Orioles Protech Wynn, Harvey, and Hess prior to the rule 5

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Long and LHP Luis Gonzalez are the two at risk if you ask me. I would have protected Long over Hess personally, but Buck is all about velocity. His strange obsession with Stefan Crichton kinda shows that. 

Both don't have a ton of upside so this would be one of these situations where if a team is rebuilding and has a bullpen need they might get selected, but I'd say there's probably a 25% chance or less that they get taken since they don't have the big arms.

Hess peeks my interest.

Roch had this from his Graham interview:

Quote

Hess came on strong in the second half at Bowie, posting a 2.25 ERA in six August starts. His ERA at Bowie fell from 5.37 in 2016 to 3.85. His average-against dropped from .310 to .235.

“Hess has four pitches and he throws them all for strikes,” Graham said. “He competes, he’s got average-to-plus stuff. What David has lacked is consistent command.”

The surge in August coincided with Hess’ decision to move back from the left to right side of the pitching rubber. He never was comfortable with the switch and asked to start throwing again from the third base side, which gave him a little more crossfire against right-handed hitters.

The improvement in results also can be explained by the implementation of a split-change to his repertoire.

“It got better and better every time he used it that last month of the season,” Graham said.

 

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Hess peeks my interest.

Roch had this from his Graham interview:

 

His fastball is pretty straight and his stuff is inconsistent as well. It's true at times he can flash average or even plus stuff, but it's very inconsistent. Hess is similar to Mike Wright. He may have success one day then get hammered the next. I am interested in him if they put him in the pen and let him use and master one offspeed pitch to go with his fastball and see how it plays there.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The idea that he introduced a new offspeed pitch and had good success with it the last month of the season and least piques my interest in seeing what he does as a starter next year in Norfolk.   

As with the placement of his foot, sometime simple changes make all the difference in the world.

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

Honestly I just think people overstate the end risk.  Even if these guys get taken they're not guarantee to stick, and even if they stick, so what?  We've been playing this rule 5 game for years now and the best we've gotten out of it in the Buck/Duquette regime has been Flaherty.  Who's been a nice little contributor, but hardly someone that I think the Cubs lament losing.  Maybe Santander can become a contributor as well.  Ultimately these guys aren't protected for a reason.

I like Jay Gibbons, he had a few decent years here.

[Ruzious]

13 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Lucas Long is the only other guy I would have protected.  Hopefully other teams aren’t aware of him (since late round draft pick, underperformed peripherals until this year).  I think he’d be easy to carry much easier than a Jason Garcia type.  

Wilkerson types are common, Means has never had prospect status, Rifaela is too raw and isn’t a 4/5 OFer type, Dosch might get picked if he was flexible defensively but he’s not even very good at 3rd. 

Long's been the guy I think is most likely to get picked off the roster.  He's got versatility and durability to play several different roles, and seems to me the O's can't afford to let go of someone like him who can help in different ways as soon as 2018.  If he gets drafted and does well...  <shakes head> .

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Here are some players who weren't protected by other teams.

 

Victor Reyes- OF -  Arizona -  Just turned 23.   Decent season at AA.   switch hitting corner OF whose extra base hits keep increasing each year.    This kid is much better prospect than anyone we left unprotected.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=622682#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

 

Travis Demeritte -  IF - Braves.  Just turned 23.   Decent season in AA.  Has some power.   Has played some SS but is mostly a 2B-3B.   Teams are going to take a chance on Demeritte before someone like Wilkerson, IMO.    

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=641513#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

 

Jake Cosart - Boston RP -  Just turned 23 and pitched in AA last year.   According to BA (2017 Handbook) he throws 94-99 with a curve that flashes plus.   Control issues.   However, in the 2nd half of the year he threw 21 innings with 8 walks and 28 strikeouts.   Teams take fliers on guys like this.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=656328#/splits/R/pitching/2017/MINORS

 

 Hildemaro Requena, RHP - Boston -   This kid turned 20 in August and pitched in low A ball.    However, in 6 August starts, he went 6-0 with a 0.75 ERA.   Can you imagine if we left this kid unprotected?

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=650387#/splits/R/pitching/2017/MINORS

 

Jordan Guerrero, LHP - White Sox -  Very similar statistically to John Means except he is a year younger

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=622218#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

I don't have time to go through the next 24 or 25 teams but this gives you an idea of the types of players left unprotected.   I expect that the O's will be looking for a LH reliever so it would be interesting to see if there is anyone interesting in that category.

Demermitte had a 306 OBP and a 708 OPS in AA.  I doubt he gets taken.

Cosart is a right-handed reliever that played at AA.  He will not be in as much demand has a lefty or a starter.

Requena - Not too many Rule 5 guys taken out of the Sally league.

Guerrero - He may be taken.

