of priorities.

In all honesty, I like Millar as a stopgap for Tex. And I understand why MacPhail put other priorities first. What I do NOT understand is why shortstop was not a priority? They could NOT have truly believed that even on a rebuilding team, the options we have would work.

[JTrea81]

Two years, huh? So if the O's aren't winning 90+ games a year by 2010 MacPhail is a failure? I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

The "excuse" is that the 2008 Orioles had 1,203 holes and both a first baseman and a DH under contract for this season. Neither Huff nor Millar would have brought back anything of value, so MacPhail worked on other things first.

In reality he doesn't need an excuse as to why he isn't working to your schedule and your set of priorities.

There is no reason given the resources that MacPhail has that he can't make this team compete in 2010. So yes if we aren't competing by 2010, MacPhail will have failed IMO.

[Mackus]

In all honesty, I like Millar as a stopgap for Tex. And I understand why MacPhail put other priorities first. What I do NOT understand is why shortstop was not a priority? They could NOT have truly believed that even on a rebuilding team, the options we have would work.

He thought he'd be getting a SS in the Roberts deal is the most probably answer to your question.

We also would've been getting Hu in any sort of Dodgers trade, for either Tejada, Bedard, or both.

[Dipper9]

Btw, here's the OPS of O's 1B for this decade and the league averages (AL/NL):

2008 - 767 - 758/831

2007 - 813 - 791/846

2006 - 785 - 818/878

2005 - 803 - 801/843

2004 - 768 - 797/849

2003 - 722 - 816/839

2002 - 797 - 843/813

2001 - 853 - 869/816

2000 - 881 - 885/877

So despite having this huge hole at 1B since Palmeiro left the first time, we've still managed to be not terrible there. Its been nothing but stop gaps, but we've only been a little bit worse than average overall at 1B, especially compared to the recent AL firstbaseman, who have been fairly pedestrian as a group since 2003.

I don't agree that OPS is the standard to use for first baseman. I'd go with run production myself, but that's just me. I'm not really a stat guru, so for all I know, run production may be included in OPS????? Apologize in advance if I am wrong.

[DrungoHazewood]

What am I missing here?

A LOT.

We aren't going to turn Millar, Payton, Walker and Bradford into a full time option for those positions. So that leaves Guthrie, Cabrera, Sherrill and Roberts. You are likely only to get one stud position player for each. I doubt we can fill each hole with trades...

Obviously you aren't going to fill every hole by trading for stud prospects. That's abundantly clear.

You fill holes by drafting. By trading. By signing free agents. By cobbling together platoons. By finding blocked players. By the Rule 5 draft. By signing international free agents. By picking up guys from the waiver wire. By picking kids out of indy leagues. By dealing for other team's supposed problem contracts. By signing minor league free agents and acquiring Ken Phelps All Stars. You can trade young, unestablished talent for established players. You can move players down the defensive spectrum. There are about 150 players I could come up with who are plausibly productive first basemen for the 2009 Baltimore Orioles.

My Lord, it's a vast oversimplification to say that the only way the O's are ever going to contend again is to pay $200M for Mark Teixeira, or trade one of about four players currently on the major league roster to fill every hole.