Revised Oriole Top Ten Prospects (post draft)

[Hutman]

Matusz was the concencus #1 pitcher in this year's draft and while not considered the same as Price from last year's draft was much more highly regarded than Arrieta coming out of school. So, I'd say his position is based on the high opinion that the scouts had of Matusz coming into this year's draft. Given that Arrieta has had limited pro experience, it's not unreasonable to have Matusz rated slightly higher.

The important thing for me is that unlike years past, when guys like Rommie Lewis or Ryan Minor were our top prospects, I can point to at least 6 to 8 guys on this list that I have no doubt will have an impact on our major league team, although most of them Liz, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen, Spoone are pitchers with only Wieters and possibly Reimold pretty sure things at the plate.

I heard Jim Callis on WNST on Saturday morning. He said that he would put Matusz as the # 1 pitching prospect in the Orioles organization AHEAD of Chris Tillman. He said that the fastball is Matusz 3rd best pitch behind his change up and his curve ball. He said that he thought Matusz was a seasoned talent both from college and Team USA.

[JimPalmerJr]

Laugh now… but the kid is 20 years old… he will not be the same player he is today, after 700 more professional at-bats (not to mention any fall or winter league experiences).

When you get to the deadline next year, the O's will know they have about 2 months left in Mora's contract….. Are they going to play Mora everyday during August and September 2009 when they know they will not be bringing him back to start 2010?

I think it is possible they go with Moore and Costanzo… rotating back and forth between the hot-hand… and let them start the 1st half of 2010… but ultimately, the job figures to belong to Rowell at some point in 2010 unless he has no progression in Frederick the remainder of this year, and does not make the jump to Bowie to start 2009.

He had an OPS in the 760's at Delmarva as a 19 year old, which is plenty impressive… and is at a 670 level in Frederick as a 20 year-old… my guess is that he finishes the 2008 season somewhere between 720-780… so I am just going to say 750… if he can basically equate the offense he showed at Delmarva, while stepping up a league in play, that is a positive season…

In 135 ab's, he has a 252avg, 2 homers, 8 doubles, 25 rbi… the only real negative stats is the 39 k's, with only 12 walks… in his last 10 games though, he has 4 walks, and 5k's.. His other major struggle is against lefties… which is typical for many youngsters, and exaggerated with a lefty bat.

Rowell has a long way to go, but what you have to remember is at this point he only has 665 Minor League at-bats…. The player he will be after another 700 ab's will literally be twice as experienced….

Even if Rowell is at Frederick the 1st half of next year, that still puts him a year ahead of Weiters in getting to AA.

As for the Moore / Costanza platoon - I think Melvin likes the chances that his 2010 option is picked up.

[Jammer7]

These lists are tough because you're inserting the new guys based on projection and tools without benefit of a professional performance track record. Nevertheless, here's my stab at it.

1. Matt Wieters C#

2. Chris Tillman RHP

3. Nolan Reimold RF (starting to mash again...stay healthy Big Nole!)

4. Jake Arrieta RHP

5. Brian Matusz LHP (if it makes you feel better, put him ahead of Jake on your own list )

6. Radhames Liz RHP

7. David Hernandez RHP

8. Billy Rowell 3B* (he's struggling a little, thus I would have liked to see him in Delamarva)

9. Chorye Spoone RHP

10. Brandon Snyder 1B/3B (starting to heat up...)

11. Brandon Erbe RHP (is his hard head getting in the way again?)

12. Tyler Henson 3B

13. Pedro Beato RHP (how serious is the shoulder injury?)

14. Ryan Adams 2B (errors aside, kid is a hitting machine)

15. Brad Bergesen RHP

16. Zach Britton LHP

17. Tim Bascom RHP

18. Brandon Tripp RF* (K's are a big concern, but producing)

19. Chris Vinyard 1B

20. Xavier Avery CF* (look for him to be much higher next June)

21. Troy Patton LHP

22. Joe Mahoney 1B*

23. Tony Butler LHP

24. Jason Berken RHP

25. Kameron Mickolio RHP

26. Matt Angle CF*

27. Bob McCrory RHP

28. Jake Renshaw RHP

29. Mike Costanzo 3B* (K's are a concern)

30. Keiron Pope LF (don't dismiss him just yet)

[hoosiers]

That's a nice list, Jammer.