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do you think Long is any better than:

1. Alec Asher

2. Miguel Castro

3. David Hess

4. Gabiel Ynoa

5. Mike Wright

6. Yefry Ramirez

 

I'm sure some, even you, may argue that Long is better than all or some of these guys.   However, this just gives you an idea of RHP's in the upper minors who can both start and relieve.   None of these guys are world beaters.   Most are fringe ML pitchers.   However, I could make a case for a lot of these guys doing the same kind of job, maybe better, that you are suggesting Long might do.     Hess, Wright, Ynoa, and Castro probably all have more upside as relievers and even Philly thinks the chances of Long being a viable ML starter are slim.

The O's had 10 slots on the 40 man roster plus Crichton who could probably be DFA'd if some one better comes along.  The O's don't need to pick Long over any of these guys.  The O's could have had them all on the 40 man.     Wright and Ynoa may just be on the 40 man until the end of ST when the could be DFA'd and outrighted to make space for guys that are signed to minor league contracts.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

The idea that he introduced a new offspeed pitch and had good success with it the last month of the season and least piques my interest in seeing what he does as a starter next year in Norfolk.   

What new pitch? He's always thrown four pitches (fastball, change, slider , curve).

[backwardsk]

LH reliever as a rule V pick is a poor idea, imo.  They have Beier, Hart, Scott.  Don't want to add someone you can't send down when they aren't better than what we have.

If they do go the rule V route, IF is where they should focus.

[OrioleRedenbacher]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The word implementation suggests that it's either a new pitch or one he hadn't been using before.    Just going by what was reported.

The one pitch the O's have continually tried to develop and advance with Hess is a change and they've tried several different variations.  The split-change is the most recent.  So Tony is right in that it's always been a four pitch mix, but the "type" of those pitches has changed.  In that sense, it's a "new" pitch.  His fastball and slider have consistently been his best pitches and his curveball has generally been his weakest, so the O's are looking for a quality change to bridge that gap.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, OrioleRedenbacher said:

The one pitch the O's have continually tried to develop and advance with Hess is a change and they've tried several different variations.  The split-change is the most recent.  So Tony is right in that it's always been a four pitch mix, but the "type" of those pitches has changed.  In that sense, it's a "new" pitch.  His fastball and slider have consistently been his best pitches and his curveball has generally been his weakest, so the O's are looking for a quality change to bridge that gap.

I had to laugh at bit at the Graham interview, the kids has 4 pitches he can throw across as strikes. But, he just needs to be more consistent.

MMMM, if he isn' consistent, he isn't throwing 4 pitches over as strikes.

Hopefully, he is a WIP and does sound like he has potential.

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

LH reliever as a rule V pick is a poor idea, imo.  They have Beier, Hart, Scott.  Don't want to add someone you can't send down when they aren't better than what we have.

If they do go the rule V route, IF is where they should focus.

I have a post coming about this but they have a couple options.

4/5th outfielder candidate - basically looking for Gentry/Rickard replacement with some upside.

Utility IF candidate - to compete with Wilkerson/Sardinas

5th starter candidate - don't laugh, there are some legit options out there as I'll get into when I post about it tonight

With the 3 above options, those are picks you make and if they don't win the job or win the job and don't pan out once the season starts you return them.

Then their is the option of upside picks, guys who definitely aren't ready, think Santander, Garcia, but have a least a shot at being a regular in the future.  You hide those guys on the back of the roster and they don't play much.  I don't think the O's should go that way this year.

Now there are a couple upside guys who might work as middle relief and then be able to start in the future, but for the most part if the Orioles look to use the rule 5 draft again this year they need someone who can contribute.

 

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I had to laugh at bit at the Graham interview, the kids has 4 pitches he can throw across as strikes. But, he just needs to be more consistent.

MMMM, if he isn' consistent, he isn't throwing 4 pitches over as strikes.

Hopefully, he is a WIP and does sound like he has potential.

Hess is a guy that 50% of his starts he doesn't have a feel for his secondaries.  His fastball is hittable even though it has good velocity and he'll go as far as his secondaries take him. I like him more as a reliever where his fastball/slider could play up.

[Number5]

I think there is a much better chance of retaining Long and Gonzalez in our system now than if we had added them to the 40-man roster.  They would clearly have been at the end of the roster and the Orioles would have most like had to try to pass them through waivers at some point during the year.  If a team claimed them then, they are gone forever.  At least in the small chance that a team drafts them in the rule 5 draft, chances are they would be offered back to us anyway.

[Luke-OH]

8 hours ago, Number5 said:

I think there is a much better chance of retaining Long and Gonzalez in our system now than if we had added them to the 40-man roster.  They would clearly have been at the end of the roster and the Orioles would have most like had to try to pass them through waivers at some point during the year.  If a team claimed them then, they are gone forever.  At least in the small chance that a team drafts them in the rule 5 draft, chances are they would be offered back to us anyway.

Gonzalez perhaps, but I'd rank Long over Asher, Crichton, Lee, Liranzo, Yacabonis, and Ramirez.  So no, he wouldn't be on the end of the roster IMO.