Could A Caleb Joseph Trade Yield A Rental Starter?

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd hate to lose Joseph, but if the team was going to go full blown rebuild and the right deal came along, I'd move him too. Saying that, I don't think this team is going to do much and it's definitely not going to rebuild at the deadline. This little mini winning streak will make the FO think they can compete. I just hope they don't go the other way and try and move some cost controlled piece for a 5th starter rental guy.

Meanwhile, while we've been on a "little mini winning streak," meaning 6-3 in our last 9, the KC Royals have won 7 in a row and now lead us for the 2nd wild card by 4.5 games.

As you know, during the ASB I was advocating waiting about two weeks before deciding which way to jump.     It's been 12 days, we are 6-6, and the fundamental problem of our starting pitchers putting us in a deep hole far too often hasn't gotten any better.     At some point, you have to make a calculated judgment about the odds that this team could get hot and make a run, and we've played out the string nearly as long as possible before making that judgment.     While the team may still want to wait a few more days, the odds certainly don't appear good enough to justify trading long-term assets for rentals.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Meanwhile, while we've been on a "little mini winning streak," meaning 6-3 in our last 9, the KC Royals have won 7 in a row and now lead us for the 2nd wild card by 4.5 games.

As you know, during the ASB I was advocating waiting about two weeks before deciding which way to jump.     It's been 12 days, we are 6-6, and the fundamental problem of our starting pitchers putting us in a deep hole far too often hasn't gotten any better.     At some point, you have to make a calculated judgment about the odds that this team could get hot and make a run, and we've played out the string nearly as long as possible before making that judgment.     While the team may still want to wait a few more days, the odds certainly don't appear good enough to justify trading long-term assets for rentals.

This is the absolute key to it all in my opinion. Even if the Orioles feel for some reason that they can compete with the team they have, they absolutely should not even consider trading some of their few legitimate prospects for rentals. 

I don't know who is offering what for who or what DD is trying to do, but I hope to God we don't end up with another Davies for Parra type deal. That would be the worse case scenario in my mind.

If I'm DD, I'm shopping Britton, Brach, O'day, Castillo, Smith, and Kim around pretty hard. With another good start under his belt, I might see if I can move Tillman for something as well. I'm listening to all offers for everyone, including Machado. As much as I'd hate to see it, I'd see if there was interest in Jones as well for the right deal.

My only untouchables on the current roster if you can call them that since I'd move anyone in the right deal, Schoop, Gausman, Bundy, and Givens because they are young, talented and cost controlled for several more seasons.

What would I be looking for? Starting pitcher and shortstop prospects (high level nearly or major league ready preferred) and a true center fielder.

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Did you ever think he's not a backup catcher? Caleb is a cost controlled catcher for the next few seasons who knows how to mentor young pitchers and catchers. I'd move Castillo today for a rental starter but not Caleb.

I think Caleb is our first-string catcher for the immediate future, and I wouldn't mind having the future start now.

Caleb was blocked by Wieters, and then made himself into a back-up for this year by his historically bad offense in 2016. That's behind him, and I view him as a starter until someone dislodges him.  Barring a breakdown, we shouldn't expend an ounce of talent acquiring catchers from outside the system.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd hate to lose Joseph, but if the team was going to go full blown rebuild and the right deal came along, I'd move him too. Saying that, I don't think this team is going to do much and it's definitely not going to rebuild at the deadline. This little mini winning streak will make the FO think they can compete. I just hope they don't go the other way and try and move some cost controlled piece for a 5th starter rental guy.

I'm afraid that you're right and fear the same thing.

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is the absolute key to it all in my opinion. Even if the Orioles feel for some reason that they can compete with the team they have, they absolutely should not even consider trading some of their few legitimate prospects for rentals. 

I don't know who is offering what for who or what DD is trying to do, but I hope to God we don't end up with another Davies for Parra type deal. That would be the worse case scenario in my mind.