It would reflect a tremendous re-stocking of the farm system the past few years.

I believe Bundy would be among the top 20 prospects if signed - probably inside the top 15 if he's healthy and throwing 95 entering 2009.

[glenn__davis]

Impressive list there, Jammer! Congrats on being the first to attempt the top 30.

One question for you -- what's your justification for Mahoney being so high? He's done next to nothing at Delmarva this year. Maybe the biggest disappointment of the year for me so far, I was so hoping he could become a solid power prospect.

[Jammer7]

Impressive list there, Jammer! Congrats on being the first to attempt the top 30.

One question for you -- what's your justification for Mahoney being so high? He's done next to nothing at Delmarva this year. Maybe the biggest disappointment of the year for me so far, I was so hoping he could become a solid power prospect.

I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. He's got top of the charts power and he's an athlete for a guy his size. He finished the season strong last year for the last 5-6 weeks, so I'm hopeful he gets it going soon as the weather has gotten hotter. I just think he's going to figure it out. Would you consider his season a success if he ends up .270 avg., 30 2B, 18 HR, and 80 RBI...even if he ends up with 120 SO's? I would as long as he improves his pitch recognition and selection.

[Jammer7]

That's a nice list, Jammer.

It would reflect a tremendous re-stocking of the farm system the past few years.

I believe Bundy would be among the top 20 prospects if signed - probably inside the top 15 if he's healthy and throwing 95 entering 2009.

Perhaps, but with HS pitchers I'm real skeptical until you show me something. Don't get me wrong, I have high hopes for him and I believe you will probably see him in the top 5 in a few years...if he signs that is. I had a feeling Jordan would take a flyer on him being in Oklahoma and all as Jordan is tight with a lot of folks there. If JJ took him in round 8, he must have a good feel for what it will take to get things done, and he's comfortable with that figure.

There is no doubt that this system is vastly healthier with the current regime than at any time in my 30+ years of watching Orioles baseball. I'm very excited to see if we can actually turn the corner and "develop" talented kids into true prospects. Somehow, I just believe it. But it will take some time to get these kids to Baltimore.

Anybody could draft a Brian Roberts or a Matt Wieters and they're going to hit. Markakis and Reimold, I believe will be the biggest endorsements of the development program. You may argue that Markakis was a high draft pick and such, but he was only one year out of HS and he was raw as a hitter. The list of failures (Bryan Bass, Tripper Johnson, Val Majewski, Fiorentino, and such) is long, but so is everyone else's. The coaching is supposedly greatly improved, I guess we'll see over the next 5-7 years. :mwahaha:

[tywright]

15. Brad Bergesen RHP

23. Tony Butler LHP

Good list, but Bergesen and Butler definitely need to be higher. Butler is a top 15 prospect for us.

[Jammer7]

Good list, but Bergesen and Butler definitely need to be higher. Butler is a top 15 prospect for us.

It depends on your methodology. Do you rate tools, projection, results, all three, combination, and do you weigh them equally? For me, these two guys are ranked right where I think they belong.

Bergesen is in the low 90's and has very solid control of three pitches. He has to keep the ball down to be as effective as he's been this year. To me, he's like a John Maine. If he gains more velocity, and maintains control and movement, then he moves up. And, yes Maine was in our top 5 a few years ago, but today he'd be where Bergesen is. I don't think Bergesen is a #2 or 3 starter in the ML, that's not his profile right now. He could be ranked ahead of Beato and Erbe on results, but when you consider the long-term potential of Erbe and Beato they should rank higher in my opinion.

