Will Castillo opt out?

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

Shocking disclosure - I'm not up on metrics.  Is there a WAR per game stat?  If yes, wouldn't that be more useful than WAR in determining how good a player is?    

Not sure, wait until Corn responds. There are, but WAR is a cumulative stat. It's all of the crazy stats and other, more normal stats into one digestable package. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Shocking disclosure - I'm not up on metrics.  Is there a WAR per game stat?  If yes, wouldn't that be more useful than WAR in determining how good a player is?    

I guess you could divide the WAR by the number of games played?

You don't think the ability to stay on the field is important?

WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement.  Any game that the player in question isn't on the field you could assume that a replacement level player is on the field in his stead.

[FlipTheBird]

2 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Like whom, for example? Miley has been bad at points this year, but if it means Manny is resigned, plus maybe Schoop as well, then I'm all for it. This FA market is going to be a lot of garbage in terms of pitching. Only 2 I like are Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, but I'd be interested in Jaime Garcia. 

Miley has been bad all year. Squeaking by by the seat of his pants in April (where his metrics were all awful anyway, and predicted his fall) doesn't mean he was serviceable. He's an albatross.

You do not need to acquire a Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb or Jaime Garcia to be better than Wade Miley. Wade Miley has been a replacement-level player in his stint with the Orioles.

The precise market is hard to peg down this far in advance, but arms that I'd take over Miley who probably won't command $9 million a year include...

Miguel Gonzalez
John Lackey
Jeremy Hellickson
Scott Feldman
Trevor Cahill
Tyler Chatwood
Matt Garza
Chris Tillman

Among many others that they could potentially acquire in trade. Granted, none of these arms are stellar. But what I'm saying is that I'd sooner see any of them in Orange and Black over Wade Miley, and I don't know if any will reach $9 million.

[wildcard]

Wynn has a 42% caught steal this year and a 45% last year.  His current OBP is 379 with 811 OPS in AA.

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

Miley has been bad all year. Squeaking by by the seat of his pants in April (where his metrics were all awful anyway, and predicted his fall) doesn't mean he was serviceable. He's an albatross.

You do not need to acquire a Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb or Jaime Garcia to be better than Wade Miley. Wade Miley has been a replacement-level player in his stint with the Orioles.

The precise market is hard to peg down this far in advance, but arms that I'd take over Miley who probably won't command $9 million a year include...

Miguel Gonzalez
John Lackey
Jeremy Hellickson
Scott Feldman
Trevor Cahill
Tyler Chatwood
Matt Garza
Chris Tillman

Among many others that they could potentially acquire in trade. Granted, none of these arms are stellar. But what I'm saying is that I'd sooner see any of them in Orange and Black over Wade Miley, and I don't know if any will reach $9 million.

Miguel might be available at that price, Hellickson doesn't look so good in the AL. Feldman is old, Cahill is suffering from the same thing that has killed Tillman (He should not come back next year). Tyler Chatwood just flat out sucks, even compared to Wade Miley. Garza is also horrible too. 

[MDtransplant757]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wynn has a 42% caught steal this year and a 45% last year.  His current OBP is 379 with 811 OPS in AA.

He's also 26. If he was a year younger, I'd consider him a big prospect. Better late than never, I suppose. 

[bpilktree]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It bothers me a great deal that the team ERA is much higher when Castillo catches (5.51) than when Joseph does (4.31).      

Miley: 6.26/3.86

Gausman: 7.53/3.13

Jimenez: 8.06/5.37

Bundy: 3.72/5.03

Tillman: 10.06/6.85

Obviously, there is a ton of noise in CERA statistics, and I assume the splits for the rest of the staff favor Castillo overall.    But these are gaping differences among the guys who rely most heavily on their catcher to have a game plan for them.     I'd rather spend my $7 mm elsewhere and give Joseph/Sisco a shot.

 

That tells me more that the starters have no idea where the ball is going.  The one guy that actually seems to be able to locate a fastball is doing better because when the catcher calls the pitch on the inside he can actually throw it there.  What we need is more guys that can actually throw the ball were it is called.  I haven't had much complaints about the pitch that either catcher calls but more that the pitchers can't throw it were they are calling it. 

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

He's also 26. If he was a year younger, I'd consider him a big prospect. Better late than never, I suppose. 

Caleb was 5 weeks shy of his 28th birthday when he  got the call to the majors.  I think its more important what a player can do then how old he is.  Especially catcher because they can take a little longer to develop.

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Caleb was 5 weeks shy of his 28th birthday when he  got the call to the majors.

True. 

[LookitsPuck]

Out of 101 catchers throughout the season, Castillo is ranked 85th in +Calls with -76. For reference, Wieters (historically awful pitch framer) is 87th with -86. 

I've never been enamored w/ Castillo's game calling, either. I think he's too much like Wieters. Fastball happy. On top of that, the poor receiving just wears at me. I have more confidence in Joseph. Maybe it's anecdotal, but I also feel like the pitchers aren't generally on the same page as Castillo during the flow of the game.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Out of 101 catchers throughout the season, Castillo is ranked 85th in +Calls with -76. For reference, Wieters (historically awful pitch framer) is 87th with -86. 

I've never been enamored w/ Castillo's game calling, either. I think he's too much like Wieters. Fastball happy. On top of that, the poor receiving just wears at me. I have more confidence in Joseph. Maybe it's anecdotal, but I also feel like the pitchers aren't generally on the same page as Castillo during the flow of the game.

Not really fair to him.  Early in his career he was a slightly above average framer.  His framing ability has declined along with the rest of his defensive skill set.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guess you could divide the WAR by the number of games played?

You don't think the ability to stay on the field is important?

WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement.  Any game that the player in question isn't on the field you could assume that a replacement level player is on the field in his stead.

Durability is important, but talent is more important.  And how often you play is up to the manager.  Actually, WAR per inning would be a much more useful stat, imo.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 hour ago, MDtransplant757 said:

He's also 26. If he was a year younger, I'd consider him a big prospect. Better late than never, I suppose. 

He also stayed in college for all 4 years.

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Miguel might be available at that price, Hellickson doesn't look so good in the AL. Feldman is old, Cahill is suffering from the same thing that has killed Tillman (He should not come back next year). Tyler Chatwood just flat out sucks, even compared to Wade Miley. Garza is also horrible too. 

Miguel Gonzalez will not get $9 million.

Jeremy Hellickson has made four starts with the Orioles. Relax. If he legitimately stopped pitching right now he'd still end the year with a better WAR than Wade Miley.

Scott Feldman being 34 has not changed that he's better than Wade Miley.

Tyler Chatwood pitches in the worst environment in baseball for pitchers and still has a 1.2 WAR. If you think he sucks, Wade Miley doesn't deserve to be in baseball by comparison.

Cahill and Tillman would be reclamation projects, lottery tickets. Lottery tickets are typically cheap. When you're replacing 3/5 starters, you're going to have to play the lottery a bit.

Wade Miley is a terrible pitcher. If he's back in an Orioles uniform next year, it's an awful, awful decision.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Miguel might be available at that price, Hellickson doesn't look so good in the AL. Feldman is old, Cahill is suffering from the same thing that has killed Tillman (He should not come back next year). Tyler Chatwood just flat out sucks, even compared to Wade Miley. Garza is also horrible too. 

I think Miley could be retained at a cheaper rate if DD decides to bring him back. I can't imagine a scenario where he will be a sought after commodity.