If I'm DD, I'm shopping Britton, Brach, O'day, Castillo, Smith, and Kim around pretty hard. With another good start under his belt, I might see if I can move Tillman for something as well. I'm listening to all offers for everyone, including Machado. As much as I'd hate to see it, I'd see if there was interest in Jones as well for the right deal.

My only untouchables on the current roster if you can call them that since I'd move anyone in the right deal, Schoop, Gausman, Bundy, and Givens because they are young, talented and cost controlled for several more seasons.

What would I be looking for? Starting pitcher and shortstop prospects (high level nearly or major league ready preferred) and a true center fielder.

I doubt much of that happens.   Dan may move Britton for prospects if he gets the right deal.  That also lowers the payroll.   Its gives him some money to trade for a starter.  And yes a minor league is likely to go in the deal.  I have been saying RA Dickey for DJ Stewart  but that does not have to be the deal.  Its could be anything like that.

I can see the O's extending Brach and  re-signing Tillman this off season.  Smith is valuable to the O's wild card race push as is Castillo.  Kim could go at any time but it probably happens after July 31st so they can put him through waivers and talk trade.   O'Day is not attractive to other clubs right now.  HIs ERA is high and so is his salary.  He stays.

[webbrick2010]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I doubt much of that happens.   Dan may move Britton for prospects if he gets the right deal.  That also lowers the payroll.   Its gives him some money to trade for a starter.  And yes a minor league is likely to go in the deal.  I have been saying RA Dickey for DJ Stewart  but that does not have to be the deal.  Its could be anything like that.

I can see the O's extending Brach and  re-signing Tillman this off season.  Smith is valuable to the O's wild card race push as is Castillo.  Kim could go at any time but it probably happens after July 31st so they can put him through waivers and talk trade.   O'Day is not attractive to other clubs right now.  HIs ERA is high and so is his salary.  He stays.

How can someone be valuable to a race that is long over. LOL, people still don't get it.

With DD in charge we can just save these threads and reuse them again next year when the core is a year older and the lifetime achievement award winners (Chris Davis, Darren O'day, and Trumbo) will still be sucking down nearly 25% of the payroll and providing nothing.

[Tony-OH]

BTW, Caleb has now started 5 of the last 8 games and the Orioles are 3-1, and leading 1-0 today.

He's 6th on the team in WAR despite being a backup most of the year.

With Joseph catching, the Orioles have a 4.35 ERA vs 5.87 for Welington Castillo.

Four out of five starters (Bundy being the only exception) pitch better when Joseph catches. Miley pitches amazingly better. 

 

 

[HokieOs]

8 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

How many backup catchers have put up 4.2 rWAR in four years, still make under $1 million and have 3 years of control remaining?

Seems to me he could be of service to quite a few teams that could benefit by adding a backup catcher who plays the position decently and also hits. Maybe one of them would be happy to trade a league-average starter who is also a pending free agent.

Caleb's biggest drawback at this point would probably be his age (31).

Could trading Caleb enable us to acquire a starting pitching upgrade for the rest of the season without giving up a prospect?

He might be able to, but what good is that going to do? Sure, maybe we'll improve slightly. But I don't think we should be fooling ourselves by being only a couple games out of the race for a wildcard spot. The long-term future is NOT GOOD the way things stand. So why trade a guy who is performing at a modest cost and we have three years of control for just to get a rental pitcher (when we have MANY needs... including MULTIPLE pitchers)?

Now if trading Caleb can net us better prospects for the future, I'm all for it. But trying to compete for a wildcard spot this season just because we're only a few games back (behind quite a few other teams) would be a fallacy. 

[Tx Oriole]

11 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

How many backup catchers have put up 4.2 rWAR in four years, still make under $1 million and have 3 years of control remaining?

Seems to me he could be of service to quite a few teams that could benefit by adding a backup catcher who plays the position decently and also hits. Maybe one of them would be happy to trade a league-average starter who is also a pending free agent.