Butler's performance has been nothing exceptional at this point. He has tremendous potential, but command issues (quality strikes) and 89-91 velocity have me ranking him where he is right now. More hits (52) than IP (47) and only 35 K's, however only 7 BB's. He's a project like advertised and #23 is about right for him IMHO.

[Ven6]

Jammer, why McCrory so low? I thought he was a potential call up this year (to stay--unlike his stint earlier).

[orioole28]

These lists are tough because you're inserting the new guys based on projection and tools without benefit of a professional performance track record. Nevertheless, here's my stab at it.

1. Matt Wieters C#

2. Chris Tillman RHP

3. Nolan Reimold RF (starting to mash again...stay healthy Big Nole!)

4. Jake Arrieta RHP

5. Brian Matusz LHP (if it makes you feel better, put him ahead of Jake on your own list )

6. Radhames Liz RHP

7. David Hernandez RHP

8. Billy Rowell 3B* (he's struggling a little, thus I would have liked to see him in Delamarva)

9. Chorye Spoone RHP

10. Brandon Snyder 1B/3B (starting to heat up...)

11. Brandon Erbe RHP (is his hard head getting in the way again?)

12. Tyler Henson 3B

13. Pedro Beato RHP (how serious is the shoulder injury?)

14. Ryan Adams 2B (errors aside, kid is a hitting machine)

15. Brad Bergesen RHP

16. Zach Britton LHP

17. Tim Bascom RHP

18. Brandon Tripp RF* (K's are a big concern, but producing)

19. Chris Vinyard 1B

20. Xavier Avery CF* (look for him to be much higher next June)

21. Troy Patton LHP

22. Joe Mahoney 1B*

23. Tony Butler LHP

24. Jason Berken RHP

25. Kameron Mickolio RHP

26. Matt Angle CF*

27. Bob McCrory RHP

28. Jake Renshaw RHP

29. Mike Costanzo 3B* (K's are a concern)

30. Keiron Pope LF (don't dismiss him just yet)

Great list, but I wouldn't have Renshaw on my top 30 list

[Crazysilver03]

Great list, but I wouldn't have Renshaw on my top 30 list

Why not.

Jammer shouldnt have Liz on his list unless he thinks Liz won accumulate 40 more innings with the Orioles this season.

[orioole28]

Why not.

Jammer shouldnt have Liz on his list unless he thinks Liz won accumulate 40 more innings with the Orioles this season.

Because his ERA is at 5.27!! What has he done??

[Jammer7]

Jammer, why McCrory so low? I thought he was a potential call up this year (to stay--unlike his stint earlier).

Command issues. I had him higher in the beginning of the season, but he has 12 bb in 21.2 ip and he's 26. He didn't look good in his debut with the birds either. Hey, if he gets it together, I'll move him up. Right now, he is where he is.

Look, some of these guys are lower because there is very good depth in the organization. Relief pitchers are not going to rate too highly, unless they are dominant, because they are of lesser value to the organization and baseball in general. McCrory, Hoey and so on have to be dominant to be in the top 10-15. Hoey is hurt, but when he was healthy (as far as we know anyway) he struggled with command with the birds.

To me, McCrory, Jim Miller and Hoey are trade bait. The bullpen has depth and Ray and Baez are coming back, along with Loewen, Fernando Cabrera, Rocky Cherry and such. The bullpen is going to get really crowded this season and next. Some will have to go. They lost their shot when Jim Johnson moved into the set-up role and threw strikes.

[Jammer7]

Why not.

Jammer shouldnt have Liz on his list unless he thinks Liz won accumulate 40 more innings with the Orioles this season.

Nope, it's not about if I think he'll get 40 innings in Balmer or not. It's just the fact that he doesn't have those innings right now. He's still a prospect until he does, and no I'm not worried about his ERA in Norfolk as he struggled early and then put it together more recently. He is still a work in progress, but his stuff is just filthy.

I believe he will get those innings this season. When he does, I'll take him off the list and add someone new like.....Elvin Polanco 1B#. By then the SS teams should be playing and everyone will remember who he is.