Caleb's biggest drawback at this point would probably be his age (31).

Could trading Caleb enable us to acquire a starting pitching upgrade for the rest of the season without giving up a prospect?

Not a good plan. This team is toast. No use losing Caleb for a rental pitcher that won't change the outcome. IMO 

[Tx Oriole]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd hate to lose Joseph, but if the team was going to go full blown rebuild and the right deal came along, I'd move him too. Saying that, I don't think this team is going to do much and it's definitely not going to rebuild at the deadline. This little mini winning streak will make the FO think they can compete. I just hope they don't go the other way and try and move some cost controlled piece for a 5th starter rental guy.

I am afraid that's what the FO will do though.

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I doubt much of that happens.   Dan may move Britton for prospects if he gets the right deal.  That also lowers the payroll.   Its gives him some money to trade for a starter.  And yes a minor league is likely to go in the deal.  I have been saying RA Dickey for DJ Stewart  but that does not have to be the deal.  Its could be anything like that.

I can see the O's extending Brach and  re-signing Tillman this off season.  Smith is valuable to the O's wild card race push as is Castillo.  Kim could go at any time but it probably happens after July 31st so they can put him through waivers and talk trade.   O'Day is not attractive to other clubs right now.  HIs ERA is high and so is his salary.  He stays.

Do you honestly think the O's can make it to the WC? 

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Do you honestly think the O's can make it to the WC? 

It was always a long shot, and has become much more remote over the last six days.    It's time to sell -- but the sales prices still need to be right.   Can't just sell for selling's sake.   

[El Gordo]

I think the best course of action is a trade or trades for ML ready or near readty SP under control.This could help us now and next season and in the future.. Britton Castillo Smith Brach Sisco and Montcastle would be my chips. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

I noticed a few people said they would dangle Sisco out there. What about Mountcastle? What if his promotion and move was a way to "show him off?"

As for Caleb, unless there is an extremely good price, keep him and trade Castillo. Only way they would trade Joseph is if they are worried what arbitration with him next year will be like, as he is probably playing with a chip on his shoulder. A team of Joseph and Pena until September isn't that bad actually. If one gets hurt, you have Perez or Wynns to fill in.

[MDtransplant757]

13 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This is the absolute key to it all in my opinion. Even if the Orioles feel for some reason that they can compete with the team they have, they absolutely should not even consider trading some of their few legitimate prospects for rentals. 

I don't know who is offering what for who or what DD is trying to do, but I hope to God we don't end up with another Davies for Parra type deal. That would be the worse case scenario in my mind.

If I'm DD, I'm shopping Britton, Brach, O'day, Castillo, Smith, and Kim around pretty hard. With another good start under his belt, I might see if I can move Tillman for something as well. I'm listening to all offers for everyone, including Machado. As much as I'd hate to see it, I'd see if there was interest in Jones as well for the right deal.

My only untouchables on the current roster if you can call them that since I'd move anyone in the right deal, Schoop, Gausman, Bundy, and Givens because they are young, talented and cost controlled for several more seasons.

What would I be looking for? Starting pitcher and shortstop prospects (high level nearly or major league ready preferred) and a true center fielder.

Apparently DD wants to much for Britton. No news on Brach, but by monday afternoon, I fully expecet Smith, Castillo and maybe Brach to be out of here. What we get back in return, I have no clue. 

There are 3 teams I'd be shopping to hard right now. 

Colorado for Garrett Hampson, Yency Almonte, Sam Howard

Milwaukee for Marucio Dubon, Freddy Peralta, Lucas Erceg (if we're deadset on moving Manny to SS)

Anaheim for Grayson Long and David Fletcher. 

Anaheim I consider a long shot, as these two guys are practically guaranteed to start in Anaheim out of the gate next year. 

 

 

I consider Milwaukee to be a bit of a tough sell too. BP help and a LFer could are going to be the biggest selling points. 

Coloardo is where we'd get our most value from. They need OF help, BP help and a new catcher.